Raiders vs. Cowboys Same Game Parlay Picks: The Raiders Are a Disaster

• This game marks Quinnen Williams’ debut with the Dallas Cowboys since being traded from the New York Jets for a second-round pick in 2026 and a first-round pick in 2027. 

• Raiders quarterback Geno Smith has just one touchdown pass against Cover-2 and Cover-3 all season.

• Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker has finished with four receptions or fewer in six of nine games. 

To conclude Week 11 of the 2025-26 NFL season, we have the Las Vegas Raiders at home against the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys are coming off a bye week, and this will mark the first game since the team traded a second-round pick in 2026 and a first-round pick in 2027 for the perennial All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. This was very much needed as the Cowboys rank 31st in our NFL defense rankings.

As for Super Bowl odds, neither team is on the radar, but there's still plenty of value from a betting perspective, which I'll examine below in a 3-leg Same Game Parlay with +325 odds.

Raiders vs. Cowboys Same Game Parlay Picks

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Geno Smith 200+ Passing Yards (-245) at Fanatics Sportsbook

Through nine games, Smith has thrown for 200 yards or more four times, but now, he’s taking on a Cowboys defence that’s allowing over 271 passing yards per game, and all but two quarterbacks have fallen short of 200 yards. That said, one of the quarterbacks that fell short, Bryce Young, had 199 yards. 

The Cowboys primarily play Cover-2 and Cover-3. Against these coverages, Smith has completed nearly 76% of his passes while averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. 

The Raiders are also underdogs at home, so I expect Smith to need to throw to try to keep up with a Cowboys offense that averages 378.4 yards (4th) and 29.2 points (fourth) per game. 

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Geno Smith Under 1.5 Pass TDs (-115) at Fanatics Sportsbook

While I picked Smith to throw for 200 yards, that’s not exactly a passing yardage total that necessarily correlates to him having passing touchdown success. 

Going back to Cover-2 and Cover-3, this season, across 116 attempts, Smith may be completing nearly 76% of his passes, but has just one touchdown against said coverages all season. 

Not only that, but of Smith’s 11 touchdown passes, three have gone to running back Ashton Jeanty, and the Cowboys have only allowed two receiving touchdowns to running backs all season long. 

After 116 pass attempts, we have enough evidence to know how Smith does against the coverages the Cowboys most often play. 

I think he’ll have one passing touchdown, but that’s it. 

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Tre Tucker Under 4.5 Receptions (-230) at Fanatics Sportsbook

Finally, for the final leg, I’m taking the under on Tucker’s receptions at 4.5. 

This season, Tucker has caught four passes or fewer in six of nine games. In Week 10, you would’ve thought that with Jakobi Meyers being traded, this would open up more opportunities for Tucker, but that wasn’t the case: He caught just two passes on three targets for 28 yards. 

Of his 34 catches, 17 have come against Cover-2 and Cover-3. That said, if you look at the game logs, he’s only surpassed 4.5 catches against these coverages in two of nine games, and in one of those games, against the Kansas City Chiefs, tight end Brock Bowers didn’t play. 

This is far too big a line, even against a lousy Cowboys defense, to comfortably rely on Tucker to have five catches. 

Also consider this: The Cowboys could begin working with rookies Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton. 

Finally, the Cowboys have allowed five catches or more to seven of the 33 receivers faced. 

I’ll take a pass.

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