Will John Calipari Win His Second National Championship?

In his second year with Arkansas, John Calipari has been able to lead the Razorbacks to the Sweet Sixteen, now just four wins away from securing his second National Championship. The Razorbacks certainly have the offense to make a deep run in the tournament, ranking near the top of the board in Adjusted Offensive Rating.

Heading into Thursday, Arkansas’s run may come to an end as they face off against the Arizona Wildcats who are arguably the most well-rounded team in the nation. Especially with their defense failing to give them the production they need to help slow down Arizona, forcing the Razorbacks to play in a highly volatile contest which drastically lowers their chances of winning.

A Not So Sweet Sixteen Matchup

After narrowly beating High Point in the round of 32, Arkansas now faces off against Arizona who is currently listed as one of the betting favorites to win the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats have built a case for being one of the best teams in the league this year, ranking in the top-5 in Adjusted Offensive Rating and in Adjusted Defensive Rating.

If the Razorbacks are going to upset the Wildcats, then their offense must continue to play at a high level to help mask their struggles on defense. Luckily for Arkansas, they field a dynamic lineup who is capable of taking care of the ball while creating high-quality shot attempts at multiple levels of the court, ranking well above league average in Effective Field Goal Percentage and in Turnovers Allowed.

Leading the Razorbacks is Darius Acuff Jr, a versatile guard who helps create space for his spot up shooters when he relentlessly attacks the rim, averaging 23.3 Points and 6.5 Assists per game while shooting 48.6% from the field. With the Wildcats ranking outside the top-150 in Havoc, Acuff will be able to avoid making costly mistakes, keeping the Razorbacks possessions alive to help match their output.

Unfortunately for Acuff, his production alone will not be enough to keep it close on the scoreboard as the Wildcats should face minimal resistance in their efforts of scoring, exploiting a Razorbacks defense who ranks near dead last in Opposing Two Point Completion Percentage. With the Wildcats scoring at a consistent rate, Arkansas will need to be near perfect just to keep it close. A level of play that is unsustainable, halting the Razorbacks run in the tournament.

Would Lightning Be Able to Strike Twice?

If Arkansas could shock the nation and get past Arizona, their projected path to the National Championship would be formidable, kicking things off with a potential date against Purdue who is currently firing on all cylinders. Since the Big Ten Conference tournament, the Boilermakers have been red hot on offense, leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.

Meeting them in the Final Four would most likely be Michigan, a Wolverines team who rivals the Wildcats in regard to Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Rating. A daunting matchup for the Razorbacks who lack the production on defense that is needed to slow down their assault in the interior as the Wolverines excel at using their size and length in the paint to generate high quality shots near the rim.

After Michigan would be another matchup against a one seed, battling it out against the Duke Blue Devils who were able to quickly round back into form after a shockingly poor performance against Siena in the first round. With clear advantages on both sides of the court, it’s tough to see how the Razorbacks could squeak out the win, let alone make it to the finals in the first place.

How to Bet on Arkansas

While it’s been a delight to see Acuff Jr light up the scoreboard, the Razorbacks run in the tournament is poised to come to an end as the Wildcats will overwhelm them with their versatile offense. Their low level of play on defense will bring in way too much negative variance into the contest, making it hard for their offense to keep them competitive. Avoid laying a wager on any Razorbacks futures and consider betting on Arizona to cover the spread at no higher than -7.5.

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