Best MLB Home Run Props Today: NL Central Rivals Fight For a Trip to the NLCS

The Chicago Cubs are taking a short trip north to take on the Milwaukee Brewers for a chance to reach the NLCS. They have won the last two games, but things will be far more difficult on the road tonight. While there are plenty of great bets on the board, a pair of home run props stand above the rest. 

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Home Run Picks for Saturday, October 11

Jackson Chourio Anytime Home Run (+420) at Caesars Sportsbook

An injury hasn’t stopped Jackson Chourio from delivering at the plate during the NLDS. He is batting .467 with a 1.267 OPS over the first four games. He’s gone deep once while adding a pair of doubles. His best work came at home, where he hit his lone home run and went 5-7 at the plate.

The Cubs haven’t announced a starter for tonight, but Chourio has been stellar against Chicago’s pitching over his career. He’s batting .340 against their NL Central rival, posting two home runs, five doubles, one triple, and a .949 OPS. 

While Chourio is only 21 years old, he has proven he can handle the pressure of the MLB postseason. While we discussed his impressive numbers from this run, the young superstar was also great in the Crew’s 2024 playoff run, batting .455 with two home runs over three games.

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Ian Happ Anytime Home Run (+525) at Caesars Sportsbook

Ian Happ has homered twice against the Brewers during the NLDS, including in Game 4. Happ had 23 long balls on the season, two of which came over 12 games against the Brewers.

We don’t know who Milwaukee will start tonight, but it will likely be Quinn Priester or Jose Quintana on the mound. While Happ hasn’t hit a home run against either, he does own a .353 average against them. Combine that with his uptick in power during this series, and you can see why we are backing him to do deep today. 

As much talent and power as the Cubs have, many of those stars have not been great during October. The veteran Happ hasn’t been much better, but he showed that he is capable of delivering a long ball in big spots, which he will certainly face tonight. 

Happ is batting .350 at Milwaukee’s American Family Field with one home run and a .959 OPS this season.

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