New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is second in the NFL in MVP odds.
The Los Angeles Chargers have allowed 289 pressures and 60 sacks this season.
Maye has attempted 62 passes of 20-plus yards downfield this season.
After winning 14 games, the New England Patriots locked up the No. 2 seed in the AFC, and first up, they’re hosting the No. 7-seeded Los Angeles Chargers.
As the playoffs go on, the race for the NFL MVP is on, and Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is second in NFL MVP odds at +135. Ahead of him is Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford at -165.
Now, as for Super Bowl odds, the Chargers have the third-worst odds at +3000, while the Patriots are tied for fifth at +1000.
Below, I've constructed a three-same Same Game Parlay for this matchup with +355 odds at Fanatics Sportsbook.
Odds below for three props are courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook. Sign up for a Fanatics account today and receive up to $2,000 in FanCash. Find more details in our Fanatics Sportsbook review.
| Best Patriots vs Chargers SGP Picks | Odds | Claim up to $2,000 in FanCash |
|---|---|---|
| Leg 1: Patriots -3.5 | +110 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 2: Oronde Gadsden II 3+ Receptions | -140 | CLAIM HERE |
| Leg 3: Drake Maye Under 0.5 INTs | -115 | CLAIM HERE |
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This may seem like a small point spread for a No. 2 and No. 7-seeded matchup, but the Chargers have one of the best defenses in the NFL.
The matchup I’m most excited for is this Chargers secondary against Maye.
Maye is one of the best deep ball throwers in the league. On passes 20-plus yards downfield, he’s completed 54.8% of his passes (third in the NFL), for 1,050 yards (third).
Meanwhile, on passes 20-plus yards downfield, the Chargers are allowing a completion percentage of just 27.8% (second), including four touchdowns and six interceptions.
While that’s going to be a battle to watch, I think the Chargers’ kryptonite is their offensive line. They’ve allowed 289 pressures (third) and 60 sacks (tied for second). To make matters worse, they have several offensive linemen on their injury report, including Jamaree Salyer, Austin Deculcus, and Bradley Bozeman.
The Patriots are middle of the pack in pressures with 226, but in addition to that, I expect defensive tackle Milton Williams to cause problems for the Chargers’ run game.
I expect a lower-scoring game, but the Patriots win and cover the spread.
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Throughout the regular season, the Patriots allowed 5.7 receptions per game to opposing tight ends, which ranked 11th in the NFL. They’ve allowed three receptions or more to the position in all but one game this season, which came in Week 2 against the Miami Dolphins.
As for Gadsden II, he’s fourth on the Chargers in target share at 12.7%, catching 49 of 69 passes for 664 yards and three touchdowns.
He’s caught three passes or more in eight of 15 games, including in two of his last four.
The Patriots have been a bit vulnerable against tight ends, so I think he snags at least three passes in this game.
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I mentioned earlier that Maye is one of the best deep-ball throwers in the NFL. Well, typically, part of being a quarterback that tends to throw deep usually comes with either throwing interceptions or throwing passes that should’ve been intercepted.
That said, that’s not the case with Maye.
On passes 20-plus yards downfield, Maye has just one interception, and only one turnover-worthy play.
He’s attempted 62 passes that went for 20-plus yards downfield. All playerswhot have the same amount or more passes downfield of this length have three or more.
He’ll take care of the football, even when throwing downfield.
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