Best MLB Home Run Props Today: Springer Closing the Season Strong

The Toronto Blue Jays are closing in on clinching a surprising AL East title, and George Springer has been a big reason why. He has once again put up impressive power numbers, but he’s also on pace to finish with the best batting average of his long career. Below, we’ll share why we like the star to go deep tonight, along with two other prop bets we love.

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All three of our wagers use odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook. If you’d like to give Caesars a try, use promo code WSNDYW to claim a “Bet $1, Double Your Winnings” offer.

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Home Run Picks for Thursday, September 18

Kerry Carpenter Anytime Home Run (+290) at Caesars Sportsbook

Kerry Carpenter is having the best season of his young career, setting a new career record with 26 home runs. We love his chances to add another one tonight for a couple of reasons.

The first is that Carpenter has thrived at home this season. He owns an impressive .937 OPS, and has hit 14 of his 26 home runs, despite playing 33 more games on the road. We saw Carpenter once again show that on Tuesday, launching a home run in his only at-bat of the game.

The other reason we love this bet is tonight’s starter, Tanner Bibee (13-11, 4.44 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). Although he has improved his stats with two starts against weak lineups, he still allows the tenth-most home runs among pitchers in 2025. Combine that with the fact that he owns a 5.42 ERA and allowed 19 of his 27 home runs on the road this season, and you can see why we are backing Carpenter tonight.

Carpenter has faced Bibee 11 times, achieving a .365 average and a home run.

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Jackson Merrill Anytime Home Run (+500) at Caesars Sportsbook

In case you’ve missed it, Jackson Merrill has been on a power tear in September. He has hit five of his 14 home runs over the last seven games, and isn’t showing signs of slowing down. He opened this series going 2-4 with a home run, and he’ll have a great chance to repeat that tonight.

The Mets will be sending one of their top prospects on the mound today in Jonah Tong (1-2, 8.49 ERA, 1.71 WHIP). The 22-year-old hasn’t shown any signs that he is ready for big league competition. He didn’t allow a home run in his last start, but that’s due to his failure to get through the first innings, allowing six runs on four hits and three walks. In his previous start, he allowed three home runs.

Merrill’s hot bat will be a nightmare for the young pitcher, leading to at least one deep ball.

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George Springer Anytime Home Run (+290) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Jays’ slugger is having the best season of his impressive career. His 29 home runs are short of his career high of 39, and his .305 average is the best of his career, showing how well he is seeing the ball. That has led to five home runs so far in September, and he’ll add another in Tampa’s spring training stadium today.

Springer and the Jays will be facing Shane Baz (9-12, 5.15 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) to start this game. While he hasn’t allowed a home run through 13 ⅓ innings this month, he has given up 26 on the season, the 12th most of any pitcher. Of those 16, 18 have come at home, where he owns a 6.28 ERA.

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