For home runs props, it’s usually a good idea to target the obvious candidates. But sometimes you have to take a deeper look and find less obvious targets. Naturally, it’s good to have a combination of those two things, which is what we have on Wednesday.
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Over his last three games, Judge is 4 for 8 with two home runs and a double. Even in a small sample, those are the numbers of a player who’s seeing the ball well right now. That’s going to set up Judge to unleash his power.
It helps that the Blue Jays are sending Jose Berrios to the mound on Wednesday. Judge is 14 for 37 (.378) with five home runs in his career against Berrios. Plus, Berrios has been home run-prone this season, already giving up 12 homers during the first half of the season. All of those factors point to Judge being able to go deep on Wednesday.
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If the wind is blowing the right way at Wrigley Field Wednesday night, Tucker and the Cubs have a chance to do some damage against Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee. With 15 homers allowed this year, Bibee is among the league leaders in that category. Also, 12 of those 15 have come on the road, so he’ll be vulnerable at Wrigley Field. Also, most of those home runs have come against left-handed hitters.
For the record, Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong both have more homers than Tucker this year. But those two have cooled off over the past week, while Tucker is going strong right now. Tucker is 4 for 13 with two doubles and a home run over his last three games, making him the best candidate of Chicago’s left-handed power hitters to take advantage of Bibee’s issues in that area.
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The Astros are playing at Coors Field on Wednesday, so they could do some damage. Colorado’s Austin Gomber has only made three starts this year, including one at Coors Field in which he gave up three home runs in less than five innings. He’s a prime candidate to have a rough night against the Astros, who have won seven of their last eight games.
Parades is our top choice among Houston’s hitters. He’s 4 for 7 with a home run in his career against Gomber. His 17 home runs this season have also been a little overlooked. Despite going hitless on Tuesday, Parades was red-hot coming into this series, so he’s a good candidate to get going again and take advantage of Gomber and Denver’s thin air.
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Make sure you target Schwarber in Game 2 of Philadelphia’s doubleheader with the Padres. That’s the game that Dylan Cease is starting for San Diego. Schwarber is 3 for 7 with two home runs in his career against Cease, so he’ll be looking forward to the second game.
Cease isn’t having a great year with his 4.53 ERA. He’s allowed 10 homers this season, including two in his last start. In a hitter-friendly ballpark like Citizens Bank Park, Cease could easily get himself into trouble, especially against a hitter like Schwarber, who has given him a lot of problems in the past.
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