Best MLB Home Run Props Today: Julio Rodriguez Getting Hot at the Right Time

The Seattle Mariners have seen their offense pick up in the second half of the season, thanks mainly to Julio Rodriguez Jr. The five-tool player has 30 home runs, as well as 25 stolen bases, putting him in elite company. With the Mariners pushing to wrestle the AL West away from the Astros, J-Rod has a chance to do something special over the final few weeks of the season.

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Below, we’ll share why we are betting on the young Mariners star to go deep, along with two other home run props we like. All three of our wagers use odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook. If you’d like to give Caesars a try, use promo code WSNDYW to claim a “Bet $1, Double Your Winnings” offer.

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Home Run Picks for Thursday, September 11

Bryan Reynolds Anytime Home Run (+425) at Caesars Sportsbook

This bet is less about Bryan Reynols and more about Orioles starter Cade Povich (3-7, 1.46 WHIP, 5.16 ERA). The lefty was one of the team’s top prospects, but hasn’t looked the part in 2025. He is 1-2 with a 5.17 ERA over his last six starts, leading Baltimore to lose five of those games. The lone win came last week, but Povich still allowed four runs on seven hits and three walks over five innings.

Povich isn’t known for giving up a bunch of home runs, but that’s what he’s been doing lately. He has surrendered four long balls over his last three starts (14 ⅔ ). He’s been especially vulnerable at home, where he has allowed 12 of his 16 home runs and owns a .286 OBA.

The Pirates lack a true power hitter, but Reynolds is second on the team with 15 home runs. He’s also batting .300 over the last week, making him the Pirates' hottest hitter. Add in his ability to hit from both sides of the plate, and you can see why we expect him to beat up on Povich today.

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Julio Rodriguez Jr. Anytime Home Run (+380) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Seattle star has managed to recapture the form from his impressive 2022 rookie campaign. All of his numbers are trending up since the All-Star break, and his 30 home runs have him on pace to set a new career high. While his best work has come on the road this season, his hot bat is worth backing regardless of where he’s playing.

J-Rod will be facing veteran starter Jose Soriano (10-10, 1.37 WHIP, 4.07 ERA) and the Angels tonight. The veteran saw his scoreless streak come crashing down in his last start, allowing eight runs on five hits and five walks. His road numbers are strong, but his numbers against Rodriguez aren’t. In 12 at-bats, the multi-talented star has six hits, two of which were home runs.

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Fernando Tatis Jr. Anytime Home Run (+255) at Caesars Sportsbook

Tatis hasn’t been the same kind of slugger since being suspended for PEDs, but he still is a 20-20 player. He has 20 long balls this season, with two coming over the last week. Of those 20, 13 came at home, where he will be playing tonight. Tatis can be a dicey home run bet, but he has a favorable matchup with the Rockies coming to town.

Colorado will be sending McCade Brown (0-3, 2.36 WHIP, 12.54 ERA), who made his MLB debut on August 24. He has struggled badly over three starts, one of which came against this Padres team. San Diego posted six home runs over the first 1 ⅔ innings, which included a home run from Tatis.

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