Best Jaguars vs. Bills Prop Bets: The Best Run Defense vs. The Best Run Offense

• The Buffalo Bills have the league’s best run defense, averaging 159.6 yards per game. 

• The Jacksonville Jaguars allow a league-low 85.6 rushing yards per game. 

• The Jaguars have not allowed more than 74 rushing yards to a single running back in any game this season. 

Here we go: It’s time for the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs.

In one of the six matchups, the Buffalo Bills, the No. 6 seed in the AFC, head out on the road to take on the No. 3-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jaguars head into this game as winners of eight straight and rank inside the top nine of our NFL Defense Rankings, as well as in our NFL Offense Rankings.

Heading into this game, the Bills’ Super Bowl odds are +1000, whereas the Jaguars are +1400.

With that said, below, I’ll provide three prop bets for this matchup.

Best Jaguars vs. Bills Prop Bets

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James Cook Under 75.5 Rushing Yards (-105) at Fanatics Sportsbook

Cook has been an excellent running back this season, rushing 309 times for a league-leading 1,621 yards and 12 touchdowns. The Bills are first in rushing yards (159.6) and rushing attempts (32.2). Not only that, but the Bills call a run play 50.55% of the time, which is second in the NFL. 

While Cook has all of this going for him, he’s taking on the league’s best run defense in the Jaguars. They allow just 85.6 rushing yards per game, which is the fewest per game in all of the NFL. Additionally, their opponent's rushing first-down percentage is just 26.4%, the lowest in the league. 

Looking at the game logs, the most rushing yards they’ve allowed this season to a running back was 74 yards in Week 14 to the Indianapolis Colts’ Jonathan Taylor. He had 74 yards on 21 carries, averaging just over 3.5 yards per carry. 

Opposing running backs average just 3.87 per carry against them, which is the fourth-lowest rate in the league. 

This is going to be a battle, but I think the Jaguars come out as the “winner” in their run defense versus the Bills’ rushing attack.

Take the under. 

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Josh Allen 2+ Passing TDs (+110) at Fanatics Sportsbook

Getting the plus odds, this is a prop bet I’m willing to take a chance on. 

Given how stout the Jaguars’ run defense is, the Bills and Allen may need to find ways to score through the air. Not only that, but the Bills have so many players on the injury report that I feel like the Jaguars may be able to score often, putting the Bills behind and needing to throw. 

The Jaguars primarily play Cover-3 and Cover-6, and Allen had only seven passing touchdowns against those schemes all season, yet he is completing 72.4% of his passes while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt. 

Allen has thrown two touchdowns or more in nine of 16 games (not counting Week 18, as he only took the opening snap before exiting). 

He may need to keep up with the Jaguars through the air as they thwart their ground game. I’ll take a chance at +110. 

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Khalil Shakir Anytime TD (+255) at Fanatics Sportsbook

Speaking of Allen passing through the air, I’m willing to also roll the dice on his top receiver finding this end zone. 

Shakir leads the Bills this season with a 19.8% target share, catching 72 of 95 targets for 719 yards and four touchdowns. 

Against Cover-3 and Cover-6, he’s also the leader on the team at 21.8% and is tied for the team league in touchdown catches with two. 

Allen definitely spreads the ball around quite a bit, and no one on the Bills has many touchdown receptions, but if Allen is forced to throw, Shakir should see plenty of looks, and that could result in a score. 

At +255, this is a great value.

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