Best Chargers vs. Patriots Prop Bets: MVP Maye or Harbaugh & Herbert?

• Drake Maye finished fourth in the NFL in passing yards

• TreyVeyon Henderson scored at least two touchdowns in four of his last eight games

• Neither team won a playoff game since 2018

The Los Angeles Chargers will visit the New England Patriots for the two-versus-seven AFC Wild Card matchup in the NFL Playoffs on Sunday.

The Pats’ regime is led by second-year quarterback Drake Maye, who is one of the top candidates for the MVP trophy. His team was a sparkling 14-3 during the regular season and won 13 of their final 14 games, but this team hasn’t won a playoff game since Tom Brady was in town. See our latest NFL MVP odds and predictions here.

The Chargers overcame a plethora of injuries to book their ticket to the playoffs for the second straight season under Jim Harbaugh. Justin Herbert had to shoulder a heavy burden, but he’s gotten more support from his healthy and returning teammates heading into the do-or-die portion of the year.

Here, I will reveal and break down my top Chargers vs. Patriots prop picks and bets for the AFC Wild Card showdown.

Best Chargers vs. Patriots Prop Bets

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Justin Herbert Most Passing Yards (+116) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Herbert was given a tall task this year, playing behind what graded as the worst offensive line in professional football. He was up and down at times, but he finished the season with 300 passing yards against the Dallas Cowboys and 236 against the Houston Texans, which is actually a very impressive number, considering the talent they have.

Maye didn’t throw for more than 294 or fewer than 203 yards until his bye week, but he went for 155, 380, 256, and 191 in the following weeks. The Chargers have a top-five defense and more experience, and if the Chargers are playing from behind, there will be even more of a reason for Herbert to sling the ball around the field.

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Drake Maye Under 24.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

I expect this game to take on an unexpected defensive identity, where both teams prioritize ball possession and getting off of the field on third down. That fits into why I don’t think that this is going to be a huge passing day for Maye, who is making the first start of his playoff career.

The Pats’ leader split the over/under at nine games apiece during the regular season. The Chargers, however, only gave up 18.6 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, right in the middle of the league, and were sixth in sack percentage. That means they did a nice job of translating pressures to sacks, which would go a long way to keeping Maye under his total.

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TreVeyon Henderson Anytime TD Scorer (+125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Henderson was an explosive player, only scoring in four of his final eight games, but scoring at least two touchdowns in all of those. He also had a pair of touchdowns in 13 carries in a dominant Week 18 victory against the Miami Dolphins.

The Chargers ranked ninth in the NFL in points allowed per game (20.0), so the Patriots are going to have to be efficient when they are in the red zone. That means no time for games and sticking to what works, which is slamming the ball between the tackles with your playmaking running back.

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Ladd McConkey Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

If Herbert is going to have a strong day throwing the football like I expect, then there has to be a receiver who answers the call as well. Why can’t that be McConkey, the Chargers’ leading receiver, and a player who is capable of lining up all over the line of scrimmage?

McConkey’s numbers plummeted down the stretch, and he went under in five of his final six games. With that being said, plays are going to need to be made through the air, and as the best receiver on the team, the second-year Georgia product is going to get his opportunities—he just needs to capitalize on them.

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