The Denver Broncos odds to win the Super Bowl have steadily grown
The Kansas City Chiefs Chris Oladokun is getting the start at quarterback
Denver’s defense ranks ranks top-5 in Def DVOA and in Pass Rush Win Rate
With two games left in the regular season, the Denver Broncos must win out should they want to hold on to the first overall seed in the AFC. Luckily for the surging Super Bowl contenders, their defense will have the opportunity to thrive on Thursday night as they face off against the Kansas City Chiefs who are deploying their third string quarterback Chris Oladokun after Gardner Minshew went down with an injury.
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As if the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback situation could not get any worse after Patrick Mahomes suffered a season ending injury, their back up Garnder Minshew followed suit when he went down in last week’s contest against Tennessee. With both quarterbacks on IR, the Chiefs third string quarterback Chris Oladokun is expected to make his first start under center after he filled in for Minshew last Sunday.
While Oladokun did manage to complete 68.75% of his passes against the Titans, negative regression looms large as he faces off against a Denver Broncos defense who ranks top-5 in Pass Rush Win Rate. With the Broncos forcing Oladokun to scramble out of the pocket, the quality of his throws will harshly decline which reduces his chances of connecting with his receivers.
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Since the start of the regular season, Isaiah Pacheco has struggled to play at a competitive level as the Chiefs running back resides near the bottom of the board in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. A stunning performance when you factor in the high quality running lanes his offensive line provides as the Chiefs front five ranks above league average in Run Block Set Grade.
Unfortunately for Pacheco, his struggles in the backfield are poised to persist as he faces off against a Broncos front seven who ranks fifth overall in Run Defense PFF Grade. Especially with Oladokun expected to struggle in the pocket as the Broncos will be able to stack the box at a higher rate which will make it easier for them to clog Pacheco’s running lanes in the trenches.
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After J.K. Dobbins went down with an injury, RJ Harvey has been able to capitalize on his heavier workload as the Broncos running back is averaging 4.0 Yards per Carry and over 1 touchdown per game in his last four games. Harvey has also played a role in their pass sets as he is averaging over 30.0 Receiving Yards per game in that span as well.
Heading into Thursday night, expect Harvey to build on his momentum as he faces off against a Chiefs defense who ranks dead last in Run Defense Line Yards. For some more exposure, escalator bet Harvey’s rushing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs at the best available odds.
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When near the goal line, Troy Franklin has been a reliable pass catcher for Bo Nix to throw to as the Broncos wide receiver leads the team in Red Zone Targets while converting 13 of his 16 into Receptions. With Harvey pulling defensive attention to the middle, Franklin will be able to capitalize on the single coverage he receives and create a passing lane for Nix to throw to.
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