Best NRFI Bets Today: Sonny Gray Looks to Respond

We’re over a week into the season, which is giving us some great data points for offenses around the league. The added data is useful for predicting NRFI bets, and the slate seems very profitable for low scoring first innings on Saturday. 

I have targeted three NRFI bets that I’m placing on FanDuel Sportsbook. 

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Best NRFI Bets for Saturday, April 4

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Mets vs. Giants - Clay Holmes vs Landen Roup (9:05 PM EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-138) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The New York Mets face the San Francisco Giants with Clay Holmes matched up against Landen Roupp.

Holmes brings a heavy sinker that consistently produces weak contact, making him well-suited for early-game success. He is 1-0 on the season with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. 

His approach is built around inducing ground balls, which is ideal in the first inning when avoiding extra-base hits is critical. He also has strong strikeout ability, giving this bet a great chance for success. 

Roupp is less established, but his ability to mix pitches and keep hitters guessing gives him a chance to succeed early. He was outstanding in his first start of the year, going six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts and just two walks. 

Younger arms can often benefit from unfamiliarity, and that can work in his favor against a Mets lineup that may need an inning to adjust. The Mets have pop at the top of the lineup, but outside of last night’s game, they haven’t been very strong at the dish. 

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Cubs vs. Guardians - Shota Imanaga vs. Slade Cecconi (7:15 PM EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Chicago Cubs take on the Cleveland Guardians in a matchup featuring Shota Imanaga and Slade Cecconi.

Imanaga has quickly shown he can translate his success with strong command and an ability to keep hitters off balance. Since coming to MLB, he has been one of the most feared pitchers for his arsenal. 

Cecconi offers a different look, relying more on attacking the zone and forcing contact. He has a 12.46 ERA through one game, but this is a rarity. 

The pitcher should bounce back in a significant way against the Cubs. 

Cleveland’s offense is built around contact rather than power, which typically requires multiple hits to generate runs. That’s not an easy task in the first inning, so the NRFI can very profitable when these team’s play. 

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Rays vs. Twins - Steven Matz vs. Mick Abel (7:10 PM EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Tampa Bay Rays face the Minnesota Twins in a matchup featuring Steven Matz and Mick Abel.

Neither pitcher started the season positively, but this is the perfect time to back a NRFI. Each wing has the chance to respond, and they’re each much more talented than they showed in their first game. 

Matz relies on a mix of off-speed pitches and command to keep hitters off balance. He isn’t a strikeout pitcher, but he has made a living on soft contact. 

As long as he doesn’t allow home runs, the Rays should escape the first inning without allowing a run. 

Abel brings intriguing upside with his raw stuff and strikeout potential. He had four strikeouts in 3.1 innings in his first start, but walks were his issue. 

If he cleans up his walks, he should be able to get through the first inning without trouble.

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