Saquon Barkley was held to just 3.6 Yards per Carry against the Buffalo Bills
The Philadelphia Eagles are listed as one of the betting favorites to win the NFC
The San Francisco 49ers rank below league average in Run Defense PFF Grade
After winning the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award last year, Saquon Barkley has fallen hard back down to reality as the Philadelphia Eagles running back is averaging fewer Yards per Carry than he did last season. Luckily for Barkley, he will have a great opportunity to round back into form in Sunday’s playoff matchup against San Francisco as he faces off against a 49ers front seven who struggles to stop the run.
See the favorites and latest odds for NFL Offensive Player of the Year award winner this season.
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Since the start of the regular season, Saquon Barkley has struggled to play at a competitive level as the Philadelphia Eagles running back ranks below league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. A stunning turnaround from the former Offensive Player of the Year award winner when factoring in the support he receives from his offensive line as the Eagles front five ranks top-15 in Run Block Set Grade.
In a highly anticipated playoff matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, expect Barkley to round back into dominant form as he faces off against a front seven who ranks well below league average in Run Defense PFF Grade. For some more exposure, escalator bet Barkley’s Rushing Yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.
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Even though Barkley has struggled in the middle of the field, he has still been the focal point of the Eagles offense when in scoring position as he comfortably leads the team in Red Zone Carries with a 76.8% Usage Rate. With AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith pulling defensive attention away from the middle, the width of Barkley’s running lanes past the trenches will widen which increases his probability of finding the back of the end zone.
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While Barkley has struggled, Jalen Hurts has been able to keep the Eagles competitive as the former Super Bowl MVP ranks above league average in Quarterback EPA per Play and in Turnover Worthy Play Percentage. With the 49ers front seven ranking near the bottom of the board in Pass Rush Win Rate, their lack of pressure will allow Hurts to set his feet instead of having to throw on the run which will drastically increase the quality of his throws.
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After missing a majority of 2024-25 with an injury, Christian McCaffrey was able to stay on the field this season as he managed to play in all 17 games. While his availability did help him stuff the stat sheet, McCaffrey was very inefficient with his usage as he ranks near dead last in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. Even when running behind an offensive line who ranks top-3 in Line Yards, McCaffrey was unable to extend plays with his legs as he averaged just 3.9 Yards per Carry.
Heading into Sunday, expect McCaffrey to struggle to break through the trenches as he faces off against an Eagles defense who excels at stuffing the run as their above league average mark in Run Defense PFF Grade indicates. With McCaffrey getting bottled up at the line of scrimmage, the 49ers may revert to a heavier dose of the pass to counter their front seven which will chip away at his total number of Rush Attempts.
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