Are the Bears Staying In Illinois? Kalshi Relocation Prediction Markets Say NO to Indiana

The Chicago Bears have been heavily linked to a home away from not only Soldier Field in the heart of the Windy City, but also Illinois in its entirety. As the team continues to grapple with an uncertain future, prediction markets have set the table for the Bears’ relocation and their next possible home.

• The Bears’ lease at Soldier Field doesn’t expire until 2033 

• The team has shown a strong interest in moving to Hammond, Indiana 

• Prediction contract prices are real-time reflections of customer sentiment

• Illinois regulators are scrambling to field an enticing proposal for the team

There’s no guarantee that the Bears will vacate their home at Soldier Field, where they have played home games since 1971. However, the team is actively exploring a move to a newer, larger, self-owned stadium that allows for year-round events.

Here’s a look at how the Kalshi user base sees the chances of the Bears relocating to several different rumored locations.

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Chicago Bears Relocation Prediction Market Analysis 

A huge change in the market occurred on the morning of March 19, although it’s unclear why, as no major relevant news was reported. Indiana had climbed to 50.3 percent likelihood, only to plummet to 25 percent just a few hours later.

A new location in Illinois has been the favored outcome since the beginning of March. The Indiana Legislature approved a bill that would authorize a “world-class” stadium, presumably for the Bears, back in February, although the allure of that quickly wore off for Kalshi users. 

While Iowa lawmakers have explored legislation to bring the Bears inside state lines, there was never any serious action or expectations of a move coming into fruition. 

A New Location in Illinois | 51% ($.63)

Illinois lawmakers recently met and have kept in contact with the Bears as they clamor to keep them inside state lines. A supposed “mega project” bill would help the team relocate to suburban Arlington Heights, which is located to the northwest of downtown Chicago. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, who is also regularly meeting with the Bears, said the state “[wants] to get it done for the Bears.”

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Indiana | 31% ($.40)

“Hammond [Indiana] is the site we are focused on,” are the words that a Bears spokesperson said in February after the state government created a stadium authority that would help pay for the construction of a new massive home for the team. The spokesperson also referred to the 40-year runway in Indiana as a better prospect than the one that existed in Illinois, even if Illinois was ahead in year one. Indiana is still seen as an underdog, although it is moving quickly to present the most agreeable circumstances for the legendary franchise.

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Do Not Relocate or Announce a Relocation | 6% ($.06)

The Bears have played at Soldier Field since 1971, aside from a temporary move to Champaign in 2002 during a period of renovation. However, the stadium only sits 61,500 and is outdated in many respects, which are two of the main reasons that the Bears are looking at finding a new home. All possible solutions have been rooted in finding a new location for the team, and staying or renovating Soldier Field does not look like a serious option.

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Chicago Bears New Stadium Home Prediction Market Sleeper 

Finding sleeper, or upset picks, often involves meticulous scouring of the market to find high-value options hidden in plain sight. However, there is only one other outcome that is available aside from the three mentioned above. 

Iowa | <1% ($.01)

Several Iowa lawmakers introduced legislation earlier this year to attempt to entice the Bears by promising tax incentives. The bill would work by extending the state’s Major Economic Growth Attraction, which is focused on adding large-scale developmental projects through more than $1 billion in investment. However, the distance from Chicago and other prolific urban markets make this move seem like less of a possibility.

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Why the Chicago Bears' Next Location Prediction Market Is Moving 

It seems that as time continues to pass, the Bears become increasingly likely to abdicate their home at Soldier Field.

Prediction markets for the Bears’ next home will be impacted by legislative updates in interested areas, especially with multiple locations in contention to house the team and its new stadium. Market volatility should be noticeable due to the importance of these updates, and since there is only one final decision to be made, unlike a playoff bracket that includes multiple rounds and games.

Remember that market prices are influenced by customer sentiment. Markets can still move without any major updates based on the current thoughts of Kalshi’s user base.

How Chicago Bears Prediction Markets Work 

Anyone who purchases a contract in a Bears relocation market is essentially buying a “Yes” or “No” prediction related to a possible outcome of the process.

For example, one confident user might buy a “Yes” contract for the Bears to end up in Illinois. Another user might not be sure where they will move, but feels strongly that they won’t stay at Soldier Field, so they would purchase a “No” contract for the Bears not to relocate.

There isn’t an official deadline for the Bears to finalize a decision. They have a lease at Soldier Field that runs through 2033, ensuring they don’t have to rush their decision.

In the same breath, there is local urgency in Illinois for lawmakers to offer favorable circumstances for the team. Waiting until May to submit another proposal is effectively off the table, and legislators want to ensure that they don’t lose the team and the revenue it produces to a neighboring state.

Prices for contracts are up-to-the-minute reflections of other Kalshi users. Every contract will pay $1 if the selected outcome ends up occurring, and every losing contract will pay $0. Final payouts are not affected by any changes in prices after a contract(s) is purchased. 

Customers can also pay to acquire more than one contract. If one user spends $10 on Indiana to be the next home of the Bears at $.25, they own 40 contracts in that market. They’d also win $40, or 4x their investment, if Indiana won the bidding war.  

Chicago Bears Relocation: Prediction Markets vs. Traditional Sportsbooks 

Legal sportsbooks are bound to offer markets directly related to the outcomes of sports events. While the Bears’ relocation involves a sports team, it does not hinge on a sanctioned event, such as an NFL game. Prediction markets, however, can offer markets for this type of event.

Prediction markets are similar to sportsbooks, although they have unique distinctions.

One of the biggest differences is how prices are created. Sportsbooks use house-made odds that include a vig (effectively a tax) and have a total implied probability greater than 100 percent. That distorts prices and ensures that sportsbooks are always at an advantage based on the Rule of Large Numbers.

The best prediction markets do not include fees in their market prices, which are updated based on customer influence. 

Any market with a probability greater than 50 percent is always the favorite at prediction platforms. In the event that no outcome has a probability greater than 50 percent, then the most likely outcome is the favorite. 

Prediction platforms do, however, have charges such as transaction fees.

Where to Trade Chicago Bears New Stadium Home Markets Legally

Prediction platforms that are licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency in charge of watching the prediction industry and its operators, are available in all 50 states. However, not all operators are available nationwide.

There are many platforms that offer CFTC-licensed markets. Here are a few of the top options.

• Kalshi: The most popular prediction platform is legal in all 50 states. However, its increasing popularity has made it the target of attacks from numerous state regulators, who have argued that its markets (largely involving sports events) should be classified as illegal forms of gambling.

• Crypto.com: This platform is legal in 41 states. The only exceptions are Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, and Ohio.

• OG.com: Owned and operated by Crypto.com, this web platform is available in 48 states. Customers in Arizona and New York are the only ones who are not able to trade contracts in its markets.

While certain states do not have as many options as others, there is at least one prediction outlet available for consumers in every state.