Trevor Lawrence had 22 touchdowns and four interceptions in his final seven games
The Bills led the league in rushing yards per game, but were 30th in yards allowed per carry
The Jags allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, but faced the fewest carries per game
The upstart Jacksonville Jaguars will match wits with the seasoned Buffalo Bills in the AFC Playoffs on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET.
The Jaguars were one of the best teams down the stretch, winning their final eight games to finish the year at 13-4. Trevor Lawrence rose to third in NFL MVP odds, and the defense finished the year playing at a top-five level.
On the other side, Josh Allen is back in the playoffs, but he isn’t facing Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Joe Burrow. The expectations are always present in Buffalo, but this feels like the least pressure he’s been under since he ascended into MVP conversations.
Here, I will break down my top Bills vs. Jaguars same-game parlay picks and player props for the AFC Wild Card matchup.
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| Best Bills vs Jaguars SGP Picks | Odds | Claim $300 in Bonus Bets at FanDuel |
|---|---|---|
| Leg 1: Josh Allen Under 32.5 Passing Attempts | -114 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 2: Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing TD | -106 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 3: James Cook Over 78.5 Rushing Yards | -114 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 4: Travis Etienne Under 15.5 Longest Rush | -122 | CLAIM HERE |
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Ever since Joe Brady showed up in town, there’s been a strong emphasis on establishing and remaining committed to running the football. That’s part of why Allen went under this line in four of his last five games and in 12 of 16 overall.
The Jaguars allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (85.6), but they also faced the fewest rushing attempts per game. Buffalo led the league in average time of possession and rushed for more yards per game than any team, and it feels like a near-guarantee that they will keep their eyes on the ground more than they keep them in the air.
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Lawrence finished the year playing the best football of his career. He had six and four touchdowns in back-to-back weeks over the last month, and he beat this line in six of his final seven outings en route to 29 passing touchdowns (fifth) on the year.
The Bills can score points, and there will be pressure on the Jaguars to respond in kind. Additionally, Liam Coen is an aggressive coach who is willing to take his chances on fourth down, giving Lawrence more opportunities to sniff out a Bills defense that allowed just 1.1 passing touchdowns per game (sixth).
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For all of the same reasons outlined in the Josh Allen player prop section, the Bills can be expected to run the air out of the football. That approach will heavily involve Cook, who led the NFL with 1,621 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per carry (second).
While Allen’s production as a runner certainly helps Cook, he still beat this line in five of his final six games, excluding the 15 yards on two carries he got in Week 18. The Jags only gave up 3.9 yards per carry (fourth), so this is a real strength-on-strength battle between two of the AFC’s best.
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Do you know which contender gave up the third-most rushing yards per game at 5.1? That would be the Bills, whose embarrassing run defense was a flagrant issue for them nearly all season.
With that being said, Etienne hasn’t proven himself to be the most explosive back during his professional career. He finished the year running for 4.2 yards per carry and only logged more than 3.7 yards per carry one time in his final six games, and he also cashed the under in six of his last nine contests.
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