Some days, you have to dig deep to find home run props, but other days, you stick with the obvious targets. That’s what we did on Tuesday, as three of the top seven home run hitters on the season are among our targets for home run props. This is just one of those days when it’s best not to overthink things.
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Ohtani is still looking for his first home run in August, and after eight games without a homer, his time has come. He’s 6 for 15 (.400) with a double through the first four games of August, so the hits are there. Ohtani’s next home run is coming, especially against Miles Mikolas, as Ohtani is 4 for 8 in his career against Mikolas.
Keep in mind that Mikolas had a game last month in which he allowed six home runs. That was also part of a stretch for him in which he gave up a homer in six consecutive starts. Also, 12 of the 18 homers Mikolas has allowed this year have come on the road, contributing to a 6.00 ERA in road starts, which makes us think Ohtani has a chance to take Mikolas deep.
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Schwarber was 3 for 5 with two home runs on Monday night, giving him three home runs in his last eight at-bats. He now has 40 home runs this season, which is second in the big leagues, behind only Cal Raleigh. More importantly, Schwarber is so hot right now that it’s foolish not to take a chance on him.
In his career, Schwarber has only faced Baltimore starter Dean Kremer one time. But Kremer has also given up three homers across his last two starts. He’s also been a disaster on the road, posting a 5.37 ERA away from Camden Yards. Facing a red-hot Schwarber at Citizens Bank Park is a recipe for Kremer giving up a home run or two.
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Goodman has quietly hit 21 home runs this season for the Rockies. Surprisingly, he’s done more damage on the road than at Coors Field. However, Goodman has hit two home runs in the last three games he’s played, both of which came at home.
The other reason we’re targeting Goodman is that the Rockies are facing Jose Berrios. While Goodman has never faced Berrios before, keep in mind that Berrios has given up 19 homers this year, making him one of the most homer-prone pitchers in baseball. Berrios has allowed six homers in his last 19 innings, so a trip to Coors Field is not what he needs right now.
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With 26 home runs allowed, Zack Littell leads the league in that department. He’ll make his debut with the Reds on Tuesday, doing so against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. A majority of the home runs he’s allowed have come on the road, making him vulnerable against the Cubs.
Granted, the Cubs have several great home run candidates. Despite having 27 homers this season, Crow-Armstrong hasn’t gone deep since July 23. However, he’s due to break out of that drought sooner or later, and facing Littell is the perfect opportunity for that to happen.
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