If you’re looking for home run props, one thing to keep in mind is that the Rays are playing in a minor league stadium this season. It has the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, which means it’s friendly to home run hitters. That inspired us to target the Orioles-Rays game today, although we mixed in a couple of other picks as well.
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Buxton returned from the break in a big way on Friday, going 3 for 5 with a home run. He owes some of that success to Coors Field and Colorado’s pitching staff. Since he’s back in Colorado with another favorable pitching matchup on Saturday, there’s every reason to target him to homer for a second straight game. Buxton has hit home runs in consecutive games on three separate occasions this year, so he’s capable of it.
Antonio Senzatela will start for the Rockies. Buxton has previously homered against him in just three career at-bats. He’s also allowed 16 homers this year, including four over his last three starts. Senzatela is a prime target, so all of Minnesota’s power hitters are a good option for a home run prop, especially Buxton.
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We’re not forgetting about Aaron Judge, but Stanton has also become a daily threat to go deep. He’s hit three home runs in his last six games, proving that his power isn’t an issue after missing the first part of the season with elbow problems. When he gets hold of one, no ballpark can hold him.
It doesn’t hurt that one of Stanton’s two previous at-bats against Atlanta’s Joey Wentz was a home run. Wentz has given up five home runs in 37 innings this year, pitching for three different teams. He could be so concerned with Judge that he forgets to be careful with Stanton.
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Henderson didn’t hit a homer on Friday, but he opened the second half by going 2 for 4 with two extra-base hits. That’s a sign that his power surge from before the break will continue. Keep in mind that the Orioles are playing in a minor-league park, so home runs should come a little easier for a hitter like Henderson.
The kicker is that Henderson and the Orioles are facing Zack Littell, who leads the majors in home runs allowed. Henderson is also 7 for 21 with two home runs in his career against Littell. This is a favorable matchup in a favorable setting, so we’ll take our chances with Henderson.
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Caminero can also benefit from Tampa’s minor league home. He has 25 home runs this season, and 16 of them have come at home. In fact, his home-road splits are incredible, as he mashes at Tampa’s temporary home stadium. Caminero hit two home runs on Friday, so he’s feeling good about himself.
Obviously, we hope we’re not a day late with Caminero. But keep in mind that he’s 3 for 4 in his career against Baltimore's Dean Kremer. That should help him stay hot and hit another home run. Of the 14 home runs Kremer has allowed this year, nine have come on the road. He also has a 5.83 ERA away from Camden Yards this season, making him particularly vulnerable in Tampa’s smaller park.
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