NFL Super Bowl LX Pick Against the Spread: Maye & Darnold Starring in Seahawks vs. Patriots Classic?

• The Seahawks (14-5) and Patriots (13-6-1) have the best records against the spread

• Underdogs covered in 17 of the last 24 Super Bowls

• Both teams ranked first and second in average scoring margin and points allowed per game

Months of blood, sweat, and tears in the NFL are coming down to one final matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX.

The Pats completed a remarkable turnaround, going from a 4-13 disaster to the champs of the AFC. The Seahawks also flew under the radar, but stamped their authority with a dominant run through the playoff bracket.

Underdogs were in vogue recently, but will that trend continue this year? Here is my official Seahawks vs. Patriots Super Bowl LX best bet against the spread.

• My 2026 NFL Playoff betting stats: 6-6 (50%)

Super Bowl LX Pick ATS

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Seahawks vs. Patriots - Feb. 8, 6:30 p.m. ET 

• Spread: Seahawks -4.5 (-112) vs. Patriots +4.5 (-108)

• Moneyline: Seahawks -235, Patriots +194

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-108/-112)

Where do we even begin when discussing a Super Bowl matchup that nobody saw coming? These teams had the highest average scoring margins in football but never faced each other, leaving a veil of mystery over their upcoming bout.

The Seahawks dominated on defense, ranking second in EPA per play and third in success rate across the regular season and playoffs. They also surrendered the fewest points per game thanks to Mike MacDonald’s suffocating system of pattern-matching and the defensive line’s ability to win with four rushers.

Offensively, Seattle bought into a budding trend of loading up the line with 12, 13, and jumbo personnel, not to consistently run the football, but to throw the ball over the top of opposing defenses that matched their personnel. They enter the Super Bowl ranked sixth in offensive success rate and 10th in EPA per play. 

Quarterback Sam Darnold played about as well as a quarterback could in the NFC Championship Game, torching the Los Angeles Rams for 346 yards and three touchdowns. His 14 interceptions were the third-most in the regular season, but he’s yet to commit a turnover in the postseason.

On the other side, the Patriots’ regular-season run was fueled primarily by second-year QB Drake Maye. The second-team All-Pro racked up 4,394 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and had another 450 yards and four TDs on the ground. They ranked fourth in EPA per play and 10th in success rate, but they also fell on hard times at an inopportune juncture.

Maye averaged 224.7 total yards and had five total touchdowns to five turnovers in the playoffs. He was also sacked five times in all three games, including the AFC Championship Game, in which he completed 47.6 percent of his passes for 86 yards and a rushing touchdown. The Patriots’ 54 points scored in the playoffs are the fewest in a three-game span by a team that advanced to the Super Bowl in NFL history.

Fittingly, the Patriots’ defense went to another galaxy during the playoffs. They only allowed 26 points in three games, the fewest in a three-game run to the Super Bowl since the historic 2000 Baltimore Ravens. That included forcing eight turnovers and 12 sacks and holding every running back they faced to 37 or fewer rushing yards.

The Patriots were extremely fortunate with how their season broke, whether that be securing the AFC East title while only beating one team with a record above .500, getting Justin Herbert with fourth-string linemen in front of him, or facing a backup quarterback in the AFC Championship Game. However, they never looked like they weren’t capable of beating every team in front of them, and they’ve been the most consistent and focused team in football.

Alright, let’s get to my Super Bowl bet and pick against the spread. 

Underdogs are 17-7 against the spread in the Super Bowl going back to 2000. They also covered in five straight and won four of the last five outright, with last year’s Big Game being a shining representation of that. 

I believe the Seahawks have the margins on offense, defense, and in the coaching battle. That said, Maye didn’t have a multi-interception game all year, whereas Darnold is more likely to make mistakes in bunches.

I believe the Seahawks are rightfully favored, but these teams match up well with one another. The Patriots’ slumping offensive line scares me, but Maye’s ability to make plays with his legs could pay dividends if he’s asked to engineer a late-game scoring drive. I see this finishing in the region of 24-20 Seahawks, giving the Patriots a narrow cover.

• Seahawks vs. Patriots Super Bowl pick: Patriots +4.5 (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook

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