The Minnesota Vikings' Max Brosmer is replacing the injured JJ McCarthy at quarterback
The Seattle Seahawks' odds to win the Super Bowl continues to grow
Seattle’s defense ranks top-10 in Def DVOA and in Pass Rush Win Rate
Through the first 12 weeks of the season, the Seattle Seahawks have built a strong case for being one of the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl as they rank near the top of the board in most metrics on both sides of the ball. Heading into Sunday, expect the Seahawks to put together a dominant performance as they face off against the Minnesota Vikings Max Brosmer who is making his first start under center.
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| Best Vikings vs Seahawks SGP Picks | Odds | Claim Up to $1,500 in Bonuses at BetMGM |
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It has been a rough start to the year for the Minnesota Vikings as they are currently 4-7 while JJ McCarthy has struggled to give them the production they need to be competitive on offense. In his brief starts, McCarthy has been abysmal as he ranks dead last in Quarterback EPA per play and in Turnover Worthy Play Percentage.
While it will be tough for Max Brosmer to play worse than McCarthy in his first start with Minnesota, the Seattle Seahawks will do him no favors as he faces off against a defense who ranks top-10 in Def DVOA and in Pass Rush Win Rate. With Brosmer forced to scramble out of the pocket at a high rate, the quality of his throws will rapidly decline which lowers his chances of sustaining drives down the field.
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When Aaron Jones was out with an injury, Jordan Mason was able to capitalize on his higher usage rate as he ranks above league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. His offensive line played a major role in his success by consistently opening up high-quality running lanes for him to burst through as their front five ranks top-3 in Run Block Set Grade.
Unfortunately for Mason and the Vikings' ground game, they face off against a Seahawks front seven who excels at stuffing the run as their top-5 mark in Run Defense Line Yards indicates. With less room to work with in the trenches, expect Mason to struggle to reach the second level of their defense and be held under the total on his rushing yardage prop.
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Since the start of the regular season, Sam Darnold has steadily climbed up the NFL MVP odds, as he resides near the top of the board in Quarterback EPA per play while captaining an offense who ranks top-5 in Off DVOA. His efficiency has helped the Seahawks play at a very high level as he also leads the league in Big Time Throw Percentage.
In a favorable matchup against the Vikings, Darnold will have a great opportunity to build on his momentum as he faces off against a front seven who ranks 23rd in Pass Rush PFF Grade. With the Vikings struggling to collapse the pocket, the Seahawks' pass catchers will have more time to create space during their routes which will help improve the quality of Darnold’s passing lanes.
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AJ Barner has quietly been very productive for the Seahawks when inside the 20 as he currently ranks second on the team in Red Zone Targets while converting four of his six Receptions into touchdowns. With Jaxon Smith-Njigba pulling defensive attention away from him, expect Barner to continue to capitalize on the single coverage he receives and score his fifth receiving touchdown of the season.
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