Mark Andrews has converted 80% of his Red Zone Receptions into touchdowns
The Buffalo Bills' James Cook is currently averaging 5.4 Yards per Carry
The Cincinnati Bengals defense ranks dead last in Def Pass Rush WIn Rate
Since the start of the regular season, the Cincinnati Bengals' defense have been abysmal as they currently rank near dead last in most key defensive metrics. Their inability to collapse the pocket bodes well for Mark Andrews as the Baltimore Ravens tight end will have more time in the open field to break away from their coverage and create a high-quality passing lane for Lamar Jackson to throw to.
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Even after re-tooling their offense, Mark Andrews has still been Lamar Jackson’s favorite pass catcher to throw to as the Baltimore Ravens tight end leads the team in total Red Zone Targets. While his Reception Rate is less to be desired, Andrews has been able to capitalize on his scoring opportunities when he does haul one in as he has converted 80% of his Receptions into touchdowns.
In an AFC North divisional matchup against Cincinnati, the Baltimore Ravens will be able to move the ball down the field at a higher rate as they face off against a Bengals defense who ranks near dead last in Pass Rush Win Rate. With Lamar getting to set his feet instead of having to take off and run, Andrews will generate a higher volume of Red Zone Targets which increases his chances of scoring.
For more info on divisional standings, check out the latest AFC North odds and predictions.
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After making his frustrations with the offense known to the media, AJ Brown has seen an increase in his usage rate as the Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver has generated over 10 Targets in his last two games. Jalen Hurts has also force fed him the ball when inside the 20 as Brown has leapt up the board in total Red Zone Targets with a 47.6% Target Share.
Fortunately for Brown, he will have a great opportunity to capitalize on his heavier workload as he faces off against a Chicago Bears defense who ranks well below league average in Def DVOA. Especially with Saquon Barkley forcing the Bears to stack the box to mask their struggles with stopping the run as this will free up more space on the outside for Brown to exploit.
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Heading into week 13, the Los Angeles Rams have started to separate themselves from the rest of the field as they are listed as the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl. Their ground game has played a major role in their success as Kyren Williams ranks above league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt while running behind an offensive line who leads the league in Run Block PFF Grade.
In a favorable matchup against Carolina, expect Williams to build on his momentum as he faces off against a Panthers front seven who resides near the bottom of the board in Run Defense Line Yards. For some more exposure, escalator bet Williams anytime touchdown scorer prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.
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Even though the Buffalo Bills' offense disappointed as a whole in last week’s loss to Houston, James Cook was still able to put together a productive performance as he finished the contest with 116 Rushing Yards and 1 Rushing Touchdown. With the Pittsburgh Steelers ranking below league average in Def EPA and in Run Defense Win Rate, expect Cook to continue to generate explosive runs and score his ninth rushing touchdown of the season.
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