Is Defense Optional in Michigan vs Alabama Sweet 16 Showdown?

Without that many upsets in the Round of 32, there aren’t many David vs Goliath matchups in the Sweet 16 this year. However, one game that undoubtedly stands out in terms of entertainment value is Friday’s Midwest Region semifinal between top-ranked Michigan and no. 4-seeded Alabama. 

During the regular season, these were two of the highest-scoring teams in the country. That trend has continued for both the Wolverines and the Crimson Tide during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. That figures to set up a matchup Friday night in which defense is optional, leading to an entertaining shootout with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line.

Before we get into more details, be sure to check up on the latest NCAA Tournament odds and favorites.

The Tide Rolls Up and Down

For as long as Nate Oats has been in Tuscaloosa, the Crimson Tide has been one of the highest-scoring teams in the country. That’s been the case again this season, as Alabama ranks third nationally with 91.6 points per game. They’ve scored exactly 90 points per game in each of their first two tournament games, so playing top competition hasn’t slowed them down. Even in the Round of 32 against a Texas Tech team that allowed just 73.1 points per game, the Crimson Tide couldn’t be stopped.

Of course, the pace at which Alabama plays has a lot to do with its high-scoring offense; the Crimson Tide is surpassingly efficient. Alabama ranks among the top-10 nationally in scoring 1.19 points per possession. The Crimson Tide has a reputation for taking and making a lot of three-point shots. While that is undoubtedly a part of the game plan, Alabama also ranks among the top teams nationally in offensive rebounds, using its size and athleticism to get multiple shots per possession.

Perhaps the biggest surprise with the Crimson Tide is that they take care of the ball despite playing at a breakneck pace. Alabama averaged fewer than 10 turnovers per game this season, which is shocking for a team that is always playing fast and aggressively. With 16.1 assists per game, the Tide had one of the top assist-to-turnover ratios in the nation this season, making them difficult to handle for any opposing defense.

Wolverines Have Looked Unstoppable

While Alabama’s reputation as a fast-paced, high-scoring team precedes the Crimson Tide, don’t sleep on how the Wolverines have looked offensively during Dustin May’s second season in Ann Arbor. Michigan finished just outside the top 10 nationally in scoring, averaging 87.4 points per game. 

At times, the physicality of the Big Ten managed to slow them down. But the Wolverines have hit their stride during the NCAA Tournament. They scored 101 points in their first-round win over Howard and then lit up the scoreboard for 95 points in the Round of 32 against Saint Louis. While those aren’t the most defensively savvy teams in the country, Michigan’s point totals in those two games are a testament to what the Wolverines are capable of doing without a lot of defensive resistance.

Granted, Michigan’s approach is a little different. The Wolverines are more focused on working inside-out, scoring inside to set up the perimeter game rather than chucking three-pointers like Alabama does. The Michigan frontcourt does most of the scoring, making guards like Elliot Cadeau more complementary scorers. As one of the national leaders in both assists and offensive rebounds, that approach is working wonders for the Wolverines.

Win With Offense

Even if the approach is different, both Alabama and Michigan have thrived this season in high-scoring affairs. The Wolverines have been among the most dominant teams overall, boasting a 33-3 record, including a 19-1 record in the Big Ten, which sent nine teams to the NCAA Tournament. Michigan is also 25-1 when scoring at least 80 points and unbeaten when reaching 90 points, something the Wolverines did 14 times, including nine games with 100-plus points.

Alabama had similar success in high-scoring games, as the Tide grew accustomed to playing shootouts. The Crimson Tide was 25-9 overall, but went 21-1 when scoring at least 90 points. The obvious caveat is that Alabama gave up 82.5 points per game during the season, forcing the Tide to score at least 90 points to win.

The Limit Does Not Exist

With both teams knowing that reaching 90 points is likely the key to victory, this is bound to be a high-scoring game between two efficient offensive teams. This game has the highest over/under of the Sweet 16 by far, with Caesars Sportsbook listing it at 174.5 points. That’s a lot for a college basketball game, but with both teams aiming for at least 90 points, I’m leaning toward the over.

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