Who Will Win the Republican Nomination? 2028 US Presidential Election Prediction Markets Still Like Vance

With President Donald Trump set to exit the White House after his second term concludes, Kalshi prediction market users have lined up a list of candidates for the Republican nomination in the 2028 US Presidential Election.

Key Takeaways Republican Nomination 2028

• J.D. Vance ceded a considerable amount of ground to Marco Rubio

• Tucker Carlson, an independent right-wing news host, is third among all candidates

• Prediction markets may change significantly based on the war with Iran

• The Republican nominee likely won’t be announced until spring or summer in 2028

Current 2028 Republican Nomination Prediction Market Odds 

Which candidates are best positioned to make the 2028 Presidential ticket on behalf of the Republican Party? Here’s a look at prediction market prices at Kalshi as of March 16, 2026.

2028 Republican Nomination Prediction Market Analysis 

It comes as no surprise that the current Vice President J.D. Vance is the favorite to secure the Republican nomination, with a near-four-in-10 chance of earning the distinction. Acting National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also pulled away from the field with a 27 percent chance to go toe-to-toe with the Democratic nominee.

The one major shock is that Tucker Carlson – an independent right-wing political commentator and activist – is third in Kalshi users’ expected likelihood. 

He’s ahead of Trump’s namesake legacy, Trump (who wouldn’t be eligible for a third term without a Constitutional amendment) himself, prominent Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and other notable candidates. 

J.D. Vance | 38% ($.38)

Vance, who was only 40 when he was sworn in as Vice President of the United States, was long projected to represent the Republican Party in the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election. He served as a U.S. Senator from Ohio from 2023-25, before which he was a military journalist in the U.S. Marine Corps and graduated from Ohio State University and Yale University. He’s a strong proponent of immigration restrictions, reduced foreign intervention, conservative social issues, and pro-life policies. 

Place your prediction on J.D. Vance

Marco Rubio | 30% ($.30)

Rubio, 54, was a member of the Florida House of Representatives, the U.S. Senate, and is now the U.S. Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor. He heavily criticized President Trump during the 2016 Presidential Election, but he later endorsed him and grew to become one of Trump’s most trusted voices. He is known for his support of a strong military, promoting policies to help keep America ahead of China, corporate tax cuts, and conservative social views.

Place your prediction on Marco Rubio

Tucker Carlson | 5% ($.05)

Carlson, 56, is known for challenging the establishment as the host of his independent right-wing political news network. Although he’s still heavily in the “America First” movement, his shift toward populism and away from existing structures has made him more agreeable with younger voters. He’s critical of both immigration and U.S. foreign intervention and has dived into what would traditionally be considered “conspiracy theories.”

Place your prediction on Tucker Carlson

Republican Nomination Prediction Market Sleeper 

Lest we forget, President Trump once polled less than one percent and was an enormous underdog in the Republican party ahead of the 2016 U.S. Presidential election. Upsets happen all over the world, and politics are not exempt from that rule.

Securing the nomination could be an uphill battle without an endorsement from President Trump. However, that vote of confidence may never come if Trump himself remains steadfast in finding a way to become the second President to get back into the Oval Office for a third term.

Josh Hawley | 2% ($.02)

Hawley, a 46-year-old U.S. Senator from Missouri, is a supporter of right-wing populism who has fought against “elites” in politics and business. One of Trump's key allies, he believes in an “America first” approach and has lashed out at Democratic policies, although he also took more liberal stances on familial issues, such as expanding the child tax credit, raising the minimum wage, and regulating large corporations. His blend of focuses could help him appeal to more middle-ground voters without losing confidence from Trump-backers. 

Why the Republican Nomination Prediction Market is Moving 

There haven’t been many significant changes in the overall standings of the Republican nomination leaderboard. Vance continues to be the favorite, just as he has been since Trump took office, and Rubio has been second for a while. Carlson climbed above one percent back in November, and he steadily increased to his current position.

No, the biggest evolution hasn’t resulted in one candidate leapfrogging another. But it has resulted in one individual making up considerable ground on the leader.

Rubio was only given an 11 percent chance to secure the Republican nomination on New Year’s Day. He’s nearly three times more likely than he was at the start of the year, having risen to a 30 percent likelihood, only eight percentage points behind Vance.

Rubio’s rise is directly tied to the U.S.’s foreign policy. As Secretary of State and the acting National Security Advisor, his profile and responsibilities grew considerably once the war with Iran erupted.

Trump himself noted that Rubio had become a “popular” and “loved” member of his inner circle, sources told ABC News.

Additionally, the news outlet reported that sources claimed that Republican donors had discussed ways to increase Rubio’s political status ahead of the 2028 Presidential Election. 

Place Contract on Your Oppinon on Kalshi

How Republican Nomination Prediction Markets Work 

Prediction contracts are directly related to the outcome of an event, in this case, the Republican nomination, similar to other prediction market events.

Users can purchase “Yes” or “No” contracts for any individuals listed on Kalshi’s market. The contract will settle once the nominee is confirmed, and based on whether the purchased contract was correct or incorrect.

Nominees are typically revealed in the spring or summer before the election and officially nominated at the National Convention in late summer. However, there is no set date for when the contracts will settle. 

Prices for each contract are determined by real-time market dynamics from the customer base. Every winning contract will pay $1, no matter the price, and every losing contract will pay $0. The price at the time the contract settles is irrelevant.

For example, a user who purchases 10 contracts for $.05 for Tucker Carlson to secure the nomination will pay $.50 for the chance to win $10. 

Republican Nomination Prediction Markets vs. Traditional Sportsbooks 

Legal sportsbooks are not allowed to offer political betting markets, making prediction markets the solution to the need for political futures. 

Despite similarities, prediction platforms are different from sportsbooks. For starters, prices of contracts are based on supply and demand, whereas sportsbooks utilize house-made odds that contain a vig (or a tax to ensure the “house always wins”).

Sportsbooks’ vigs also distort the true probability of an outcome. +100 odds imply a 50 percent probability, but sportsbooks typically set their odds at -110 on each side for balanced two-outcome markets, equaling about 104.8 total possible implied probability (52.4 percent each side). 

Prediction markets have charges such as transaction fees, but they don’t include a vig in their contract prices. 

Any market with a probability greater than 50 percent is always the favorite at prediction platforms. The outcome with the highest probability in the event that none are above 50 percent is considered the favorite. 

Where to Trade Republican Nomination Markets Legally 

Prediction platforms available for American customers must be licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This regulation ensures that markets are compliant with general guidelines and that consumers are afforded a variety of protections.

There are many prediction platforms that offer markets in sports, entertainment, politics, and the financial industry. Here are a few of the top prediction market operators.

• Kalshi: The most prominent prediction outlet in America, Kalshi is legal in all 50 states. However, it has also dealt with the most scrutiny and pushback, largely related to its sports event contracts that state regulators insist are a form of unregulated sports betting.

• Crypto.com: Legal in all 41 states, the only users who will miss out on this outlet are those in Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, and Ohio.

• OG.com: Owned and operated by crypto.com, this platform is legal in 48 states. Customers in Arizona and New York are the only ones who will not be able to access these markets.

The bottom line is that customers in every state will have at least one, if not multiple, operators available to them.