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Pennzoil 400 Prediction: Kyle Larson Looks to Maintain Admirable Record

Written by: Reid Spencer
Updated March 1, 2024
8 min read
  • William Byron should be strong in defense of last season’s Vegas Victory.

  • Joey Logano seeks major turnaround after ill fortune on superspeedways.

  • Kyle Larson has an enviable record at the intermediate track in Sin City.

Pennzoil 400 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook. Click the odds in the table below to place your bets at DraftKings.

Driver Odds
Kyle Larson +450
William Byron +900
Kyle Busch +900
Ryan Blaney +1000
Ross Chastain +1000
Denny Hamlin +1000
Christopher Bell +1000
Joey Logano +1100
Tyler Reddick +1200
Martin Truex Jr. +1400
Brad Keselowski +1400

Our Picks for the Pennzoil 400

Pennzoil 400 Predictions

Pennzoil 400 Predictions

Defending Race Winner William Byron Hopes to Continue Stellar Season

Having shown excellent speed in the two superspeedway races this season, Daytona 500 winner William Byron is eager to see how his No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet will perform under NASCAR’s intermediate speedway rules.

Byron won the Pennzoil 400 last year, seizing the lead from Martin Truex Jr. during a two-lap overtime shootout. He swept the first two stages of a NASCAR Cup Series race for the first time in his career and led 176 of the 271 laps.

But Byron knows that speed of superspeedways doesn’t necessarily translate to speed on tracks that feature the intermediate package. Hence, Sunday’s race is still a question mark.

“I’m curious to see who’s fast, who’s got the aero advantage or disadvantage, and where all that stacks up,” Byron said.

“You can do a lot of work in the wind tunnel and all these things, but when you get to the race track, that’s the proof. So we’ll see. Hopefully, we’re really good. Hopefully, our car drives well.”

Chances are that Byron’s car will have its customary speed at Las Vegas, and he’s fairly priced at +900 via DraftKings Sportsbook. But he’s not our first choice to win the race (though we like him to beat Denny Hamlin head-to-head at -115).

Joey Logano Needs Major Turnaround at a Track Where He Excels

It’s not that Joey Logano hasn’t shown excellent speed so far this season—he won the pole position for the season-opening Daytona 500 and qualified second for last week’s Atlanta race.

Unfortunately, Logano’s results haven’t matched his performance in time trials. He had one of the most potent cars in the Daytona 500 on race day, but a massive wreck late in the race collected him.

At Atlanta, Logano worked his way to the front after starting from the rear of the field under a penalty for a personal safety equipment violation (unapproved driving glove). Once again, he was KO’d in a late wreck.

Logano enters the Vegas race 31st in the Cup standings, needing a strong finish to climb out of the early-season hole. The good news is that Las Vegas is one of his best tracks.

Logano has three wins at the 1.5-mile speedway, tied with former Team Penske teammate Brad Keselowski for most among full-time active Cup drivers. In 21 starts, he boasts an average finish of 10.0.

Though Logano is not our first choice to win the Pennzoil 400, we recommend a hedge bet to win on the driver of the No. 22 Ford at a generous +1100 via DraftKings.

Kyle Larson Is a Formidable Force as Cup Series Moves to Sin City

Kyle Larson can breathe a sign of relief now that the two season-opening superspeedway races are behind him.

Larson had fast cars at both Daytona and Atlanta, but his finishes weren’t an accurate reflection of the speed his No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets carried. The 2021 Cup champion remains winless on tracks that mandate the superspeedway competition package.

Las Vegas is another matter. In his six starts there since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2021, Larson has finished first or second in four of his last six races at the track. In winning last year’s Playoff race at Vegas, Larson swept both stages and led a race-high 133 laps.

In 15 career starts at the speedway, Larson has recorded an average finish of 9.9, with 11 top-10s.

Those stats argue in Larson’s favor this Sunday, and we like him to win his second straight Las Vegas race at +450 via DraftKings.

Note: Pay attention to the second starting position after Saturday’s qualifying session (11:50 a.m. ET). Byron and Larson have won the last two Vegas races from that spot on the grid.

How to Watch the Pennzoil 400

  • What: Pennzoil 400 NASCAR Cup Series Race

  • Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway

  • When: Sunday, March 3, 3:30 p.m. ET

  • How to Watch: FOX

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Reid Spencer

222 Articles

Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]

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