NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread: Packers Survive Without Parsons, Are the Jags Super Bowl Contenders?

• The Rams and Seahawks, who play each other on TNF, are a league-best 10-4 against the spread

• The Raiders, Buccaneers, Browns, Commanders and Ravens are all a league-worst 5-9 ATS

• Oddsmakers have been on the money this season, with 50/50 splits between home and road teams and 51/49 splits between dogs and favorites

There’s less than one month until the NFL playoffs begin… but before the football world arrives at that moment, it’s time to talk about the best bets against the spread in NFL Week 16.

I was all over the marquee matchups last week, predicting the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos would win outright. The New Orleans Saints and Washington Commanders tripped me up with their victories, but they didn’t disrupt what has been a winning season since the first game of the year.

As the stakes continue to increase, the matchups are only getting better and better. 

Here are all of my best picks and bets to cover the spread in NFL Week 16.  

• My 2025 NFL betting stats: 119-101-4 (54.1% ATS)

NFL Week 16 Picks ATS

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Rams vs. Seahawks - Dec. 18, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Rams -1 (-105), Seahawks +1 (-115)

• Moneyline: Rams -110, Seahawks -110

• Total: Over/under 44 (-110/-110)

After a shaky start, Matthew Stafford rounded back into MVP form, going for 368 yards, two TDs, and an INT in a 41-34 win against the Lions last week. The defense was cut to pieces by Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams in a rare poor showing, but they’ve been outstanding for the majority of the year. They barely snuck past the Seahawks thanks to a missed field goal the last time they played the Seahawks, but their defense forced Sam Darnold into no TDs and four INTs.

The Seahawks improved to 11-3 last week, although they got a real scare from the Philip Rivers-led Colts. The final score was heavily influenced by the winners going 0-2 in the red zone, but their defense held Indy to a wildly impressive 3.7 yards per play. Rivers ended the day 18/27 with 120 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, while Darnold was 22/36 with 271 yards.

As outstanding as the Seahawks’ run defense is, they haven’t been able to run the ball all year. That’s an issue, seeing as Darnold had 0 passing touchdowns in three of his last five starts, and the Rams have been excellent in every aspect of the game. Even though they’re on the road on a short week against a divisional opponent, I’ll take the better team.

Rams vs. Seahawks pick: Rams -1 (-105) at bet365

Eagles vs. Commanders - Dec. 20, 5:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Eagles -6.5 (-110), Commanders +6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Eagles -300, Commanders +240

• Total: Over/under 45 (-110/-110)

The Raiders gained a total of 75 yards last week in their 31-0 loss to the Eagles (yes, that’s real). The Birds gained 183 yards on the ground, albeit on 3.9 yards per carry, while Jalen Hurts had 175 yards and three passing touchdowns. The Raiders have been a miserable team all year, so as impressive as Philly’s performance was, it means very little because of the opponent.

Hooray for the Commanders, who snapped their eight-game losing streak with an eight-point road win against the Giants on Sunday. They’re back on their home field this week, clouded by the news that Jayden Daniels won’t return this season. The Dan Quinn-led defense hasn’t taken a noticeable step forward, and the best news last week was that rookie “Bill” Croskey-Merritt scored his first touchdown since Week 5.

The Eagles have been incredibly disappointing from a betting perspective, but the Commanders have been flat-out terrible. Even last week, they tried their best to throw away a commanding lead with two fumbles in the final six minutes. The Commanders will still probably get up for this game, and it would be fitting for them to cover in a loss.

Eagles vs. Commanders pick: Commanders +6.5 (-110) at bet365

Packers vs. Bears - Dec. 20, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Packers -1.5 (-110), Bears +1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Packers -120, Bears +100

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

The Packers’ Super Bowl dreams took a significant hit last week as Micah Parsons tore his ACL in a loss to the Broncos. They now find themselves as only 1.5-point favorites against a Bears team they were favored to beat by 6.5 points two weeks ago. Jordan Love was dialed in last week and has been great nearly all year, but the defense is going to need to rethink its pressure packages without Parsons.

The Bears responded to a hard-fought loss against the Packers by throttling the Browns, 31-3. Caleb Williams went for 242 yards and two TDs, while the running game, as it usually is with Ben Johnson, was very efficient. Their defense is also getting better with time, rising to 11th in success rate since the start of Week 9.

Losing Parsons definitely hurts, but the Packers aren’t scrubs. Williams made plays outside of the pocket when these two played last time, and it was the methodical run-first approach, combined with controlling the time of possession, that helped the Bears hang around (but fail to do enough to win). I expect a similar style of game, in which the Packers come out on top.

Packers vs. Bears pick: Packers -1.5 (-110) at bet365

Bills vs. Browns - Dec. 21, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bills -10 (-110), Browns +10 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bills -550, Browns +400

• Total: Over/under 42 (-110/-110)

It turns out that falling into 21-point holes is exactly where the Bills want to be. Josh Allen rallied the troops behind 193 yards and three touchdowns, while James Cook ran for 107 yards and two scores in the improbable comeback. The defense was horrible against the run, as it has been all year, but they also held Drake Maye out of the end zone and to less than 200 yards passing for the first time all season.

I warned the NFL world not to overreact to Shedeur Sanders playing a really good game against the worst team in football (the Titans), and I was vindicated on Sunday. Excluding that Titans game, Sanders averaged 178.3 passing yards per start, and has two touchdowns to five interceptions. That’s on top of having a QBR of 16.9, which includes his career day against Tennessee.

The Browns have an elite defense at their best, but that doesn’t mean anything if they aren’t playing at that level. On the flip side, the Bills’ run defense has proven to be a consistent issue, but they were phenomenal against Maye. I like the Bills to run away with this one due to Cleveland’s lowly offense.

Bills vs. Browns pick: Bills -10 (-110) at bet365

Bengals vs. Dolphins - Dec. 21, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bengals +1 (-115), Dolphins -1 (-105)

• Moneyline: Bengals -110, Dolphins -110

• Total: Over/under 42 (-110/-110)

Joe Burrow’s depressing comments during the midweek carried onto the field, as he went for 225 yards and two interceptions, and the Bengals fell to the Ravens, 24-0. They never had a chance of stopping Baltimore on the ground, and they simply won’t win football games without Burrow being excellent. He can get to that level, but he seems to be fighting through mental battles off the field.

The Dolphins were horrible to start the year, but to their credit, they weathered the storm. Mike McDaniel got his team to respond, against all odds, and they now find themselves against another bad team with explosive potential and a horrible defense. There’s no doubt that Burrow can outplay Tua Tagovailoa, but McDaniel is the better of the two coaches, and the Dolphins’ recent winning streak was more impressive than anything the Bengals did all year.

Tagovailoa is a walking turnover risk in a way that Burrow isn’t anywhere near. On the flip side, I’d rather have the Fins’ defense and running game, which is a major indictment against the visitors. Miami doesn’t have to play in cold weather on the road, which means their home fans will get to be comfortable as they enjoy another loss at the hands of an elite QB.

Bengals vs. Dolphins pick: Bengals +1 (-115) at bet365

Chiefs vs. Titans - Dec. 21, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chiefs -3 (-115), Titans +3 (-105)

• Moneyline: Chiefs -185, Titans +155

• Total: Over/under 37.5 (-110/-110)

Watching the Chiefs play football without Patrick Mahomes is going to take some getting used to. Gardner Minshew is a reputable backup in the league, but what will he do in place of a do-it-all QB that had led a struggling offense, especially with the defense struggling to get off of the field on third down? All of these are questions that will be answered, in part, on Sunday. 

Cam Ward is often running for his life amid the total chaos that is the Tennessee Titans. He’s showcased his potential, but he’s never really generated any consistent production, largely because of the ineptitude surrounding him. That doesn't get better on the other side, where the Titans are comfortably one of the worst defensive teams in football.

It’s a shock to the system to see the Chiefs only as three-point favorites, even without Mahomes on the field. The Titans’ only wins came against the Cardinals and the Browns, and eight of their 12 losses were by more than one score. The Chiefs are probably ready to give up on their season, and honestly, I could see the Titans winning outright.

Chiefs vs. Titans pick: Titans +3 (-105) at bet365

Chargers vs. Cowboys - Dec. 21, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chargers +2 (-110), Cowboys -2 (-110)

• Moneyline: Chargers +110, Cowboys -130

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

The Chargers haven’t won games in exciting ways, but they’ve often gotten the job done. That said, winning six of their last seven games didn’t necessarily prove anything, given the teams they beat, and the time at which they beat them. Justin Herbert has struggled to produce week-to-week, but the Bolts’ defense held three straight opponents below 20 points.

Right when the Cowboys convinced the world they were a good football team, they lost back-to-back games to the Lions and Vikings, surrendering 78 combined points in the process. Dak Prescott and the company can throw on nearly anyone, but there are still serious questions about their defense. Dallas also doesn’t generate a ton of pressure, which could be a fatal flaw if Herbert gets time in the pocket behind backup offensive linemen.

These teams are basically opposites of one another. The Chargers play within the margins and don’t do anything exciting, while the Cowboys have tons of pizazz, but don’t make winning plays (mostly thanks to their defense). Even on the road, I think the underdogs are the better bet to win this game straight up.

Chargers vs. Cowboys pick: Chargers +2 (-110) at bet365

Vikings vs. Giants - Dec. 21, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Vikings -3 (-105), Giants +3 (-115)

• Moneyline: Vikings -160, Giants +135

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

J.J. McCarthy was on fire each of the last two weeks against NFC East opponents, so why not a third? In all reality, the Vikings are an incredibly well-coached team, and they have talent at nearly every position on the field. McCarthy is still far from a guarantee on a down-to-down basis, but he’s in the middle of his best stretch as a pro, and the Giants’ defense has been friendly to opponents.

Speaking of the Giants, their failed comeback bid against the Commanders ensured that they held onto the projected first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Jaxson Dart has cooled off since returning to the field following his hot start, and he’s gotten checked for a concussion in five of 10 games. That’s both troubling and a sign that he needs to change his style of play to continue to be available for his team.

The majority of the Giants’ talent is on their defensive line, yet they haven’t been great at stopping the run or getting after quarterbacks. McCarthy is young and will make mistakes, but he’s insulated by talent and a coach who will take care of him. The Giants are 2-12 for a reason, and I expect them to lose in front of the few fans who make it to the stadium.

Vikings vs. Giants pick: Vikings -3 (-105) at bet365

Jets vs. Saints - Dec. 21, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jets +4 (-110), Saints -4 (-110)

• Moneyline: Jets +180, Saints -220

• Total: Over/under 40 (-110/-110)

It will take a higher power to understand who will start at quarterback for the Jets, given that they seem to rotate them every week. What is clear is that the defense is the problem, judging by last weekend, when they gave up 48 points on the road to the Jaguars. There’s hardly any talent left on the offense, and although the D had actually played better after losing Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, that clearly isn’t the case anymore.

Tyler Shough is playing better than I expected him to, helping to lead the Saints to three wins in their last five games (two of those coming against the Panthers). The biggest story is the improvement of their defense, which ranked sixth in EPA per play since Week 10. All that said, they’re 1-8 against teams outside of the NFC South, and that one win was against the Giants.

This is the NFL, where crazy things happen. Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor returning to the field could give the Jets a punch, and their defense, in all likelihood, won’t give up another six touchdowns to the opposing QB. Professional teams don’t like getting embarrassed, and there’s a world in which the Jets show a pulse on Sunday.

Jets vs. Saints pick: Jets +4 (-110) at bet365

Buccaneers vs. Panthers - Dec. 21, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Buccaneers -3 (-105), Panthers +3 (-115)

• Moneyline: Buccaneers -160, Panthers +135

• Total: Over/under 46 (-110/-110)

Todd Bowles’ incensed speech after last week’s loss to the Falcons painted a troubling picture for the Bucs, who lost five of their last six games. This team has all of the talent needed to have one of highest-scoring offenses in the NFL, and more than enough to get by on defense. Despite that, they’ve given up 44 points to the Bills, lost by 27 to the Rams, and lost back-to-back games at home against the Saints and Falcons.

The Panthers are one of the strangest teams in football. While they’re totally unexplosive, they usually win more downs than they lose. They also beat great teams, like the Packers and Rams, but will then do stupid things like lose to the Saints twice in a month and score nine or fewer points in three of their last six games.

It’s easy to be disappointed in the Bucs, while it’s easy to be confused by the Panthers. The trouble here is differentiating the two and discerning which team will show up and play its best football on Sunday. The Panthers can be tough on defense, but the Bucs can be even better on offense. That’s why I care more about the weaknesses rather than the strengths, and based on that, I side with…

Buccaneers vs. Panthers pick: Buccaneers -3 (-105) at bet365

Falcons vs. Cardinals - Dec. 21, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Falcons -2.5 (-115), Cardinals +2.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Falcons -150, Cardinals +125

• Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)

Kirk Cousins needed a minute to get his feet under him, but he just ripped off 373 yards and three touchdowns in a win over the Buccaneers. Now, a Falcons team that finally has a bit of confidence gets a long week of rest, since it last played on Thursday Night Football. Their defense has gotten worse as the year progressed, but they’re still seventh in pressure for the year.

Something strange is going on with Jacoby Brissett, who is getting tons of yards every week, but who also isn’t delivering his team to wins. The easy, and probably, the right thing to do, is blame the defense, which is 29th in EPA allowed per play since Week 10. It doesn’t help that the Cardinals can’t run the football one iota without James Conner in the lineup.

Here it is. The Falcons have been disappointing, wasted the talents of game-breaking offensive players, and are playing a 37-year-old backup quarterback, yet they are the obvious play in this situation. The Cardinals might be at home, but their defense looks terrible, and Brissett’s strong box scores produced a record of 1-8 during his time as the starter.

Falcons vs. Cardinals pick: Falcons -2.5 (-115) at bet365

Jaguars vs. Broncos - Dec. 21, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jaguars +3 (-110), Broncos -3 (-110)

• Moneyline: Jaguars +145, Broncos -170

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

Trevor Lawrence might’ve just played the best game of his NFL career, racking up six total touchdowns in a 48-20 win over the Jets. He and the offense have looked much more in sync over the last month, and that, combined with their elite defense, has them looking like a real threat to win the AFC Championship. The question is whether that will translate against a Broncos team that holds the number-one seed in the AFC.

The Broncos scored a huge home win over the Packers last week, 34-26. The best sign was that Bo Nix rose and shone against elite competition, going for 302 yards and four touchdowns, while his defense coaxed Jordan Love into two INTs. The Broncos’ defense is beyond questioning and might be the best in the NFL, while the team is 7-0 in its stadium.

I love the job that Liam Coen has done in Jacksonville, especially by getting the defense to the level it’s at. Lawrence has looked really impressive recently, but he’s about to get his toughest test of the season. Given his ever-present turnover risk, I have to lay the points with the favorites.

Jaguars vs. Broncos pick: Broncos -3 (-110) at bet365

Raiders vs. Texans - Dec. 21, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Raiders +14 (-110), Texans -14 (-110)

• Moneyline: Raiders +625, Texans -950

• Total: Over/under 38 (-110/-110)

Watching the Raiders play football should be considered a form of cruel and unusual punishment. They gained 75 yards AS A TEAM in last week’s 31-0 loss to the Eagles, their second 31-0 defeat THIS SEASON! Their offense can’t be counted on to score seven points, and their defense simply has no hope of covering for an offense that looks this lifeless.

On the flip side, the Texans’ defense looks like it can score 14 points on its own. The secondary is fast and physical and plays airtight coverage, while the front-seven is loaded with heat-seeking missiles that love the thrill of getting to the quarterback. C.J. Stroud has also found a rhythm since coming back from his concussion and is doing enough to help this team win football games.

Laying 14 points is never fun, but the Texans have a top-two defense in the NFL, and the Raiders might not score a point if you and I suited up this weekend. Kenny Pickett, Geno Smith, it doesn’t matter, that offense is putrid and beyond help this season. Sacrifice the two touchdowns and enjoy the beatdown that’s coming to Houston.

Raiders vs. Texans pick: Texans -14 (-110) at bet365

Steelers vs. Lions - Dec. 21, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Steelers +7 (-110), Lions -7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Steelers +260, Lions -320

• Total: Over/under 52 (-110/-110)

On one side, we have the Steelers, a team that was built on defense, but isn’t very good, and has a Hall of Fame quarterback clutching onto the joy of sharing a locker room with his teammates. They’re stubbornly committed to running the football and having Aaron Rodgers check it down, although I must admit, they looked pretty fluid during their back-to-back wins. Let’s see how that holds up against a team with a pulse.

On the other hand, we have one of the most exciting and talent-rich teams in football, but one that somehow has the same 8-6 record as the Steelers. The Lions haven’t won consecutive games since Week 5, but as they’re coming off of a loss, that might not matter in this matchup. Jared Goff is slinging the football, and it’s the running game that has uncharacteristically disappeared at different points (not that Goff hasn’t had his dull moments). 

Mike Tomlin has a sparkling record against the spread as an underdog, while Dan Campbell simply doesn’t lose two weeks in a row. Of course, there’s a world in which the Lions win and don’t cover, but that also doesn’t fit Campbell’s mantra of going guns blazing and running up the score any time he can. The Lions are only 24th in defensive EPA per play in the back half of the season, but I think they have enough juice to hold the line in their dome.

Steelers vs. Lions pick: Lions -7 (-110) at bet365

Patriots vs. Ravens - Dec. 21, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Patriots +3 (-115), Ravens -3 (-105)

• Moneyline: Patriots +135, Ravens -160

• Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)

I’ll admit that I was shocked when I saw this line, and that worries me about what I’m missing. Drake Maye was held under 200 passing yards for the first time all year last weekend, but TreVeyon Henderson carried the rock 14 times for 148 yards despite that. The defense only looks average, but Maye is still second in NFL MVP odds and has dominated defenses downfield all year.

On the other side, the Ravens are coming off a 24-0 win over the Bengals, during which Joe afcBurrow looked like he was playing while wearing a blindfold. The team gained 189 rushing yards in only 24 carries, while Lamar Jackson had 150 yards, two TDs, and an INT in only 12 attempts. The Ravens won six of their last eight, but they only beat one team with a winning record, the Bears, during that span.

I know why the line is where it is, but it’s also time that we, as a collective, stop holding the Ravens to the standard we did during the offseason. They are a flawed football team with a quarterback who looks totally out of sorts, and a defense that is playing much better, but taking advantage of bad opponents. The Pats need a response, and I trust Mike Vrabel to produce one.

Patriots vs. Ravens pick: Patriots +3 (-115) at bet365

49ers vs. Colts - Dec. 22, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: 49ers -6 (-110), Colts +6 (-110)

• Moneyline: 49ers -280, Colts +230

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

Credit to the 49ers coaching staff for helping the team survive their litany of injuries and getting them to 10-4, including a four-game winning streak. Granted, they haven’t beaten a team above .500 since Week 5, but Brock Purdy and company are finding their rhythm. It’s worth keeping an eye on their struggling defense, especially since they ranked dead last in defensive rushing success rate after the first two months of the season.

The Colts lost four straight games, all to quality opponents, and three of those losses came by four or fewer points. Philip Rivers’ NFL return last week saw him go 18/27 for 120 yards, a touchdown, and a game-ending interception on a botched game-winning drive. Teams have learned to key in on Jonathan Taylor, who hasn’t had a 100-yard rushing game since Nov. 9, while the defense is 17th in EPA per play since their bye week in Week 11.

The Niners’ troubles against the run are a glaring red flag. Rivers also shouldn’t have been expected to do anything impressive after only just getting back under center and looking horribly out of shape. On the primetime stage and fighting for their playoff lives, I think the Colts have the chance to do something special.

49ers vs. Colts pick: Colts +6 (-110) at bet365

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