NFL Week 8 Picks Against the Spread: Bills Super Bowl Hopes Back on Track, Chiefs Dominate Primetime?

• The Ravens are the worst team against the spread at 1-5

• The Cardinals and Giants are the only teams with losing records and winning records ATS

• Home favorites covered in 55 percent of games this season

The NFL is approaching the halfway mark of the 2025 season, and I have the best picks against the spread for every game in Week 8.

I suffered my first losing week of the year in Week 7, going 7-8 with my picks. We’re still in the green for the year, and ripping off another six-week winning streak would be more than enough to keep me happy.

After reflecting on where I went wrong last week, I’m here to share my best NFL bets against the spread for Week 8. Don’t get scared now, because the season is still just getting started.

• My 2025 NFL betting stats: 59-47-2 (55.7% ATS)

NFL Week 8 Picks ATS

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Vikings vs. Chargers - Oct. 23, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Vikings +2.5 (-105), Chargers -2.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Vikings +125, Chargers -150

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

Not even Kevin O’Connell could coach the silly mistakes out of Carson Wentz, who threw two picks and no touchdowns and had to settle for key red-zone field goals in a 22-28 loss to the Eagles last week. The Vikings are the best-coached team in the league, but they had their worst showing of the year in the secondary as they gave up 326 yards and three touchdowns to Jalen Hurts. The key will be minimizing Wentz’s responsibility and restoring the tough secondary.

The Chargers lost yet another tackle in last week’s 38-24 loss to the Colts, moving them to 1-3 in their last four games. Justin Herbert had a career-high 420 passing yards out of desperation, but he also threw two interceptions, while the running game took 16 carries for 54 yards. LA’s once-staunch defense has become friendly to opponents, which is a major concern against a team with Minnesota's offensive ingenuity. 

The Vikings are likely going to present tons of trouble for the Chargers, given their terrible offensive line play (greatly influenced by injuries) and the absence of Omarion Hampton. However, their secondary was as bad as it's been this season last week, and they’re on the road on a short week. Both teams are well-coached, but I quietly think that a clean game from Wentz means the Vikings can win.

Vikings v. Chargers pick: Vikings +2.5 (-105) at bet365

Bills vs. Panthers - Oct. 26, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bills -7 (-105), Panthers +7 (-115)

• Moneyline: Bills -380, Panthers +300

• Total: Over/under 47 (-110/-110)

The Bills are hoping to put their bye week to good use, seeing as they dropped back-to-back contests against the Patriots and Panthers after a 4-0 start. Josh Allen has thrown an interception in three straight games, but the bigger story is that Buffalo’s defense has underperformed in several areas, namely their awful run defense. Sean McDermott is a good coach, but is he a great one?

The Panthers are officially hot and riding a three-game winning streak following their win over the Jets. Bryce Young has a bum ankle, although the speed with which he walked off the field on Sunday suggests he could be available this weekend. The defense, meanwhile, is easily a top-10 unit in the NFL and held the Jets to 220 yards and six points (for whatever that’s worth).

Young’s availability is in question, but I’d worry about a fully healthy version of him against the Bills following a bye week. Rico Dowdle is balling, and the Bills can’t stop the run, but I’m not convinced that the Panthers have made the jump enough to be competitive against the Bills. It’s chalk talk for me.

Bills vs. Panthers pick: Bills -7 (-105) at bet365

Bears vs. Ravens - Oct. 26, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bears +7 (-110), Ravens -7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bears +270, Ravens -340

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

The Bears recorded their fourth straight victory of the season thanks to an opportunistic and stifling performance by their defense. D’Andre Swift also got over 100 yards rushing for the second straight week, but Caleb Williams did not play well again (sorry, box score watchers). Chicago’s recently improved run defense will also be in for quite the test against Baltimore.

The odds for this game indicate that Lamar Jackson, who missed the last couple of weeks, is returning to action. The 1-5 Ravens have been terrible all over, but especially on defense, against the pass and the run. They got to spend last week enjoying their bye and self-scouting to diagnose their shortcomings, which they hope will lead to a different team taking the field over the final months of the season.

The Bears are winning games and seem to have unlocked their running game. Ben Johnson has done a terrific job of game planning for the offense, and their defense forces interceptions at the highest rate in the NFL. I think the Ravens will come out playing much better, but I can’t trust them to cover a seven-point line.

Bears vs. Ravens pick: Bears +7 (-110) at bet365

Browns vs. Patriots - Oct. 26, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Browns +7 (-110), Patriots -7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Browns +280, Patriots -360

• Total: Over/under 40.5 (-110/-110)

Dillon Gabriel barely needed to throw the ball in a windy-and-rainy-day victory over the Dolphins, 31-6. Quinshon Judkins showcased his explosiveness as he fought for three touchdowns on the ground, while the defense forced three interceptions and a fumble against Tua Tagovailoa and company. The Browns’ defense is special, and Gabriel’s ability to protect the football makes them more competitive than they were early in the year.

Drake Maye is one of the hottest players in the league, and the Pats have a real runway to 11 or 12 wins with their schedule down the stretch. The team just thumped the Titans by 18 points and gets to head back home, where it beat the Panthers 42-13 its last time out. This defense will give Maye one of the most difficult tests after his career, though he already logged a solid game against the Bills in Week 5.

The Browns are more than capable of disrupting any team with their defense, but their ability to keep pace on offense is in question. It’s also hard to know if Maye is legitimately a top-10 QB in the league, or if he’s just on a red-hot run. I’ll take the Pats to cover because of their explosiveness and the Browns’ lack thereof.

Browns vs. Patriots pick: Patriots -7 (-110) at bet365

Dolphins vs. Falcons - Oct. 26, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Dolphins +7.5 (-110), Falcons -7.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Dolphins +280, Falcons -360

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

The Dolphins are a near-indefensible football team. Tua Tagovailoa threw another three interceptions last week, bringing him to 10 on the year, while the team is 28th in rushing success rate. They’re also horrible at every level on defense, not to mention they have a plethora of injuries at multiple positions.

The Falcons are truly a curious team. Michael Penix Jr. was off to a terrible start to the year, found his rhythm, led the team to back-to-back wins against the Commanders and Bills, and then only put up 10 points in Monday’s loss to the 49ers. The defense has been opportunistic but was gashed on the ground in their last outing as they head back to their home stadium on a short week.

The Falcons are clearly a much better team than the Dolphins. That said, their team, specifically their offense, is wildly inconsistent for a team that appears to have the ceiling that they do. I’ll take the Dolphins, even though I believe they’re on the verge of a collapse (or a fire sale), since I can’t confidently say the Falcons will beat any team by two scores.

Dolphins vs. Falcons pick: Dolphins +7.5 (-110) at bet365

Giants vs. Eagles - Oct. 26, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Giants +7 (-110), Eagles -7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Giants +275, Eagles -350

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

Is revenge a dish best served at all? The Giants took down the Eagles two weeks ago, 34-17, but they just lost a heartbreaker to the Broncos, they’ll be eager to avenge. Jaxson Dart has been impressive with his arm and his legs, but the inconsistent defense means there are high peaks and low valleys for the team.

The Eagles had a hard-fought, physical win over the Vikings last week, during which Jalen Hurts produced arguably the best deep-ball passing game of his career. At the same time, many of his best throws were on broken or “second plays,” and Saquon Barkley struggled again, suggesting the offense’s struggles to scheme players into optimal positions still exist. The defense is also only 15th in EPA per play and 23rd in success rate.

I’d love to give this one to the Giants since they are the “fun” team of the league, and especially since Philly’s offense has been a brutal watch. However, I keep running into the same line of logic, which is that the Eagles have to be better than what they’ve shown so far. This team has talent and finally got the downfield passing going last week, so I’ll take them on their home field.

Giants vs. Eagles pick: Eagles -7 (-110) at bet365

Jets vs. Bengals - Oct. 26, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jets +6.5 (-105), Bengals -6.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Jets +250, Bengals -310

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

It appears as if the Jets will be moving forward with Tyrod Taylor under center after Justin Fields was benched at halftime of last week’s loss to the Panthers, 13-6. Taylor showed more pizazz, throwing the ball beyond the line of scrimmage, but he also coughed up two interceptions on a day when the defense played well enough to win the game. The Jets are the only team in the NFL that still hasn’t won a game, but they are 3-4 against the spread… for whatever that matters.

Joe Flacco lit up the Cincinnati sky in an unexpected win against the Steelers, during which he threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns just one week after he was acquired in a trade with the Browns. I’m interested to see if he will continue to play at that level with his new cast of weapons, or if he will regress to the middling player he was the last few years. Either way, I’m confident he’ll have one of the league’s worst defenses backing him up.

This game is as tricky as it gets. One team is likely starting their backup quarterback, while the other is starting a new arrival who just produced an outlier performance, but who also has a long week of rest and preparation. It’s never easy to be confident in betting on a winless team this far into the season, but I’m going to make the call.

Jets vs. Bengals pick: Jets +6.5 (-105) at bet365

49ers vs. Texans - Oct. 26, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: 49ers +1 (-110), Texans -1 (-110)

• Moneyline: 49ers -105, Texans -115

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

The Niners have gotten the job done with Mac Jones in the absence of Brock Purdy. Jones averaged nearly 281 passing yards per game and had six touchdowns to four interceptions, while Christian McCaffrey just had a season-high 129 rushing yards in George Kittle’s return to the lineup. The defense also stymied the Falcons without Nick Bosa or Fred Warner on the field thanks to Robert Saleh’s excellent adjustments.

As more time passes, the question becomes less about what it will take for C.J. Stroud to look like the player he was as a rookie, and more about how he ever looked like that at all. The third-year QB looks lost at times in the pocket, while the team really struggles to run the football. Their passing defense is elite, but their run defense is only average.

The Niners want to control the clock and run the ball, which they just did to great effect. Jones has also been able to move the ball downfield, while the Texans’ offense has sputtered. The better team is an underdog here, which presents an unmissable betting opportunity (for me, at least).

49ers vs. Texans pick: 49ers +1 (-110) at bet365

Buccaneers vs. Saints - Oct. 26, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Buccaneers -4 (-110), Saints +4 (-110)

• Moneyline: Buccaneers -225, Saints +185

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

The Bucs’ only losses this season are to the Eagles and Lions, arguably the two strongest teams in the conference. Baker Mayfield’s NFL MVP campaign came to a screeching halt during Monday’s loss to the Lions, and the team is likely to be without Mike Evans for the entire year. Tampa’s defense makes plays and is especially stout against the run, but its pass coverage doesn’t always hold up down-to-down.

Spencer Rattled just turned in his first truly bad game of the season in a 26-14 loss to the Bears, during which he threw three interceptions and lost a fumble. That kind of performance won’t get it done with a team that is mostly bereft of talent, although the defense has shown improvement over the last few weeks. Although Tampa is injured, this will still be a nice test for the New Orleans secondary.

The Bucs shouldn’t have been expected to win last week due to the injuries they endured on the offensive line, at receiver, and in the backfield. Emeka Egbuka should be back to full strength, and Mayfield has been much better than he just showed. This is still a short week on the road, but the Bucs look like the better choice. 

Buccaneers vs. Saints pick: Buccaneers -4 (-110) at bet365

Cowboys vs. Broncos - Oct. 26, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cowboys +3.5 (-120), Broncos -3.5 (+100)

• Moneyline: Cowboys +145, Broncos -170

• Total: Over/under 50.5 (-110/-110)

Dak Prescott’s MVP tour is in full swing, as he’s up to 1,881 yards, 16 touchdowns, and only three interceptions, while ranking first in QBR and fourth in EPA per play. The Dallas defense is still abysmal, and nothing new was revealed about them last week playing against the Commanders’ practice squad receivers. They’ve struggled to defend mobile quarterbacks despite being a zone-heavy team, and Bo Nix will test their discipline.

The Broncos were on the cusp of an embarrassing loss to the Giants until they scored an unprecedented 33 points in the fourth quarter to win, 33-32. Nix was only 27/50 but finished the game with 279 yards and two touchdowns in what finished as his best game of the year. The Denver defense is outstanding, but they need to get off to a much better start.

As terrible as the Cowboys’ defense has been, it feels as if they simply have to improve. The Broncos are already playing at an elite level defense, but their offense doesn’t feel like it “must” have the same type of improvement as the Dallas D. Nix’s heroics late in the game masked another terrible start, and he’s only 20th in EPA per play among qualified QBs. 

Cowboys vs. Broncos pick: Cowboys +3.5 (-120) at bet365

Titans vs. Colts - Oct. 26, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Titans +14 (-110), Colts -14 (-110)

• Moneyline: Titans +700, Colts -1100

• Total: Over/under 47 (-110/-110)

Tennessee came out playing inspired ball against the Patriots and had a real chance to take a 13-10 lead into halftime. The Pats came out and put them away in the second half, just like good teams should, but there was still a noticeable improvement in Cam Ward’s game. The Titans can do a solid job at defending against the run but still give up big plays left and right.

The Colts are averaging more points per possession than any team this century, and they just hung 38 points against the Chargers on the road. Both Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor are legitimate MVP candidates, and the defense is right about league average, which is more than enough with the way the offense is playing. There’s still a bit of a “magic carpet ride” feeling to this team, but they’ve been nothing short of excellent.

With every passing week, the Colts become a larger threat to make a run through the AFC in the playoffs. Shane Steichen is a terrific coach and finally has his team playing the way he wants, but he’s about to run into a willing risk-taker, Ward, and a divisional opponent that showed signs of improvement last week. This might sound strange, but I’m just not sure that I can back the Colts to win by three scores.

Titans vs. Colts pick: Titans +14 (-110) at bet365

Packers vs. Steelers - Oct. 26, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Packers -3 (-120), Steelers +3 (+100)

• Moneyline: Packers -180, Steelers +150

• Total: Over/under 45 (-110/-110)

There’s a strange phenomenon going on with the Packers, who have failed to cover the spread in four straight games. The team went 2-1-1 during that time and has had flashes, most notably Micah Parsons’ three sacks last week, but they haven’t dominated in all three phases. The offense still puts itself in advantageous positions more times than not, but the defense has been suspiciously porous.

The Steelers are in a similar boat to the Packers, which is only fitting, given the Aaron Rodgers connection. The Pittsburgh offense is frustratingly committed to running the ball, but Rodgers and company have found ways to generate chunk plays through the air. The defense looks terrible against run and pass, and they’re down to 11th in pressure rate despite spending more money on their defense than any team in the NFL.

Mike Tomlin covers the spread about three-fourths of the time he’s a home underdog. That, Rodgers’ Packers reunion, and the Packers’ recent defensive struggles all suggest that the home team is the better pick here… but I like the consistency with which the visitors move the football, and I believe they have a better chance to create a game-changing moment on defense.

Packers vs. Steelers pick: Packers -3 (-120) at bet365

Commanders vs. Chiefs - Oct. 27, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Commanders +10 (-110), Chiefs -10 (-110)

• Moneyline: Commanders +425, Chiefs -575

• Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)

Injuries have totally derailed the Commanders’ season. They were down their top three wideouts on Sunday, they’re now without three top edge rushers, and Jayden Daniels has his second injury (hamstring) of the season. Defensively, their secondary looks like the least coordinated unit in the NFL, and they should be much worse without Dorance Armstrong there to set the edge and get after opposing QBs.

The Chiefs have figured it out. They are in the top five in offensive EPA per play, success rate, and DVOA, and scored 30 points in three of their last four games. They still can’t run the football, but they haven’t needed to to be effective thanks to all of the extensions of the running game they create by throwing the football.

This line is an obvious indication that the oddsmakers don’t believe Daniels will be ready for kick-off. In reality, his status could be determined by the statuses of Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin, as the Commanders looked uncompetitive against a worse Cowboys team last weekend. Washington’s defense is miserable, but there is still a chance Daniels plays, and this line shrinks to within six points.

Commanders vs. Chiefs pick: Commanders +10 (-110) at bet365

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