Sometimes home run props are about the hitter, and sometimes they are about the pitcher. That is apparent on Tuesday, as top power hitters and homer-prone pitchers both influenced our targets for Tuesday. Granted, there is no sign of the elite home run hitters. But vulnerable pitching should give our targets a great chance to go deep.
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Stanton was hot before the All-Star break and has kept it going since the break. He’s 6 for 12 over his last four games, including a home run on Monday. That puts him in the type of groove that can lead to more home runs.
He also has a history of going deep against Max Scherzer, who starts for the Blue Jays on Tuesday. Stanton is 7 for 27 with four home runs against Scherzer, so more than half of his against Scherzer have gone over the wall. Scherzer has long been homer-prone, giving up five home runs in just 23 innings this season, so given Stanton’s history against him, he’ll be vulnerable on Tuesday.
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His .233 average aside, Ward has 23 home runs this year, making him the type of player to target for home run props. He’s also been red-hot since the break, going 7 for 17 with two home runs and four doubles. Nearly every hit Ward has had since the break has gone for extra bases, showcasing his power.
Matching up with Frankie Montas on Tuesday is also favorable for Ward. He’s 4 for 12 with a triple and a home run in his career against Montas, again, showing plenty of power. Plus, Montas has allowed four homers in less than 20 innings of work this season, so a power hitter like Ward has a chance to hurt him.
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Arizona starter Eduardo Rodriguez has had a disastrous July. In just 8.1 innings, he’s allowed five home runs. Perhaps he used the All-Star break to figure things out, but this is still a good time to fade a pitcher who has conceded 16 total home runs this year in just 80.1 innings.
With two previous home runs against Rodriguez, Altuve is the right member of the Astros to target. Keep in mind that 12 of Rodriguez’s 16 home runs have been hit by right-handed hitters. Altuve is also 5 for 13 with three doubles over his last three games, so he’s trending toward hitting his 18th home run of the season, which could come against Rodriguez on Tuesday.
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Contreras had three hits, including a home run at Coors Field on Monday. Why not bet on him continuing to take advantage of Denver’s thin air on Tuesday? Contreras also leads the Cardinals in home runs, so he’s the best option on the St. Louis roster to go deep.
Colorado starter Bradley Blalock is also the ideal victim. The 24-year-old has a 9.97 ERA this season, in part because he’s allowed six home runs in just 21.2 innings. A veteran hitter like Contreras should be able to take advantage of those struggles and homer at Coors Field for the second straight day.
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