Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart is returning after missing the last two games with a concussion
The Patriots will be without left tackle Will Campbell and likely center Jared Wilson
The Patriots have won nine straight games
To close out Week 13 of the 2025-26 NFL season, we have the New England Patriots hosting the New York Giants.
This game also marks the return of Giants rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, who missed the last two games with a concussion. This is also the first full game the Patriots will play without their left tackle, Will Campbell, and center, Jared Wilson.
Despite injuries to the offensive line, the Patriots, who sit at 10-2 this season and are winning nine straight games, have Super Bowl odds of +1400, which are well inside the top 10 in the NFL.
Not only are they inside the top 10 in odds, but they’re also inside the top seven in our NFL defense rankings. As for the Giants, they’re at No. 26.
Below, I've constructed a three-same Same Game Parlay for this matchup with +415 odds at Fanatics Sportsbook.
Odds below for two props are courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook. Sign up for a Fanatics Sportsbook promo today and receive up to $2,000 in FanCash.
| Best Patriots vs Giants SGP Picks | Odds | Get up to $2,000 in FanCash |
|---|---|---|
| Giants +7 | -110 | CLAIM HERE |
| Jaxson Dart Under 1.5 Passing TDs | -200 | CLAIM HERE |
| Mack Hollins Under 35.5 Receiving Yards | -120 | CLAIM HERE |
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In Dart’s first game back since suffering a concussion a few weeks ago, I’m taking the Giants +7 on the road.
The Patriots truly mix up their coverages well, but if you look at the top four they play (Cover-1, Cover-2, Cover-3, and Cover-4), Dart has played pretty well against those, completing 64.6% of his passes for 1,208 yards, 7.5 yards per attempt, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Additionally, while the Patriots don’t allow many rushing yards to quarterbacks, they did allow a rushing touchdown a couple of weeks ago to New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields. If you look at the other quarterbacks they’ve faced, not many “scream” running quarterbacks.
One that does, however, is Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. In Week 5, he ran nine times for 53 yards.
Something else to keep in mind is the Patriots’ offensive line against this Giants pass rush.
The Patriots are set to be without left tackle Will Campbell and center Jared Wilson. Last week, when they weren’t on the field, the Patriots allowed 13 pressures.
Now, with those injuries, they’ll have to battle a Giants pass rush that’s 10th in the NFL in pressures with 156.
Look for the Patriots to win, but the Giants to cover. This could be a similar finish for the Patriots to last week's 26-20 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
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While I’m picking the Giants to cover, I’m also taking Dart to have one passing touchdown or less.
Across seven starts, Dart has had one touchdown pass or fewer in four. Now, if you look at his game logs against the coverages the Patriots play, he’s had multiple touchdown passes against those in just two games, which included a shootout with the Denver Broncos and a trailing effort against the San Francisco 49ers.
As for their season-long averages, the Patriots allow 1.67 passing touchdowns per game. They’ve allowed one or fewer in five games this season, including in each of their last two.
The Giants don’t really have that alpha No. 1 receiver, and Dart is going to use his legs.
Look for Dart to have only one passing touchdown.
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Examining his game logs, Hollins has had 35 receiving yards or fewer in eight games this season. However, to be fair to him, he’s been much more involved in the offense recently, finishing above this line in two of his last three games.
However, here, he’s taking on a Giants defense that primarily plays Cover-1 and Cover-3, and this season, he’s only finished with 35 yards or more in two games.
His season-long totals against those are 14 catches on 23 targets across 152 routes for 189 yards (13.5 yards per catch) and a 60.9% reception rate.
At 13.5 yards per catch, he would need about three receptions to hit the over in this game, but he’s had fewer than three catches in all but four games this season.
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