Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction and Odds: Who Will Take the Crucial 3-2 Lead?

The Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Indiana Pacers for Game 5 of the NBA Finals with the series tied 2-2 on Monday night.

The Thunder kept their title hopes alive with a Game 4 win after they’d trailed 2-1 through three games. They came up trumps in the fourth quarter, winning 31-17 after they’d lost every previous quarter to finish with a 111-104 victory.

The Pacers already stole Game 1 in Oklahoma City to open the series thanks to another trademark Tyrese Haliburton clutch bucket. They’ve matched the Thunder’s level of intensity and found ways to maintain their elite offensive efficiency, though they’re still huge underdogs to win the series (+400).

Here, I will break down the Thunder vs. Pacers betting odds and share my best bets for the Game 5 matchup.

For more betting insights on Game 5, check our NBA Finals Player Props and Best Bets.

Pacers vs. Thunder Betting Odds for Monday, June 16

The Thunder are 62-37-4 (62.6 percent) against the spread, 35-15-2 (70 percent) ATS at home, and 60-36-4 (62.5 percent) ATS as a favorite.

The Pacers are 49-50-3 (49.5 percent) ATS, 26-25 (51 percent) ATS on the road, and 25-19-1 (56.8 percent) ATS as an underdog. 

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets*.

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Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction

Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

The Thunder are getting all they can handle from a +500 series underdog.

As if the Thunder hadn’t quelled the concerns over their lack of maturity and playoff experience with their Game 7 blowout win against the Denver Nuggets, their ability to dominate the fourth quarter on the road to bring the series back to 2-2 spoke volumes. MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 15 points and had 35 in the game, giving him a series average of 32.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.5 steals on 48.4 percent shooting.

OKC holds a slight advantage in the series with a -3.3 net rating. The teams are stuck at a 50 percent rebound rate each, while the Thunder lead in turnover percentage (14 to 17.5 percent), but the Pacers are ahead in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.37 to 1.16) and true shooting percentage (58.6 to 57.5).

Head Coach Mark Daigneault made the decision to put Isaiah Hartenstein back into the starting lineup for the first time all series in Game 4. While the Thunder seem to struggle to stay out of rotation and to match the Pacers’ pace with Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren on the floor together, the pair posted a stingy defensive rating of 87 and a 61.5 percent rebound rate during 21 minutes of shared court time.

Daigneault also leaned away from his bench to the greatest extent of the playoffs. Alex Caruso played 30 minutes, but Cason Wallace, who’d started the first three games, and Kenrich Williams were the only other reserves to play at least 10 minutes (19 and 11).

There are many questions heading into Game 5, but one of the biggest is how the Thunder can create quality three-point looks. They were only 3-16 (18.8 percent) in Game 4, shockingly low numbers in volume and efficiency.

This approach by Indy’s defense is designed to create a mathematical imbalance as discussed by Boston Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla. The Pacers can afford to give up more free throws and easy two-point looks if they shut off the water at the most important spot on the court.

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Indiana Pacers Preview

The Pacers have already defied the odds to get to this point. Anything else is a bonus in the eyes of the sportsbooks, but that means little to a team that is two wins away from its first title in franchise history.

Indy did what the Thunder normally do to its opponents in Game 4, relying on depth (every bench player who saw action played at least 12 minutes) and turning defense to offense, scoring 23 points off of 13 OKC turnovers.

The Pacers did not shoot well around the rim their last time out but made 30.6 percent of their 36 attempts, giving them an additional 24 points from three compared to the Thunder. Even in a loss, that’s a sign that their defense is giving them the chance to succeed.

Speaking of the Finals, the teams are only 0.1 percent apart in efficiency. The difference is that Indy attempted 35.5 threes per game, while OKC only got up 26 per game. That’s far different from the regular season when the Thunder attempted 38.8 and the Pacers were at 35.8 per game.

The takeaway here is that Head Coach Rick Carlisle believes he’s found a schematic weakness in the Thunder’s offense. That likely has to do with defending Gilgeous-Alexander’s drives without showing much help, limiting his ability to spray the ball out to open shooters in the corner. Andrew Nembhard also deserves tremendous credit here for the excellent defense he’s played on the MVP.

Haliburton still hasn’t scored more than 22 points in a game in the series, but he was far more assertive in Games 3 and 4. He and Pascal Siakam, the two best players on the Pacers, have an important role to play in Game 5 since role players historically find it tougher to play on the road.

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Pacers vs. Thunder Betting Pick

• Pacers vs. Thunder pick: Pacers +9.5 (-110) at BetMGM

This has been one of the most entertaining Finals of the 21st century. The play has been restless, intense, and captivating for a variety of reasons.

The teams are both 2-2 against the spread in the series and 1-1 at each venue. The Pacers have been very productive against the spread on the road and as an underdog during the playoffs, and as dominant as the Thunder’s numbers are, Indy has proven time and time again that they can hang with the favorites.

Game 5 could easily end in a Thunder win, but the Pacers are still in with a chance outright. For that reason, a 9.5-point line is too much, and I will be betting the Pacers at +9.5.

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How to Watch Pacers vs. Thunder on 6/16/25

• When: Monday, June 16 @ 8:30 p.m. ET

• Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

• TV: ABC