Pennzoil 400: Kyle Busch Goes for Two Victories in a Row at His Home Track in Sin City

• Kyle Busch goes for two victories in a row at his home track in Sin City.
• You can’t discount Ross Chastain, who leads the series for the first time.
• Unlike Fontana, Las Vegas is a great track for Fords—and for Joey Logano.

Pennzoil 400 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Our Picks for the Pennzoil 400

Joey Logano to win the race at +800

Any Ford to win the race at +290       

Chase Elliott top beat Denny Hamlin head-to-head at -110

Brad Keselowski as our extreme long-shot pick at +5000

Pennzoil 400 Predictions

At Hometown Track, Kyle Busch Goes for Second Straight Win

Kyle Busch wasted no time in proving he’s just as talented as ever after an offseason move from Joe Gibbs Racing to Richard Childress Racing.

In the final NASCAR Cup Series race on Auto Club Speedway’s two-mile configuration, Busch triumphed in his second start with Childress, affirming that, at age 37, the Las Vegas native is still far from the twilight of his career.

Busch is doing triple duty this weekend, racing in the NASCAR Xfinity Series and Craftsman Truck Series as well as the Cup Series.

You can count on him to post a top-five finish roughly half the time. In 23 Cup starts at Las Vegas, Busch has 11 top fives and 14 top 10s to his credit.

Winning is another matter. Busch’s only victory at LVMS came in 2009, and we don’t expect that to change on Sunday. Accordingly, we don’t recommend a “win” bet on Busch as the favorite at +600 via DraftKings Sportsbook.

After Breakout Season, Ross Chastain Is off to a Strong Start

In 2023, Ross Chastain rewarded Trackhouse Racing owner Justin Marks with two victories and a second-place finish in the NASCAR Cup Series standings.

In the first two points races of 2023, Chastain ran ninth in the Daytona 500 and third in the Pala Casino 400 at Fontana after sweeping the first two stages in the latter event.

Those performances jumped the driver of the No. 1 Trackhouse Chevrolet to the top of the series standings, one point ahead of Joey Logano.

Though Chastain finished third in last year’s spring race at Vegas and second to Logano in the fall Playoff race, we don’t expect him to improve one more position on Sunday.

So we’re not betting on Chastain to win at +800 via DraftKings.

Joey Logano Is Our Pick to Win on a Good Track for Fords

Last week at Auto Club Speedway, we steered you away from Ford drivers, who had won only one of the previous 14 races at the two-mile track.

With Kyle Busch winning the Pala Casino 400 in a Chevy, Ford drivers are now one for the last 15 at the track.

But Las Vegas Motor Speedway is much more conducive to the Blue Ovals. Joey Logano won last year’s Playoff race, and Ford drivers have won seven of the last 14 Cup events at the track.

Logano and Brad Keselowski, both Ford drivers, have won three races each at Las Vegas, tied for most among full-time active drivers.

We like Logano to win the race at +800 via DraftKings. And for an extreme long shot, Keselowski—in his second year as an owner/driver at Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing—is worth a bet at +5000 via DraftKings.

Those Keselowski odds are far too long.    

Based on His Vegas Stats, Brad Keselowski Is an Undervalued Commodity

Drivers often develop a knack for a particular track. That’s certainly true of Brad Keselowski and Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

In his last 13 starts at LVMS, dating to 2013, Keselowski has finished worse than seventh only once (13th in the 2020 fall race). His record during that span includes three wins, a pair of runner-up finishes and two third-place runs.

In other words, Keselowski has finished in a podium position seven times in his last 13 starts in Sin City.

Accordingly, we think it’s a no-brainer to place a top-three bet (+750 at DraftKings) on the new co-owner of Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing.

We don’t think Brad has the speed necessary to win the race, but it’s almost certain he’ll find a way to finish near the front, despite his move from Team Penske to his new role with RFK—even though Roush cars haven’t won a race since 2017.

How to Watch the Pennzoil 400

·         What: Pennzoil 400 NASCAR Cup Series Race

·         Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway

·         When: Sunday, Mar. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET

·         How to Watch: FOX