The Kansas City Chiefs are currently out of the playoff picture
Patrick Mahomes' odds to win the MVP award have steadily declined
The Dallas Cowboys' defense ranks near dead last in Def EPA
After beating the Indianapolis Colts, the Kansas City Chiefs must continue to string together their wins as they are currently out of the playoff picture heading into week 13. Luckily for the Super Bowl contenders, Patrick Mahomes will have a great opportunity to put together a dominant performance on Thanksgiving as he faces off against the Dallas Cowboys who severely underwhelm in coverage.
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Even though the Kansas City Chiefs have struggled as a whole, Patrick Mahomes has still been able to play at a very high level as the former two time MVP ranks above league average in Quarterback EPA per play and in Big Time Throw Percentage. His offensive line has played a major role in his success as the Chiefs front five resides near the top of the board in Pass Block Set Grade.
In a favorable matchup against Dallas, Mahomes will have a great opportunity to build on his momentum as he faces off against a Cowboys front seven who ranks below league average in Pass Rush Win Rate. With less pressure crashing down on him, the amount of Havoc in Mahomes throws will drastically decline which will increase his chances of connecting with his receivers.
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The Cowboys lack of pressure will also give the Chiefs pass catchers more time in their routes to break away from their coverage which will help widen the width of Mahomes passing lanes. With more space between them and their nearest defender at the point of contact, the Chiefs will be able to generate explosive plays through the air at a higher rate which increases Mahomes chances of clearing the over on his longest completion prop.
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With Isiah Pacheco out with an injury, Kareem Hunt has been able to capitalize on his heavier workload as he comfortably leads the team in Red Zone Carries while converting 25% of his rush attempts into touchdowns. An impressive feat when factoring in the low quality running lanes his offensive line provides as the Chiefs are currently in the bottom half of the board in Run Block Line Yards.
Heading into Thanksgiving, Hunt is in a favorable position to find the back of the end zone as he faces off against a front seven who ranks 31st in Def EPA. With the Chiefs expected to get into scoring position at a higher rate, Hunt will see an uptick in his total number of Red Zone carries. For some more exposure, escalator bet Hunt’s anytime touchdown scorer prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals.
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Since the start of the regular season, Javonte Williams has been one of the more productive running backs in the league as he ranks sixth overall in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. His ability to brush off contact in the trenches has helped him generate explosive runs as Williams is also averaging 4.9 Yards per Carry.
Unfortunately for Williams, negative regression looms large over the Cowboys running back as he faces off against a Chiefs defensive line who excels at plugging the gaps in the trenches as their top-15 mark in Run Defense PFF Grade indicates. With less space to work with, expect Williams to be consistently slowed down at the line of scrimmage.
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