Image for Tony Garcia Tony Garcia - October 14, 2022

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Predictions, Betting Odds, Picks

  • Two red hot offenses walk into a series that should have plenty of runs
  • Battle of the lefties on the mound in Game 1
  • X-factors to watch

Odds presented by: DraftKings

Team Run Spread Money Line Total
Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-160)
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+120
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O 8 (-110)
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Houston Astros -1.5 (+140)
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-140
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U 8 (-110)
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Red Sox Vs Astros Predictions

Red Sox at Astros Pick

Both teams have every reason to believe they can win. They put up runs in bunches. They come into the series hot. And their teams are rested. That’s not to mention this is now the fifth consecutive ALCS appearance for Houston and Boston’s seventh since 2003.

We’re going to start this series by expecting Houston to hold serve in what might be the lower scoring affairs as these teams feel one another out.

We’re going to take the Astros money line and the under.

  • Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 overall
  • Red Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 playoff games as an underdog
  • Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 overall
  • Over is 5-1-2 in Red Sox last 8 League Championship games
  • Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 vs. a team with a winning record
  • Houston is 5-2 in last seven head-to-head meetings in Houston
  • Under is 11-3 in last 14 head-to-head meetings
  • Under is 7-1 in last 8 head-to-head meetings in Houston
  • Red Sox are 20-6 in their last 26 Friday games
  • Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite
  • Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 playoff home games
  • Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 overall
  • Astros are 57-19 in their last 76 games following an off day
  • Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 League Championship home games
  • Over is 6-1 in Astros last 7 overall
  • Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 games as a favorite
  • Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record

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Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Predictions

Red hot offenses stole the show in ALDS’

As far as how hot these offenses are, we’re going to talk about the Red Sox first because they have been in the postseason longer this year.

It started when Boston’s Xander Bogaerts hit a two-run shot off Yankees ace Gerrit Cole in the Wild Card game. The Red Sox won that game going away, 6-2.

It was dicey for a bit in the ALDS against the American League-leading Tampa Bay Rays. Boston dropped Game 1 and fell behind 5-2 after the first inning of Game 2.

But over the final 26 innings of the series, the Red Sox offense caught fire, putting up 22 runs to advance to yet another ALCS. And that’s because not just one player is hot, but the entire offense.

Boston has eight batters who are hitting .300 or better in the postseason with at least 15 at bats, of which five have an OPS above 1.000.

J.D. Martinez is leading the way, hitting .467 (7-of-15) with one home run and 4 RBIs,  Kike Hernandez is batting .435 (10-of-23) with two home runs and six RBIs, while Rafael Devers, Kyle Schwarber, and Bogaerts all have multiple home runs as well.

On the flip side, Houston is almost just as hot having scored 31 runs in the past four games.

Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Kyle Tucker all have OPS’ of 1.000 or better so far this postseason while Alex Bregman and Michael Brantley are both hitting better than .365 as the best offense in baseball shows no signs of slowing down.

Southpaws to face off in Game 1

It remains to be seen what he will be able to give them, but Chris Sale has been given the ball to start this series for the American League pennant for the Red Sox.

A Cy Young candidate when he’s healthy, Sale was on the injured list until mid-August and made just nine starts in the regular season — throwing more than 90 pitches just one time all season.

He still had a nice stretch to end the season, going 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA and 52 strikeouts in 42.2 innings — but his 1.34 WHIP was higher than he’d like it to be without question.

He will be countered by Framber Valdez who had rather similar numbers, just over a longer period of time. Like Sale, he missed a few months with an injury to open the season and finished the year 11-6 overall with a 3.14 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 125 strikeouts in 134.2 innings.

Contrary to what one might assume, he’s actually better against righties (.626 OPS against) than lefties (.717 OPS).

X-factors to watch

For Houston, the x-factor is going to be Yuli Gurriel. During the regular season, nobody on the Astros was better against lefties than Gurriel. The first baseman hit a team-best .326 with eight home runs, 34 RBIs and .925 OPS.

However, he’s struggled in the postseason, going just 3-of-17 with no extra-base hits through four games.

Bobby Dalbec is the x-factor for the Red Sox. He led the team in home runs (11) and RBIs (39) vs. left-handed pitching this season and was red-hot in 61 postseason games, hitting .269 with a .955 OPS in 15 games.

That said he hasn’t done anything of note in the playoffs to this point — he’s 0-of-10 in five games.

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How to Watch Red Sox vs Astros

Event Information
Teams Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
Location Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Time Friday, Oct. 15, 8:07  p.m. EST
How to watch FOX

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Tony Garcia

188 Articles

Tony writes about baseball for WSN.com after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.

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