Best Commanders vs. Cowboys Prop Bets: Commanders Down To Their Third-String Quarterback

• Commanders quarterback Marcus Mariota suffered a hand and quad injury and hasn’t been spotted at practice yet this week

• If Mariota is unable to go, the Commanders will likely turn to veteran journeyman Josh Johnson

• The Commanders have allowed running backs to score in eight of their last nine games

To kick off the Christmas Day slate, the Washington Commanders are hosting the Dallas Cowboys.

Neither team will make the playoffs, so their Super Bowl odds are irrelevant. However, both teams should keep in mind our current NFL defense rankings for next season. They both rank inside the bottom six, with the Cowboys at No. 27 and the Commanders at No. 31.

Additionally, the Commanders are without starting quarterback Jayden Daniels for this game, and backup Marcus Mariota is unlikely to play due to injuries to his hand and quad.

If he’s unable to play, Josh Johnson, who’s been in and around the NFL since 2009 with more than a half-dozen teams, could receive the 10th start of his career. He’s 1-8 thus far as a starting quarterback.

Best Commanders vs. Cowboys Prop Bets

With that being said, below, I’ve assembled three of the best prop bets for this matchup, all from Fanatics Sportsbook. Sign up for a Fanatics account today and receive up to $2,000 in FanCash. Find more details in our Fanatics Sportsbook review.

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Javonte Williams Anytime TD (-165) at Fanatics Sportsbook

The Cowboys are favored by a touchdown, which bodes well for the running game's success, as when a team is leading, it tends to run the ball more. 

Williams has gotten close to 75% of the Cowboys’ running back carries and has run 239 times for 1,147 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s also caught 35 of 49 passes for 137 yards and two more scores.

The Commanders have allowed running backs to score in their last six games and in eight of their previous nine. Opposing running backs are averaging 24.27 carries for 113.47 rushing yards (4.68 yards per carry), and 0.93 rushing touchdowns per game against the Commanders.

Williams has scored three times in his last four games and will continue to get plenty of touches in this game.

Anytime a player is handling 20 touches or more per game, this bodes well for their chances to score.

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Terry McLaurin Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Fanatics Sportsbook

While the Cowboys’ pass defense has been dreadful this season, it’s hard to get excited about any Commanders pass catcher with Johnson potentially under center. 

Since 2020, Johnson, who’s now 39 years old, has 109 dropbacks and has completed 65 of 99 passes for 708 yards, 7.2 yards per attempt, five touchdowns, and three interceptions.

While that isn’t bad by any means, he’ll be facing a Cowboys defense that primarily plays Cover-2 and Cover-3.

Against those coverages since 2020, he’s completed 22 of 33 passes for 225 yards, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt.

McLaurin may be one of his top targets, but going off his limited snaps in Week 16, where he completed five of nine passes, he targets running back Jeremy McNichols and wide receiver Treylon Burks twice.

Another consideration is that McLaurin may simply play less as the season winds down and with nothing on the line.

Take the under.

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Chris Rodriguez Jr. Anytime TD (+125) at Fanatics Sportsbook

With Johnson or potentially Jeff Driskel under center, I expect Rodriguez Jr. to get ample touches.

Over the last two games in which Rodriguez and Jacory Croskey-Merritt have both been on the field (Weeks 14 and 16), Rodriguez has received 61% of the carries, and neither has been involved in the passing game.

The Cowboys' run defense played better shortly after acquiring Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline, but over the last three weeks, they’ve allowed six rushing touchdowns, including at least one in every game.

If the Commanders are going to score, it’ll be by Rodriguez Jr.

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