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Over 0.5 tie-breaks in Nick Kyrgios vs Marcos Giron at +120 at bet365
Yoshihito Nishioka to win a set vs Jenson Brooksby at +100 at bet365
Ilya Ivashka to beat Sebastian Korda at +100 at Caesars Sportsbook (and others)
Cameron Norrie to win ATP Los Cabos at +700 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Nicolas Jarry landed this column a profit last week with his ability to force a tie-break and seven days on we’re turning to Nick Kyrgios in the same market.
The Wimbledon runner-up played a breaker in 11 of his 15 matches during the recent grasscourt season and while they’ve now moved on hardcourts in Washington, the Sportmaster surface plays fairly fast in hot conditions so we can expect a few more this week.
Looking solely at hardcourts, Kyrgios has played a tie-break in three of his last five such matches, while it’s three of his last six in Washington.
Giron’s figures aren’t bad either with five of his last eight having had a set go the distance, including during last week’s narrow loss in Atlanta.
Yes, the level of opposition is pretty high here but the American has played tie-breaks against Stefanos Tsitsipas, Taylor Fritz, Pablo Carreno Busta and Jenson Brooksby this season so I’m more than happy to back him to be involved in another one here at +120.
At time of writing, Brooksby is yet to play the final of the Atlanta Open but his involvement in such a match on Sunday is important when looking at this contest.
Due to the 48-player field, this first-round match can be scheduled no later than Tuesday and that will give Brooksby little time to adjust to different conditions. At best, he’ll arrive in Washington late on Sunday night.
The heat and humidity in both Atlanta and Washington are hardly ideal for quick turnarounds and there’s every chance Brooksby is feeling a little jaded when he takes to the court for this one after five matches in six days last week.
Nishioka is already bedded in on the hardcourts having played two such Challengers since Wimbledon and it’s a surface he enjoys.
He beat Taylor Fritz en route to the Acapulco quarter-finals earlier this season and also defeated Dan Evans in Miami.
Perhaps most importantly, he was a 6-3 6-4 victor against Brooksby when they met at the Colombus Challenger in January, an event Nishioka went on to win.
He’s a considerable outsider here and while it could be worth chancing him to win, the better bet looks to be to back him to win a set at +100.
I’m a little surprised to see Ivashka as the outsider for this one.
Korda is still finding his way back after injury – a foot problem, coupled with shin splints, forced him to miss Wimbledon and when he returned to action in Atlanta last week he suffered a disappointing loss to Taro Daniel.
Hi all. Sadly I had to withdraw from Wimbledon today after my match in Eastbourne. I have been dealing with terrible shin splints and beaten up feet for quite some time now and can’t go on with it anymore. I have been advised to rest and recuperate is the best way forward. https://t.co/JtWI3pveLx
— Sebastian Korda (@SebiKorda) June 20, 2022
Ivashka is a better opponent and he arrives off the back of a semi-final run in Atlanta.
Admittedly, those humid conditions I mentioned above may have drained Ivashka somewhat but on the flip side, he’s very much played himself into the hardcourt season already and that’s not something you can say about Korda, who has now lost six of his last nine matches.
I reckon it may be a few more weeks before we see the best of Korda and backing Ivashka at this price looks worthwhile.
Hubert Hurkacz returns to action for the first time since Wimbledon at this week’s Citi Open in Washington and it could be an awkward opening match for the Pole, who may still be carrying the disappointment of a first-round loss at the London Grand Slam tournament.
After victory in Halle, he was among the favorites but lost to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Both potential opponents like the speedy hardcourt conditions they will find in DC.
Emil Ruusuvuori was runner-up in Pune and a semi-finalist in Melbourne earlier this season, while Mackenzie McDonald was the beaten finalist at this very tournament 12 months ago.
Both will look to take the game to Hurkacz, who will be vulnerable if he is unable to immediately find something close to his best.
Another seed who could be worth opposing first up is Reilly Opelka.
He withdrew from Atlanta last week due to a hip injury and if his movement is hindered, he could be in trouble.
He’ll face either Denis Kudla or a qualifier and the former has a good record in Washington having made the quarter-finals at two of the last three stagings.
He’s beaten Opelka before, albeit also losing twice, and after a decent grasscourt season he’s heading back to his favorite surface.
I’m turning my attention to the Los Cabos tournament for my best futures wager this week.
Cameron Norrie loves playing in Mexico on the fairly slow Solflex courts – he won here 12 months ago and earlier this season made the final in Acapulco – and will be full of confidence after his run to the last four at Wimbledon.
The surface works to his advantage with his piercing groundstrokes able to penetrate opponents’ defences.
World number one Daniil Medvedev is in attendance but at -200 he looks poor value.
He’s not played in almost seven weeks and hasn’t won a title in 11 months – the 2021 US Open being his last success.
While he should ease through to the latter stages, whether he’ll be able to provide the answers once he is tested – possibly by Norrie in the final – is open to question.
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|What||ATP Citi Open; ATP Abierto de Tenis Mifel|
|Location||Washington, DC, USA; Los Cabos, Mexico|
|Time||Monday August 1 to Sunday August 7|
|How to Watch||Tennis Channel|
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Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.More info on Andy Schooler
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