Best MLB Home Run Props Today: Counting on Castellanos in Philly Tonight

Nick Castellanos is the superstar he once was, but he remains a dangerous part of this Phillies lineup. With a familiar foe on the mound, we expect the former All-Star to put up some big numbers tonight. Below, we’ll share why we are betting on him to go deep, along with two other home run prop bets we love.

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We’ll be using the odds for our bets below that Caesars Sportsbook provides. If you’d like to give Caesars a try, use promo code WSN20X to claim a “Bet $1, Double Your Winnings” offer.

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Nick Castellanos Anytime Home Run (+380) at Caesars Sportsbook

The former All-Star has been a shadow of his former self in 2025, batting .255 with 16 home runs and 61 RBI this season. That has sportsbooks giving him long odds to go deep tonight, and we are jumping on the chance to win some money.

As bad as Castellanos has been, most of his struggles have come on the road. At home, he owns a .290 average and has hit 10 of his 16 home runs. Those are strong numbers, but they aren’t the main reason we love this bet.

We are rushing to lock this longshot bet in due to Bryce Elder (5-9, 6.12 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) being on the mound for Atlanta. The 26-year-old has regressed significantly in 2025, struggling badly to make contact. He has also been giving up plenty of home runs, with 20 allowed over 22 starts this season.

The ice-cold pitcher won’t be looking forward to facing the veteran Phillies outfielder. Castellanos has faced Elder eight times and has taken him deep four times.

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Brandon Lowe Anytime Home Run (+400) at Caesars Sportsbook

When we see Nationals’ starter Mitchell Parker on the mound, we know we’ve found a great home run prop bet. The young lefty started the season looking solid, but has fallen apart since July 1. He’s 2-6 with an 8.93 ERA since then, allowing nine home runs over nine starts.

While 22-year-old slugger Junior Caminero seems like an obvious choice, he’s batting .200 when outside of Tampa’s minor league stadium. That led us to look at veteran Brandon Lowe, who has 26 home runs despite missing a good chunk of games in July. While he’s batting just .220 in August, he has still gone deep seven times for 14 RBIs.

Look for Parker to struggle early, giving the second baseman plenty of chances to send one of the wall.

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Yordan Alvarez Anytime Home Run (+225) at Caesars Sportsbook

After an unexpectedly long stint on the IL, the Houston Astros finally have Yordan Alvarez back in the lineup. The slugger isn’t showing signs of rust, launching a home run in his second game since returning. While the long injury has his season numbers looking ugly, this is still the same slugger who has hit 30+ home runs in four consecutive seasons. 

Alvarez should see plenty of good pitches with Tyler Anderson (2-8, 4.73 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) starting for the Angels. The veteran has been terrible for the past three months. He is 0-6 with a 5.89 since June 1, allowing a whopping 17 home runs during that span. He’s allowed eight home runs over his last four starts, and that won’t change tonight. 

Alvarez has faced Anderson 21 times and posted a .381 average with three home runs.

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