UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez - Odds, Predictions & Picks

• Former UFC Middleweight champion Sean Strickland looks to halt a rough patch against surging contender Anthony Hernandez.

• Featherweights Dan Ige and Melquizael Costa lock horns in a matchup loaded with potential.

• Heavyweights Serghei Spivac and Ante Delija face off in a bout that could cause a stir in the 265lb division.

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez

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UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez - Picks & Predictions

Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez - Middleweight Division

• Our pick: Anthony Hernandez (-310) at FanDuel

Geoff Neal vs. Uroš Medić - Welterweight Division

• Our pick: Geoff Neal (-196) at FanDuel

Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa - Featherweight Division

• Our pick: Melquizael Costa (-230) at FanDuel

Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija - Heavyweight Division

• Our pick: Ante Delija (-158) at FanDuel 

Zachary Reese vs. Michel Pereira - Middleweight Division

• Our pick: Michel Pereira (-156) at FanDuel

Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez - Middleweight Division

The headline bout places former UFC Middleweight champion Sean Strickland (ranked third) opposite one of the division’s most in-form operators in Anthony Hernandez (ranked fourth). Strickland’s run since dethroning Israel Adesanya has been turbulent, with two high-stakes defeats in championship bouts nudging him back into contender territory. Still, few fighters at 185lbs possess his volume striking, cardio and determination to march forward behind a tight jab for five full rounds. He remains a nightmare to outwork over distance and is rarely blown out of fights, even when facing elite opposition.

By contrast, Hernandez enters with a genuine skyward trajectory. With eight victories under his belt, “Fluffy” has quietly pieced together one of the division’s longest active win streaks, with his last defeat coming all the way back in May 2020. Victories over ranked duo Roman Dolidze and Brendan Allen the last twice show that he’s a genuinely versatile threat and it will be interesting to see how he handles this latest challenge.

His ability to scramble, chain wrestle and maintain top pressure has broken the rhythm of several accomplished strikers, and that skillset is tailor-made to test Strickland’s defensive wrestling.

This matchup feels like a classic veteran versus surging contender narrative. If Strickland can keep a hold on range and keep the fight upright, his output could bank the rounds he needs to win. However, given Hernandez’s recent form, finishing instincts and versatility, his route to victory seems more open-ended. Momentum leans toward Hernandez, who looks the smarter choice at -310 with FanDuel.

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Geoff Neal vs. Uroš Medić - Welterweight Division

Next up is an intriguing Welterweight bout, which sees 12th-ranked veteran Geoff Neal duke it out with an opponent in Uroš Medić who really seems to be coming into his own. 

Neal is a veteran figure in the promotion, with 13 fights under his belt, though he arrives here trying to snap a worrying sequence, having lost three of his last four bouts. Neal was on the end of a brutal finish against fifth-ranked Carlos Prates last time out, being knocked out at the end of the first round by a spinning back elbow. That fight came in August, so he’s had plenty of time to recover and Medić is a significant drop in class for the American, who has held his own against a lot of solid figures in this decision.

Meanwhile, Medić arrives here having won three of his last four, with all of those victories coming by knockout or technical knockout. A former Lightweight, Medić has only had a handful of fights at this weight and this is undoubtedly a big step up in class. Both men are strong strikers, but it’s worth noting that Medić has yet to go the distance in his career, meaning it may be worth siding with Neal at -195 to bide his time and strike later in the fight.  

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Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa - Featherweight Division

This Featherweight pairing pits long-time division stalwart Dan Ige against Brazilian finisher Melquizael Costa in what shapes as a crossroads fight for both men. Ige has shared the Octagon with some of the biggest names in the division and rarely delivers a dull performance, but with only two wins in his last three fights, his recent bouts have shown inconsistency. While he remains durable and technically sound with devastating boxing combinations, unanimous decision losses against ranked contenders have slowed his climb back toward the top 15.

Costa arrives in noticeably sharper form. The Brazilian has strung together five stoppages across the previous calendar year, showcasing improved head-kick setups and a far more measured striking approach. His reach and height advantage at featherweight allow him to operate comfortably at range, and he’s become increasingly effective at mixing body work with sudden bursts of aggression that catch opponents mid-exchange. Coming into this fight, his confidence appears to be peaking.

Experience and grit always keep Ige competitive, particularly in three-round battles where his pace rarely dips. Costa’s finishing is hard to fault. Considering his recent knockout streak and physical advantage, he’s hands down the more dangerous fighter in open space. Provided he avoids getting drawn into a boxing-led dogfight, Costa’s upward course suggests he edges this one, making -230 with FanDuel a safe choice.

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Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija - Heavyweight Division

Heavyweight bouts often boil down to who lands first, but this match up between Serghei Spivac and Ante Delija carries a little more tactical expertise than most. Spivac has carved himself a reputation as a grinding grappler, excelling at neutralising opponents against the cage before dragging them to the mat.

Several of his victories have come through methodical top control and positional dominance rather than highlight-reel knockouts, making him a tough nut to crack for strikers who prefer open exchanges. However, with two losses on the bounce, the “Polar Bear” will have a lot to prove moving into the weekend.

Delija’s profile is one of contrast. The Croatian veteran brings a heavier set of hands, a broader kickboxing base, and greater finishing diversity when rooted. His experience outside the UFC forged a composed, battle-tested mindset, and since transitioning into the promotion he has looked increasingly comfortable under the top lights. While still prone to the occasional takedown, his balance and ability to fire back to a standing position have improved, giving him more solutions against wrestle-heavy game plans than earlier in his career.

The outcome of this fight lies heavily on proposed geography inside the cage. Extended grappling sequences will favour Spivac, but drawn out striking exchanges tilts the scale towards Delija, whose raw power and combination punching carry more immediacy in seeing things off. Given his broader finishing avenues and evolving takedown defence, Delija holds slight appeal as the more complete option at -158 with FanDuel.

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Zachary Reese vs. Michel Pereira - Middleweight Division

This middleweight showdown pits striker against striker, drawing on the long, disciplined attack of former light-heavyweight Zachary Reese against the wild, unorthodox style of Michel Pereira. Reese has banked most of his wins thanks to his ability to utilise reach into ruthless submissions and devastating knockouts.

When he establishes his jab early, he becomes difficult to close down, and his readiness to mix in clinch control has rounded out his offensive toolkit in recent outings. With four wins in seven since joining the promotion, he’s shown he means business and intends to show his worth.

Meanwhile, Pereira has kept his title as one of the UFC’s most entertaining wildcards. Known for spinning attacks, flying knees, and experimental acrobatics, he also possesses a completely overlooked grappling game and shockingly strong output in scrambles. Although his recent outings have shown a drop in consistency, suffering three defeats in a row, he has consistently competed against a higher calibre of opposition. That experience often shows in chaotic moments where others might freeze.

The key question is whether Reese can keep this contest on steady shoulders and remain methodical. If he keeps a sizable range and avoids Pereira’s bursts of volatility, he can bank rounds with cleaner fundamentals. However, Pereira’s explosiveness and know-how will always be a tough hurdle to clear. Given his experience and capacity to turn fights instantly, Pereira edges the appeal at -156 with FanDuel.

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How to Watch UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez

• Location: Toyota Center, Houston, United States

• When: Sunday, February 22

• Time: 08:00 PM ET

• How: ESPN