NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread: Eagles-Packers NFC Showdown and the Week of the Underdogs?

• The Rams and Seahawks lead the league at 6-2 against the spread

• The Saints are a league-worst 2-7 ATS

• Away favorites have found the most success, covering in 56.1 percent of games

As the NFL world crosses into Week 10 of the 2025 season, I’ve taken the liberty of making my best bets against the spread from every game (again).

This has been a successful season personally, as I’ve only had one losing week the entire year. My biggest win was the Seattle Seahawks at -3 against the Washington Commanders, but I completely whiffed on the Detroit Lions at -8.5 against the Minnesota Vikings.

This week, the stakes intensify, the lights get brighter, and the race for the postseason heats up. Which teams will deliver, and which ones will fall short?

Here are my best bets against the spread for every NFL Week 10 matchup.

• My 2025 NFL betting stats: 74-58-2 (56.1% ATS)

NFL Week 10 Picks ATS

Odds from bet365 sportsbook. Sign up for a bet365 account with our promo code WSN365 and claim the welcome offer: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose. Get more info on this offer in our bet365 sportsbook review.

Also, check out our selection of the best NFL Sportsbooks and claim the latest NFL betting promos today.

If you're in a state where bet365 Sportsbook is not yet legal, we recommend playing at Underdog. Read our Underdog Fantasy Review, learn how to claim your promo code WSNPLAY, and sign up below.

Raiders vs. Broncos - Nov. 6, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Raiders +9 (-115), Broncos -9 (-105)

• Moneyline: Raiders +375, Broncos -500

• Total: Over/under 42 (-110/-110)

The Raiders almost had the win in overtime against the Jaguars, but they were stopped on a two-point conversion that would’ve won the game. Brock Bowers announced his return by catching 12 passes for 127 yards and three touchdowns, but Ashton Jeanty was corralled once again. Veas’ defense did a nice job overall and deserved to get more out of the game.

The Broncos have done a tremendous job of insulating Bo Nix with an elite offensive line and, arguably, the best defense in the league. Nix hasn’t been great for most of the year, but the team is still 7-2, riding a six-game winning streak. They’re also 5-0 on their home field, and Nix has been better late than early in games (the preferred option).

Divisional matchups are hairy, and adding in limited rest to the equation could make this matchup much closer than many expect. Geno Smith can’t stop throwing interceptions, but he has Bowers back to offer him some support at the very least. It’s painful doing this, but I’ll ride with the visiting Raiders.

Raiders vs. Broncos pick: Raiders +9 (-115) at bet365

Falcons vs. Colts - Nov. 9, 9:30 A.M. ET 

• Spread: Falcons +6 (-110), Colts -6 (-110)

• Moneyline: Falcons +230, Colts -280

• Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

Drake London showed the world just how potent he can be when he’s at his best, as he toasted the Patriots for nine receptions, 118 yards, and three touchdowns. Atlanta’s D came to play in the second half but allowed the team to fall into a comfortable hole, representing the inconsistency they’ve shown all year. This team has talent, but they’re also capable of laying an egg when it’s not expected.

Speaking of laying an egg, Daniel Jones turned the ball over five times (yes, five) in last week’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The team still has the most efficient offense in the NFL, but the Steelers showed what happens when a team can successfully take away Jonathan Taylor and the dominant running game. Defensively, Indy is alright, but they don’t make big plays.

I always refer to international games as the “Great Equalizer,” and that feels appropriate here. I trust the Colts much more than the Falcons, but the Colts just played what was easily their worst game of the season. The Falcons wouldn’t have covered if they didn’t recover a fortuitous fumble, but I still think they get the job done overseas.

Falcons vs. Colts pick: Falcons +5.5 (-110) at bet365

Ravens vs. Vikings - Nov. 9, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Ravens -4 (-110), Vikings +4 (-110)

• Moneyline: Ravens -210, Vikings +175

• Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)

Lamar Jackson returned to the lineup with four touchdowns, while the defense produced its best performance of the year in a blowout win against the Dolphins. There’s still a long way to go with this team, but they reminded us that, at the very least, they can blow out bad teams. The question is whether they can continue to ascend after 10 days of rest.

J.J. McCarthy made a couple of plays here and there, but the big news was that the Vikings’ defense dominated the Lions during their 27-24 win on Sunday. This team is incredibly well-coached and can stay competitive with essentially any team in the league so long as they are healthy and don’t horribly lose the turnover battle. They’re only 2-3 at home, and they will likely need McCarthy to show more than he did in his three career starts.

Jackson owns the NFC simply because there’s nobody like him in the conference (or the NFL). The Vikings’ defense is game-breaking, but they don’t have enough offensive explosiveness with McCarthy to go back at the Ravens. Look for the additional rest to help the visitors be more prepared than their opponent.

Ravens vs. Vikings pick: Ravens -4 (-110) at bet365

Bills vs. Dolphins - Nov. 9, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bills -9.5 (-110), Dolphins +9.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bills -500, Dolphins +375

• Total: Over/under 50 (-110/-110)

Okay, another touchdown victory over the Chiefs is one way to convince me the Bills aren’t just beating up on trash cans. They dominated that game with their defense, even though their ability to stop the run remains in question. Josh Allen and James Cook consistently help move the chains, and this team is about as established in its system as any other franchise in the NFL.

It seemed as if the Dolphins intentionally took themselves out of last Thursday’s loss to the Ravens with fumbles and poor decision-making in key situations. As I seem to say every week, they have talent and flashes of brilliance, but they make far too many mistakes and are just soft. Injuries don’t help make their situation any better, and it’s possible their team looks much different after the trade deadline.

The Dolphins haven’t provided much of a reason to back them, but they are at home against a divisional rival with additional rest. The Bills, on the other hand, are coming off of a season-defining victory and could be at risk of overlooking their upcoming opponent. I will take the Dolphins.

Bills vs. Dolphins pick: Dolphins +9.5 (-110) at bet365

Browns vs. Jets - Nov. 9, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Browns +2 (-110), Jets -2 (-110)

• Moneyline: Browns +110, Jets -130

• Total: Over/under 37 (-110/-110)

It feels like we’re still reading off of the same script we have for years. The Browns run the football, play tremendous defense, and get blown out because they don't have a quarterback to elevate them. They are coming off of a bye week, which should help them as they prepare to go on the road.

The Jets just traded Sauce Gardner to the Colts and are clearly done with their season. Justin Fields is in contention for the worst quarterback in the NFL, and their defense should get noticeably worse without their lockdown corner. Like the Browns, they are also coming off of a bye, although Aaron Glenn is yet to prove that information is worth much. 

Dillon Gabriel is not the long-term answer, but he’s less likely to turn the ball over than Fields. The Browns also have a much better defense, and the Jets’ morale should be down following the Gardner trade. I’m watching the underdog Browns to win outright on the road.

Browns vs. Jets pick: Browns +2 (-110) at bet365

Jaguars vs. Texans - Nov. 9, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jaguars +1 (-105), Texans -1 (-115)

• Moneyline: Jaguars +100, Texans -120

• Total: Over/under 38 (-110)

After beginning the year playing elite defense, the Jaguars are down to 30th in EPA allowed per play over the last month of football. That, parlayed with Travis Hunter being on IR and Brian Thomas Jr. dealing with a high ankle sprain, has left them in a precarious position following a great start to the year. Liam Coen also hasn’t positively impacted Trevor Lawrence, and the team was one two-point conversion away from dropping three straight contests.

The line suggests that C.J. Stroud will be back on the field for the Texans, although that’s unclear following the concussion he suffered last weekend. The Texans have one of the most stifling defenses in the NFL, but offensive consistency has been hard to come by for them. They also can’t run the ball and essentially need Stroud on the field.

This pick is totally contingent upon Stroud being able to suit up; Jakobi Meyers was a nice trade addition for the Jags, but not enough to make me believe this offense can consistently overpower the league’s stingiest defense, which allows 15.1 points per game. I love the Texans, again, as long as their QB is on the field.

Jaguars vs. Texans pick: Texans -1 (-115) at bet365

Patriots vs. Buccaneers - Nov. 9, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Patriots +2.5 (-110), Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Patriots +120, Buccaneers -140

• Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

The Pats are hot, and everyone knows it. Their six-game winning streak has helped fuel Drake Maye’s MVP candidacy, although they were one missed extra point away from potentially spitting the bit against the Atlanta Falcons last weekend. This is a real test for them as they head south on I-95 to face a well-rested Buccaneers team.

The home favorites are coming off of a bye and are suddenly facing a bit of pressure in the NFC South now that the Panthers are a respectable outfit. The return of Bucky Irving should help them stay ahead of the chains, while they’re still loaded at the receiver position. Their porous defense will have its hands full with Maye’s deep shots, but Todd Bowles is still an excellent defensive mind. 

This is one of the most important matchups of the season for both teams, and for the league as a whole, up to this point. Both teams believe they can contend for the conference title, but both also need to take more steps toward proving that to legitimize the hype. I believe the Bucs are the more prolific outfit, and being at home after a bye week is too much to ignore.

Patriots vs. Buccaneers pick: Buccaneers -2.5 (-110) at bet365

Saints vs. Panthers - Nov. 9, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Saints +5.5 (-110), Panthers -5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Saints +205, Panthers -250

• Total: Over/under 40 (-110/-110)

No matter what ESPN’s QBR says, don’t be fooled into believing Tyler Shough played a good game last week, or that he can lead the Saints to multiple wins. The 26-year-old rookie (you read that correctly) had averaged 5.4 yards per attempt and had one touchdown and two interceptions over the last two games, while his defense just surrendered 34 points. This team is flat-out terrible and traded Rashid Shaheed at the deadline.

The Panthers dominate the success rate stat, which measures their ability to stay ahead of the chains, on both sides. Bryce Young has to nickel and dime his way down the field, but he’s stopped making careless mistakes, and has shown he can win games with Rico Dowdle running the ball the way he has. The defense also just shut down the Packers and is among the 10 best units in the sport.

I entered the year believing the Saints were the worst team in professional football, and they’re still neck and neck with the Titans. The Panthers are above .500 thanks to their dominant defense, and I expect them to wreak havoc against the unimpressive Shough. Who would’ve thought the day would come that the Panthers would be 5.5-point favorites?

Saints vs. Panthers pick: Panthers -5.5 (-110) at bet365

Giants vs. Bears - Nov. 9, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Giants +3.5 (-110), Bears -3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Giants +160, Bears -190

• Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)

Jaxson Dart is battling and has shown more than enough talent to believe in his long-term potential—however, he’s playing against a stacked deck. Injuries and a bad roster have ruined the Giants’ chances of contending for anything, especially coming off a three-game losing streak. They can’t stop the run to help get off the field, and most of their offense comes from Dart’s improvisation.

The Bears nearly had an all-time collapse, but Caleb Williams and Colston Loveland rescued them in a 47-42 thriller against the Bengals. They won five of their last six games and look like a very well-coached outfit, thanks to Ben Johnson. Williams is still inconsistent and inaccurate, but he can make plays.

I like Dart’s ability to make plays, and I don’t trust Williams’ accuracy. The Bears are obviously the better team here, but I have a hunch that the Chicago defense is going to give the Giants’ rookie QB enough opportunities to make plays to keep them within the three-and-a-half points. The G-Men also just got a great look at a similar sort of offense in their loss against the 49ers.

Giants vs. Bears pick: Giants +3.5 (-110) at bet365

Cardinals vs. Seahawks - Nov. 9, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cardinals +6.5 (-110), Seahawks -6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cardinals +245, Seahawks -305

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

Jonathan Gannon bit the bullet and rightfully announced that Jacoby Brissett would take over as the starter for Kyler Murray. The Cards have looked better with their backup under center and just upset the Cowboys in primetime, although it was their defensive line that took over that matchup. They now head up to face a division rival, whom they lost to at home earlier this year, 23-20.

The Seahawks have taken the league by storm and just annihilated the Commanders, 38-14, behind a stellar performance from Sam Darnold. The Seahawks have a unique way of baiting teams into matching their heavy personnel, which they use to set up their play-action passing game. Defensively, their zone and match coverage is outstanding, not to mention they stuff the run better than every team in football.

The Seahawks are a very good team, but Arizona’s ability to win the point of attack with Walter Nolen and Josh Sweat could be the reason they cover in this game. At the same time, there’s an element of risk depending on Brissett, a career backup, to continue performing at a high level. I will take the Cardinals, although I’d be very surprised if they won.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks pick: Cardinals +6.5 (-110) at bet365

Lions vs. Commanders - Nov. 9, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Lions -9 (-110), Commanders +9 (-110)

• Moneyline: Lions -450, Commanders +350

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

The Lions’ offensive line was embarrassed in last week’s loss against the Vikings, during which they had to abandon the run and couldn’t get Jared Goff comfortable. They rank sixth in EPA allowed per play on defense and are still explosive on offense, but above all else, there’s a tangible element of revenge here. The team is not only coming off of a loss, but they get to face a Commanders squad that shocked them at home in the playoffs last year.

The Commanders’ defense is flat-out pathetic, and their offense has sputtered all year. Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, and numerous others are out, and the team is just a shell of what it once was. This feels like the point at which they pivot and put all of their young guys on the field to see what they have instead of trying to be as competitive as possible in the short-term.

Dan Campbell never hesitates to run up the score on teams he faces, and I have no doubt he’ll want to do that against the team that eliminated him from the postseason a year ago and coming off of a loss. The Commanders lost three straight games by at least 21 points and are there for the taking.

Lions vs. Commanders pick: Lions -9 (-110) at bet365

Rams vs. 49ers - Nov. 9, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Rams -3.5 (-110), 49ers +3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Rams -200, 49ers +165

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

The Rams could easily be the best team in football, given they rank first in defensive and sixth in offensive EPA per play. Puka Nacua is back with Matt Stafford, and they might have the smartest head coach in the sport. Kyle Shanahan has repeatedly gotten the better of Sean McVay, but the Rams haven’t allowed more than 10 points in a month, and Stafford has 21 touchdowns to just two interceptions.

The Niners appear to be getting better performances out of Mac Jones than they did with Brock Purdy, and they survived a wave of injuries to their defense. Christian McCaffrey is nowhere near as explosive as he once was, but he helps move the ball down the field. This is a game the 49ers will want to play within the margin, knowing they can fall back on great coaching in a matchup they dominated recently.

While the Shanahan advantage is at play, I believe the Rams are better than the 49ers in nearly every way. At the same time, they haven't been tested for a while, and their last loss was to this same team. I could see them winning but failing to cover.

Rams vs. 49ers pick: 49ers +3.5 (-110) at bet365

Steelers vs. Chargers - Nov. 9, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Steelers +3 (-110), Chargers -3 (-110)

• Moneyline: Steelers +125, Chargers -150

• Total: Over/under 45 (-110/-110)

Last week’s win over the Colts, during which the defense shut out Jonathan Taylor and forced five turnovers off of Daniel Jones, was hard not to be excited by for Steelers fans. Their team has been porous on defense, and their offensive attack has been somewhat limited despite being effective. However, that win proved they can take down top powers in the conference.

Justin Herbert is down his top two tackles, and his defense has taken several steps back. I worry about their ability to run the football in this matchup and the potential that they will once again heap the entire offensive burden onto Herbert’s shoulders. While he’s a great player, the lack of balance has been what’s undone this team in recent years.

Mike Tomlin is one of the best underdog coaches in league history, and his team is coming off of its best win of the season. Keep an eye out for the Steelers to generate pressure in creative ways against backup offensive linemen and to help power the visitors to an outright victory.

Steelers vs. Chargers pick: Steelers +3 (-110) at bet365

Eagles vs. Packers - Nov. 10, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Eagles +2.5 (-110), Packers -2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Eagles +115, Packers -135

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

The game of the week could also be an NFC Championship Game preview, depending on how the chips fall. The Birds are coming off of a bye week and hope to open up their running game, which has been ineffective and limited their entire offensive attack. They have also had lapses on defense, but they’re still playing like a top-10 unit.

It’s hard to know what’s going on in Green Bay. Jordan Love’s metrics are solid, but he still makes baffling mistakes quite frequently, while the defense makes splash plays but also doesn’t get stops when they’re needed. After looking like a dominant squad, this team is doing some real soul-searching after falling to the Panthers at home last Sunday.

I believe the Eagles have a better roster than the Packers, I trust their system more (despite the offensive headaches), and they should be more rested and more prepared thanks to their bye week. The Packers will be desperate, following their recent loss, but that isn’t necessarily a positive with this quarterback. I see the Eagles winning by at least a touchdown.

Eagles vs. Packers pick: Eagles +2.5 (-110) at bet365

Wager $5 at bet365 and Claim $200 in Bonus Bets