NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread: Lions to Shock Eagles and More Bold Bets

• The Seahawks and Rams are a league-best 7-2 against the spread as they prepare to face one another

• The Saints and Commanders are a league-worst 3-7 ATS

• Away favorites have continued to print money, covering in 57.1 percent of games

With only two losing weeks in the first two and a half months of the season, it’s time to reveal my best bets against the spread for Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season.

I was all over underdogs like the Las Vegas Raiders and the Miami Dolphins last week. At the same time, the dominance of the Rams and the Chargers was not on my bingo card.

Week 11 features a slew of divisional matchups, a trailblazing international game, showdowns between Super Bowl hopefuls, and many games full of drama. Betting aside, it’s a great time to be a fan of the sport.

With the stage set, let’s dive into my best bets against the spread for every game in the NFL in Week 11. 

• My 2025 NFL betting stats: 80-65-3 (55.2% ATS)

NFL Week 11 Picks ATS

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Jets vs. Patriots - Nov. 13, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jets +11.5 (-110), Patriots -11.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Jets +550, Patriots -800

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

Don’t look now, but the Jets are hot! As hot as a 2-7 team whose quarterback threw for 54 total yards last week can be, at the very least. The losses of Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams inarguably lowered their overall floor as a team, and their win last week wouldn’t have happened had they not scored two special teams touchdowns.

The Patriots proved themselves yet again by beating the Buccaneers, who were coming off of a bye, on the road. They have won seven games in a row and may have finally unlocked second-round rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson, who carried the ball 14 times for 147 yards and two touchdowns. This team is explosive, well-coached, disciplined, and resilient, and playing with as much confidence as any team in football.

Large underdogs in divisional matchups on short weeks are usually nightmares for favored teams. The Browns have been  blown out before, but they’ve also played their opponents close for a month straight. It’s an uncomfortable pick, but riding with the Jets could prove to be a savvy decision.

Jets vs. Patriots pick: Jets +11.5 (-110) at bet365

Commanders vs. Dolphins - Nov. 16, 9:30 A.M. ET 

• Spread: Commanders +2.5 (-105), Dolphins -2.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Commanders +125, Dolphins -150

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

Dan Quinn demoted defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. after the Commanders tied an NFL record by losing four straight games by at least 21 points. Quinn will try to fix a defense that has allowed the most net yards per attempt since the 1981 Baltimore Colts, and one that is now without three of its top edge rushers, both of its starting cornerbacks, its starting safety, and starting defensive tackle Daron Payne, who was suspended for punching Amon-Ra St. Brown.

The Dolphins got their offense firing in two of the last three weeks, which included blowout wins over the Falcons and the Bills. In between those, however, they were throttled at home by the Ravens in primetime. There’s no sense of consistency with this squad, although they have shown the ability to create highlight plays, while also having a propensity to turn the ball over.

I always refer to international games as “the great equalizer.” The teams will embark on the NFL’s first venture to Spain, where the Commanders will roll out a team mostly consisting of backups and practice squad players. I also don’t love this pick, but I can see a world in which the DQ effect takes hold, and Marcus Mariota’s steady play guides the Commanders to a victory overseas.

Commanders vs. Dolphins pick: Commanders +2.5 (-110) at bet365

Panthers vs. Falcons - Nov. 16, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Panthers +3.5 (-110), Falcons -3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Panthers +165, Falcons -200

• Total: Over/under 42.5 (-110/-110)

In classic Panthers fashion, they followed up a road win over the Packers and four wins in their last five games by scoring just seven points in a home dud against the Tyler Shough-led Saints. Their defense does a great job of winning on a down-to-down basis, but they are severely handicapped by the quarterback play of Bryce Young. This is a worthy upset team, but one without enough talent at the crucial positions to consistently win games.

The Falcons got all the way to overtime against the Colts in Berlin last Sunday, only to lose to 244 yards and three touchdowns from Jonathan Taylor. They forced a season-high seven sacks and have proved that they can generate pressure, but Michael Penix Jr.’s wild inaccuracy has also reached “startling” levels. The way to win games is for them to control the clock, pound the rock, and win with the talent they have trouble maximizing week-in-and-week-out. 

Neither one of these teams gave their fans any reason to believe they will show up on any given Sunday. This is a crucial matchup for the NFC playoff picture, although it’s very possible that both of these teams will be sitting on their couches watching Wild Card weekend. I’ll have to side with the Panthers on account of them being better-coached and having less variance at QB, which is a wild thing to say when their quarterback is Bryce Young.

Panthers vs. Falcons pick: Panthers +3.5 (-110) at bet365

Bears vs. Vikings - Nov. 16, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bears +3 (-110), Vikings -3 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bears +135, Vikings -200

• Total: Over/under 42.5 (-110/-110)

Credit where credit is due, the Ben Johnson effect is tangible. Caleb Williams is not without his faults, but he’s found success within Johnson’s system, and the defense has shown recent improvement (the Bengals game notwithstanding). They have lots of weapons in the Windy City, and their newfound ability to dominate the ground has helped them embody the spirit of Johnson’s preferred offensive system.

Sooner or later, the Vikings will realize that J.J. McCarthy is a limited player. Fortunately for him, he’s insulated by the best coaching staff in football, and arguably the best supporting cast of any offensive player. The Brian Flores-led defense hasn’t quite been dominant, but it’s leveled out at a top-10 level and can take over a game at any given moment.

I understand the general expectation that the Bears will slip up, and that the Vikings’ home-field advantage matters. I don’t love laying the points with them here, but I also believe that Flores can scheme up a defense to confuse Williams. There’s also a big difference between playing in Soldier Field in the winter and inside a dome, which benefits the home team.

Bears vs. Vikings pick: Vikings -3 (-110) at bet365

Bengals vs. Steelers - Nov. 16, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bengals +5.5 (-110), Steelers -5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bengals +205, Steelers -250

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

Joe Burrow’s return to practice dominated the headlines this week, but the bigger story is that Joe Flacco has been nothing short of sensational during his time in his new threads. The bye week might normally do teams well, but the poor coaching of Zac Taylor won’t make me believe that he, or anyone in the building, figured out how to patch up their grotesque defense. The only question here is if Flacco and company can score enough points to keep pace.

Right after the Steelers forced Daniel Jones into committing five turnovers and stymied Jonathan Taylor, they went on the road to play an uncompetitive 25-10 contest against the Chargers. Aaron Rodgers barely completed 50 percent of his passes and tossed one touchdown to two interceptions, while the team only gained 73 yards on the ground. A change in personnel will give the Steelers a new look on defense as they return to their stadium for a divisional matchup.

It’s hard not to love what Flacco has done during his time with the Bengals. That includes a 342-yard, three-touchdown masterclass against this same Steelers team in a 33-31 victory about a month ago, which caused Mike Tomlin to publicly express his admiration for the Cincy QB. The recent result might’ve favored the Bengals, but I think Tomlin’s changes and recent look at Flacco will help him and his team be prepared for Sunday.

Bengals vs. Steelers pick: Steelers -5.5 (-110) at bet365

Packers vs. Giants - Nov. 16, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Packers -7.5 (-110), Giants +7.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Packers -400, Giants +320

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

What really are the Packers? They have excellent metrics, but they do things like lose to the Panthers as double-digit home favorites and then score seven points in a loss to the Eagles. The amount of talent and ability on this team is undeniable, but there’s something incomplete about their composition.

The Giants are entering their first week without Brian Daboll, who was fired after Jaxson Dart was sent for his fourth concussion evaluation in his first seven games as a pro. Jameis Winston is poised to start this weekend, and the Giants’ defense just collapsed and allowed the Bears to steal a victory last week. They’re 29th in EPA per play allowed and have few offensive weapons due to their piling injuries.

The Packers have disappointed on several major stages, but they’re still much better than the Giants. Dart injected life into the offense, but I don’t expect them to overcome what should be an aggressive Packers team that is scraping to find some momentum amid a heated NFC playoff race in his absence. I’m willing to lay a large number with the visitors.

Packers vs. Giants pick: Packers -7.5 (-110) at bet365

Texans vs. Titans - Nov. 16, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Texans -7 (-105), Titans +7 (-115)

• Moneyline: Texans -370, Titans +290

• Total: Over/under 38.5 (-110-110)

The Texans put up 36 points on the Jags last weekend with Davis Mills at quarterback in a furious comeback win, which is both a compliment to them and a condemnation of the Jaguars. One thing that is for certain about this team is that they are terrific against the pass, both because of their defensive front and their secondary. Their offense has started to find a bit of rhythm, and the utilization of their rookie receivers could help that continue.

Cam Ward has been the worst quarterback in the league, and there’s more to it than him being in an undesirable situation. He’s simply not playing the position well, but it’s not a secret that he’s at a sharp talent disadvantage every time he’s on the field. The Titans are 28th in defensive and 32nd in offensive EPA per play, which is the total opposite of a winning formula.

Despite the Titans’ atrocious campaign, they’re only one game behind the Texans in the standings against the spread. They got to spend last week on a bye as they prepare to host their division rivals at home, and as undermanned as they may be, there’s a possibility that the Texans lose their rhythm when C.J. Stroud returns to the lineup. It’s another underdog for me in this one.

Texans vs. Titans pick: Titans +7 (-115) at bet365

Chargers vs. Jaguars - Nov. 16, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chargers -3 (+100), Jaguars +3 (-120)

• Moneyline: Chargers -155, Jaguars +140

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

In a way, the Chargers are a lot like the Eagles. They don’t seem to play overly well or be connected at the same time, yet they just find ways to win football games. They’re 7-3 despite having one of the worst offensive lines in football and suffering multiple injuries at important positions, which is a testament to Justin Herbert’s play at QB.

The news that Travis Hunter is out for the season is disappointing, but realistically, it won’t make a huge difference to the Jags’ season. Trevor Lawrence looks like a bottom-five quarterback, and the defense that started the year on fire is 29th in EPA allowed per play since Week 5. They lost three of their last four, and their only win was in overtime on a two-point conversion stand against the terrible Raiders.

I can’t put into words how much I love the Jaguars in this game. They’re better on offense and defense, have the superior coach, and have a much better quarterback. They’re also 3-1 on the road and on a three-game winning streak, during which they produced an average margin of victory of 16.3 points.

Chargers vs. Jaguars pick: Chargers -3 (+100) at bet365

Buccaneers vs. Bills - Nov. 16, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Buccaneers +5.5 (-110), Bills -5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Buccaneers +210, Bills -260

• Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

Either the Bucs aren’t as good as we all thought they were, or, more likely, the Patriots are just a very strong football team. The former lost at home after their bye week as 2.5-point favorites, and they now have to head on the road to play in what will be chilly, but not freezing, weather. Tampa leads the NFL in success rate against the run and is explosive through the air, but they need to stop letting up explosive plays on defense.

A 30-13 loss against the Dolphins last week has called into question the Dolphins’ legitimacy as an AFC contender. They’ve lost three of their last five games and allowed the second-most rushing yards per attempt, which could become an issue if they also have to honor Tampa’s downfield explosiveness. The Bills also averaged more than 40 yards fewer than their league-leading 153.2 rushing yards per game during their three losses.

The Bucs’ outstanding run defense makes them an imposing force against the run-heavy Bills. Josh Allen also threw at least one interception in four of his last six games, while Baker Mayfield and Emeka Egbuka are good enough to keep the underdogs in any game against any opponent. This sets up for the Bucs to hang in there with the favorites.

Buccaneers vs. Bills pick: Buccaneers +5.5 (-110) at bet365

Seahawks vs. Rams - Nov. 16, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Seahawks +3 (-110), Rams -3 (-110)

• Moneyline: Seahawks +145, Rams -170

• Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

This sets up to be one of the best games of the year as both teams are playing incredible football at the moment. Sam Darnold averaged the second-highest yards per attempt in a season during the Super Bowl era, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on track to set the NFL single-season receiving record. Seattle’s defense is also fifth in EPA per play and eighth in success rate and has virtually no deficiencies on its roster.

The Rams won their last four games by an average of 20.5 points, slightly outdoing the Seahawks’ four-game winning streak that came by an average margin of 15.5 points. Matthew Stafford threw at least four touchdowns and no interceptions in three straight games, while the LA defense ranks second in EPA per play and 11th in success rate. Puka Nacua’s return has fully unlocked the offense, and their young defensive talent continues to show up.

This is the first meeting of the season between the pair of 7-2 NFC West foes. Both are outstanding squads with real potential to win not just the division, but the conference as a whole. The Rams’ defense is right on par with the Seahawks, however, and Stafford can go to a level that Darnold can, while also playing a cleaner game than him, which helps make my pick. 

Seahawks vs. Rams pick: Rams -3 (-110) at bet365

49ers vs. Cardinals - Nov. 16, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: 49ers -2.5 (-110), Cardinals +2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: 49ers -150, Cardinals +125

• Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

Brock Purdy has a chance to get back under center, though Mac Jones could retain his position as the starter on Sunday. The Niners’ defense has been mostly solid, although it had no answers for Matthew Stafford and the Rams last week. The team beat the Cardinals early in the year, 16-15, though they’re a totally different team roster-wise now than they were back then.

The big news in the desert is that Jacoby Brissett is now the starting quarterback, and Kyler Murray is the backup. Brissett has actually played very good football since getting his shot, but the Cardinals’ defense just surrendered 44 points to the Seahawks, influenced by two fumble-sixes. Jonathan Gannon’s defense is only 28th in success rate despite being 15th in EPA per play, which means they’re used to losing on a play-by-play basis.

The 49ers might be on the road in a divisional matchup, but road favorites have been in vogue this season. Jones has also been in rhythm, while Purdy is a better player than Brissett. Both defenses looked bad last week, but the numbers show that Arizona’s is actually better than San Fran’s. This is a coin flip game, one in which I will look at the better coach.

49ers vs. Cardinals pick: 49ers -2.5 (-110) at bet365

Ravens vs. Browns - Nov. 16, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Ravens -8 (-110), Browns +8 (-110)

• Moneyline: Ravens -425, Browns +325

• Total: Over/under 40 (-110/-110)

The Ravens blew the Browns out earlier this year, 41-17, and would’ve covered this line in four of their last six matchups. They beat the Vikings on the road convincingly last week, and they’re riding a three-game winning streak that saw them beat their opponents by an average of 14.7 points. That’s despite Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry not quite playing their best brands of football.

Dillon Gabriel is terrible, and the Browns just fell to the Jets in a game in which Justin Fields was held to 54 passing yards. Their defense has been outstanding, ranking second in success rate and fourth in EPA per play, but their offense has shown virtually no signs of life. Everything they earn is going to have to come on the back of the defense.

The Ravens’ defense has gotten better over the last few weeks, climbing to sixth in EPA per play against the run. That’s an important stat since the Browns’ offense is largely driven by Quinshon Judkins and their ground game, since Gabriel simply doesn’t look anywhere close to being an NFL quarterback. Strange things happen in these types of games, but I’d back the Ravens on the road.

Ravens vs. Browns pick: Ravens -8 (-110) at bet365

Chiefs vs. Broncos - Nov. 16, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chiefs -4 (-110), Broncos +4 (-110)

• Moneyline: Chiefs -205, Broncos +170

• Total: Over/under 44 (-110/-110)

The Chiefs appear to be back to their old ways now that Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce are all on the field together. Their defense isn’t what it was in recent seasons, but it is still solid and finds creative ways to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes also lost to the Broncos just one time in his NFL career.

Amid the Broncos’ terrific 8-2 start to the year is the hidden truth that Bo Nix has been flat-out bad. The only qualified quarterbacks with lower success rates are Dillon Gabriel and Cam Ward, and a couple of fourth-quarter heroics have completely papered over his poor play. Lucky for him, the Denver defense is flat-out terrific and can shut down any offense in the league on an average day.

Mahomes is going to make plays, even against arguably the best defense in the NFL. Without a takeover wide receiver, tight end, or running back, that means that Nix is going to have to find a way to generate big plays of his own in the face of a Steve Spagnuolo-led defense. Everything that I’ve seen this season indicates that he won’t be able to do that, which is why I think the Chiefs will dominate this matchup.

Chiefs vs. Broncos pick: Chiefs -4 (-110) at bet365

Lions vs. Eagles - Nov. 16, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Lions +2.5 (-105), Eagles -2.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Lions +125, Eagles -150

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

The story of last weekend’s blowout win against the Commanders wasn’t that Jared Goff set a league-wide season-high for combined touchdown and first down percentage, or the Lions racking up the second-most total yards in a game this season—instead, it was that Dan Campbell called plays, and the Lions’ instantly became an even more physical team. They are fifth in offensive and 10th in defensive EPA per play and are confident heading into, arguably, their biggest game of the year.

Nobody can take away from the Eagles the fact that they know how to win football games. At the same time, they look terrible and disconnected more times than not, which makes it even more impressive, yet confusing, that they continue to win at the rate they do. This feels like a team that is on the verge of being totally exposed, but their raw athleticism and sheer depth of talent could also help them continue to scrape wins they don’t deserve.

All good things must come to an end eventually. The Eagles have found a variety of ways to overcome Jalen Hurts’ reluctance to throw the ball, Saquon Barkley’s inefficiency on the ground, and a historic three-and-out rate, but I think that will run out against a talented, imposing, and hungry Lions team. I might even be so bold as to suggest the Lions will win by two scores at the Linc!

Lions vs. Eagles pick: Lions +2.5 (-105) at bet365

Cowboys vs. Raiders - Nov. 17, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cowboys -3.5 (-105), Raiders +3.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Cowboys -180, Raiders +150

• Total: Over/under 50 (-110/-110)

The impending debuts of Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson have created a buzz in Dallas, but the biggest question is if their once-prolific offense can get back in gear after back-to-back duds against the Broncos and the Cardinals. They got to enjoy a bye last week and will be as rested and prepared as they can be before they head down to Sin City. Although they didn’t make a move for a member of the secondary, there’s reason to believe their new arrivals will positively impact their atrocious pass defense.

The Raiders covered but only scored seven points against the Broncos on TNF last week. They were also a two-point conversion away from beating the Jaguars in overtime two weeks ago, which, while disappointing, shows that they have been more competitive recently. Ashton Jeanty can’t get going behind this offensive line, and Geno Smith still has more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (11).

The Raiders’ defense looked better in recent weeks since getting blown out by the Chiefs, 31-0. The problem is that I have no confidence that their offense will do anything productive, even against an awful Cowboys D. I believe that Dallas can harness their offensive explosiveness and leverage their new arrivals to win this game by at least a touchdown. 

Cowboys vs. Raiders pick: Cowboys -3.5 (-105) at bet365

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