Best MLB Home Run Props Today: Matt Olson Faces a Friendly Foe Tonight

Matt Olson has been fantastic in May, thanks to the resurgence of his power stroke. We view him as the safest home run prop of the day due to Lucas Giolito being on the mound, against whom the first baseman has four home runs in 13 at-bats. We’ll share more on why we are locking this prop bet in, as well as two others we live.

The odds we use for our home run bets are taken from Caesars Sportsbook. If you’d like to try Caesars, use promo code WSNDYW to claim a “Bet $1, Get Ten 100% Profit Boost Tokens” offer.

Home Run Picks for Friday, May 30

Miguel Vargas Anytime Home Run (+450) at Caesars Sportsbook

For those who may not know this 25-year-old, Miguel Vargas (.245 BA, 8 HR, 26 RBI) is a promising young infielder for the Chicago White Sox. He has been on a tear over his last five games, posting a .364 average with two home runs. While he isn’t known for his power, we love his chances to keep that momentum going tonight against Zach Eflin (3-2, 5.40 ERA, 1.17 WHIP).

Eflin hit the IL with an injury late in mid-April, keeping him out for just over a month. It seems the 31-year-old may not have shaken the injury, as he has been awful over his last two starts, allowing 12 runs over 10 ⅓ innings. The reason for the big run totals was Eflin allowing seven home runs.

The White Sox are bad, but they have been hot lately. Look for Eflin to struggle again, giving Vargas some great chances to go deep.

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Matt Olson Anytime Home Run (+275) at Caesars Sportsbook

Matt Olson snapped out of a four-game slump with multiple hits across yesterday’s doubleheader. The slugger has found his power stroke in May after a quiet April, tallying eight home runs coming into tonight. Five of those have come over his last 10 games, and we expect him to add to that total tonight.

Olson will be facing veteran Lucas Giolito (1-1, 5.27 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). The former All-Star has struggled badly since being away from the White Sox in 2023. While he is capable of delivering some gems, he is more often hammered early and often. We’ve seen that in May, with Giolito shutting the Orioles out over seven innings last week but allowing six runs in two of his other three starts.

Matt Olson has faced Giolito 13 times and has dominated the matchup, with a .538 average and four home runs.

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Aaron Judge Anytime Home Run (+150) at Caesars Sportsbook

It feels lazy to have Aaron Judge on here, but we expect him to have a monster night in LA. One reason for that is his impressive history against LA in 11 at-bats last season, the slugger had a .636 average with three home runs. While he didn’t face tonight’s starter, Tony Gonsolin (2-1, 4.68 ERA, 1.44), he has hit a home run in two at-bats against him.

Speaking of Gonsolin, he has been struggling to find his spots this season. After a solid first three starts, he has allowed eight runs, 11 hits, and eight walks over his last two (9 innings). You can’t afford to make the kind of mistakes he’s been making against Aaron Judge. Expect him to send at least one over the wall tonight against Gonsolin and a hampered Dodgers’ bullpen.

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