Best MLB Home Run Props Today: Can Kyle Tucker Finally Catch Fire?

The Cubs have gone from being one of the best teams in baseball to free-falling down the NL standings. An offensive slump from Kyle Tucker is one reason why, but the slugger has been making better contact of late. Below, we’ll share why we like his chance to go deep tonight, along with two other home run prop bets we love.

For more daily MLB coverage, check our selection of the Best NRFI Bets Today.

We’ll be using odds taken from Caesars Sportsbook. Sign up for a Caesars account with our promo code WSNDYW to claim a “Bet $1, Double Your Winnings” offer.

If you're located in a state where sports betting isn't legal, try playing at some of the best Social Sportsbooks. Check out our curated selection below.

Home Run Picks for Saturday, August 16

Kyle Tucker Anytime Home Run (+305) at Caesars Sportsbook

Kyle Tucker’s extended offensive slump is a big reason why the Cubs are now in a distant second in the NL Central. However, the slugger’s bat hasn’t been as bad as the numbers may show. He is hitting a ton of balls very hard, but has gotten rotten luck. Incredible catches, liners direct to fielders, and other incidents have led him to generate outs, but we think he snaps out of it tonight.

One other reason we are taking Tucker to hit his 19th home run tonight is Pirates starter Mike Burrows (1-4, 4.66 ERA, 1.26 WHIP). The 25-year-old seemed to be breaking out in June and July but is 0-1 with a 9.31 over his first two starts of August. He has allowed four home runs in those 9 ⅔ innings, and we expect to see him add another against Tucker.

Even if Burrows manages to navigate the dangerous Chicago lineup, he’ll turn things over to one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

Tucker has posted two hits in three at-bats against Burrows.

Use code WSNDYW and Double Your Winnings at Caesars

Trevor Story Anytime Home Run (+350) at Caesars Sportsbook

Trevor Story has been getting better in each of the previous three months. He has a .304 average in August with a .385 OBP, showing that he is finding ways to produce for the Red Sox. While he has just one home run this month, he has posted 18 this season, and at least five in three of the last four months.

Story isn’t known for his slugging, but he will have a great chance to flash some power with Cal Quantrill (4-9, 5.09 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) on the mound for Miami. The 30-year-old was decent and solid in his last outing, but lasted just four innings and allowed one home run. Before that, he allowed seven runs and two long balls over 4 ⅓ innings.

Story owns a .357 career average against Quantrill and has one home run over 14 at-bats.

Bet $1 at Caesars and Get Ten 100% Profit Boost Tokens

Jose Ramirez Anytime Home Run (+305) at Caesars Sportsbook

Jose Ramirez is having another fantastic season for the Guardians, leading the team with 25 home runs. He has posted four in August alone, including a two-home run game on Tuesday.

One reason we love this home run prop bet is that Ramirez has been elite when at home this season. He has a .331 average, .508 slugging, and a .906 OPS in 2025 while playing in Cleveland. 

Ramirez will be facing lefty Joey Wentz (3-3, 5.03 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) on the mound to start tonight’s game. The 27-year-old has been traded twice since June 1 thanks to shaky pitching throughout the season. He’s an excellent matchup for Ramirez, who has an OPS of .906 against left-handed pitching this season.

Get Ten 100% Profit Boost Tokens at Caesars With a $1 Bet