Best MLB Home Run Props Today: Carlos Santana Welcomes a Familiar Face to Town

Guardians’ slugger Carlos Santana is struggling to get on base, but remains a dangerous power threat. We love his chances to add another home run to his total against the Orioles as he faces 41-year-old Charlie Morton. He’s hit the starter hard in the past, and we think his cold bat will heat up against the familiar foe tonight.

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We’ll be using odds from Caesars Sportsbook for all of our home run props. If you’d like to give Caesars a try, use promo code WSNDYW to claim a “Bet $1, Double Your Winnings” offer.

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Home Run Picks for Thursday, July 24

Carlos Santana Anytime Home Run (+400) at Caesars Sportsbook

As bad as Carlos Santana has been at the plate this season, his 11 home runs show his power remains. We love him to go deep tonight due to Charlie Morton (5-8, 5.58 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) taking the mound for Baltimore. The two veterans have met 14 times, with Santana posting a 1.329 OPS and two home runs. 

Morton isn’t the pitcher he once was, which has been especially apparent when on the road. He’s 2-5 with a 6.81 ERA and .297 OBA away from Baltimore this season. Combine that with the fact that he’s coming off a start where he allowed seven runs (2 HR) over 5 ⅓ innings, and you can see why we are willing to take this longshot home run prop bet.

Once Morton exits, he’ll turn things over to a Baltimore bullpen that owns the sixth-highest ERA (4.83) and allowed the fourth-most home runs (54).

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Manny Machado Anytime Home Run (+350) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Padres star has a disappointing .231 average in July, but it hasn’t stopped him from hitting five home runs. The 33-year-old star has 18 long balls on the season, putting him on pace to hit 28+ for the fifth consecutive season. That makes him a fairly popular option for home run props, but we especially love his chances to go deep tonight. 

St. Louis starter Sonny Gray (9-4, 4.04 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) hasn’t had a good July, going 1-2 with a 7.64 ERA. His last start was his worst of the season, allowing the D-backs to score nine runs (8 earned) and hit two home runs over 3 ⅓ innings. 

Don’t expect Gray to bounce back tonight against Machado. The Padres' third baseman has faced the pitcher 32 times and posted a .344 average with two home runs. 

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Jose Altuve Anytime Home Run (+400) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Astros were expected to finally cede control of the AL West this season after losing several key hitters over the offseason. One reason they instead sit atop the division today is Jose Altuve. The former MVP has stepped up to 17 home runs and a team-high 53 RBI, and he seems to be getting better heading into the final two months of the season.

In July alone, Altuve owns a .373 average with four home runs and 17 RBIs. With a ridiculous .436 OBP, it's clear the 35-year-old is feeling himself at the plate.

Altuve will be facing Luis Severino (3-11, 5.10 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) tonight. The veteran has been awful in his first season with the A’s, going 2-8 with a 6.15 ERA since May 1. His poor play has led to numerous short starts, with Severino lasting 6+ innings just once over his previous nine starts.

Altuve has just one home run against Severino in 40+ at-bats, but has hit him well throughout his career. With his bat remaining hot, we expect him to take the former Yankee deep tonight.

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