ATP Winston-Salem Predictions, Betting Odds, Picks
- Musetti can cruise past Coria
- Popyrin the wrong favorite vs Johnson
- Murray overpriced for Tiafoe win
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ATP Winston-Salem Picks
Lorenzo Musetti to beat Federico Coria 2-0 at +100 at Caesars Sportsbook and bet365
Steve Johnson to win ATP Winston-Salem at +4000 at BetMGM
How to Watch ATP Winston-Salem
|ATP Winston-Salem Information|
|What||ATP Winston-Salem Open|
|Location||Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA|
|Time||Sunday, August 22 to Saturday, August 28|
|How to Watch||Tennis Channel|
Federico Coria vs Lorenzo Musetti
Both of these men prefer the clay but I’ve little doubt whose game is better suited to these faster hardcourts in Winston-Salem.
Coria is just 2-7 in his career at tour-level on hard – and one of the wins came via an opponent’s retirement.
Musetti won more matches than that in Acapulco earlier this season when he took out two top-20 players – Diego Schwartzman and Grigor Dimitrov – en route to the semi-finals. The Italian also won two rounds in Miami.
He’s a man who likes to go for his shots and I see his more aggressive approach winning the day here.
Coria has a lost a lot of matches heavily this season – 10 of his 14 defeats have come in straight sets – so I’m more than happy to side with the favorite to win this 2-0 at +100.
Steve Johnson vs Alexei Popyrin
These two met only a few weeks ago in Atlanta in conditions pretty similar to those expected in Winston-Salem.
On that occasion, Johnson emerged a 7-6 6-3 winner, his serve holding sway as he lost only six points behind it in the entire match.
He’s been a good form on the North American hardcourts, backing up that result with a run to the quarter-finals in Washington where it took eventual champion, Jannik Sinner, to halt his progress.
Johnson also has a strong record at this tournament, making the final in 2018, so I’m struggling to see why he’s the outsider here.
Popyrin came through qualifying so does have a couple of matches here under his belt but his final-round win over lowly-ranked Yosuke Watanuki did see him lose a set.
In short, Johnson looks a good wager at +100 here.
Frances Tiafoe vs Andy Murray
There have been some good signs from Murray over the past week or so.
He beat Richard Gasquet in Cincinnati before testing one of the world’s best in Hubert Hurkacz – he held set points in the first set before losing 7-6 6-3.
The Briton ended the week in a positive mood, saying he’d played “much better than I did during Wimbledon”, and he’s since backed that up by crushing late stand-in Noah Rubin in the first round here, impressively losing only two games.
The level of opposition certainly rises for his next match on Tuesday and Tiafoe did beat Denis Shapovalov in Cincy last week.
However, his level can be very up and down and I do like the fact Murray has won their only previous encounter. It was a post-hip surgery win too – Murray winning in New York last year, just after the end of tennis’ lockdown.
I’m a bit surprised to see Murray as big as +125 here and while not totally convinced he’ll complete the job, I do think there’s value in that price.
Round Two Upsets?
Winston-Salem is another tournament in which the seeds all get first-round byes so it’s worth a quick look at which of the big names might be vulnerable in their opening match.
Second seed David Goffin played his first match is two months last week in Cincinnati and it didn’t go well. A 6-3 6-3 defeat to Guido Pella was very much the slow start the Belgian must have feared.
He’ll face Thiago Monteiro first here with the Brazilian likely to be a big price.
Monteiro served well in fast conditions in Australia earlier this season and if he can reproduce that form, he could land the upset.
What is off-putting though is their previous meeting – Goffin was a comfortable straight-sets winner when they met on indoor hard, although that was in 2016.
Marin Cilic is another player you can never really trust and he could be susceptible should he face Ilya Ivashka first.
Ivashka has been in decent nick of late, reaching the last 16 at Wimbledon and beating top-20 star Grigor Dimitrov in Washington.
He should relish the slick conditions and could spring an upset at a decent price.
Best Outright Pick
The aforementioned Steve Johnson holds good claims at big odds this week.
As well as his run to 2018 final, the American reached the semis the last time this tournament was played in 2019. He also made the last four in 2015.
He’s played his best tennis of the season of 2021 during the North American hardcourt swing with the highlight being his run the quarter-finals in Washington where he beat Alex de Minaur before losing to eventual champ Jannik Sinner.
Johnson also has the distinction of having won an ATP title in the week before a Grand Slam, something which is certainly worth noting.
Anyone with serious ambitions at next week’s US Open will be wary of pushing themselves too hard in what are likely to be testing conditions so the likes of top seed and title favorite Pablo Carreno Busta can be easily overlooked.
I’m pretty sure Johnson will see this as a big opportunity and following a decent draw, he looks worth a shot at +4000.
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Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.