Best NRFI Bets Today: Continue to Back Noah Cameron and the Kansas City Royals Defense

Negative regression looms large over the St. Louis Cardinals offense as they are set to face off against Noah Cameron who has quietly been one of the more dominant pitchers in the league this season. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards a NL West division matchup between the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants as both underwhelming lineups are set to face off against a pair of productive arms.

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Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Noah Cameron vs. Miles Mikolas (7:45 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even though the sample size is small, Noah Cameron has been dominant as the Kansas City Royals pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 1.05, a WHIP of 0.818, and a FIP of 3.78. A major reason for his success stems from his ability to avoid contact at a consistent rate as Cameron also averages just 3.25 Hits Allowed per game.

Every bit of his production will be needed against St. Louis as he faces off against a Cardinals offense who ranks above league average in Contact Rate. Fortunately for Cameron, he is supported by a back end who ranks seventh overall in Defensive Efficiency. Their elite coverage helps reduce the amount of contact variance in his starts which increases his chances of escaping the first inning without conceding an Earned Run.

On the other side of the field, Miles Mikolas is in a more favorable position to succeed as he battles it out against a Royals offense who ranks near the bottom of the board in On Base Percentage and in Team Total Runs. Against Mikolas, the Royals struggles on offense are poised to persist as the Cardinals pitcher heads into Wednesday’s contest averaging an ERA of 3.90 and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

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San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants - Nick Pivetta vs. Kyle Harrison (9:45 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After ranking near the top of the board in most key offensive metrics in 2024, the San Diego Padres offense have fallen hard back down to reality this season. As of writing, the Padres star studded lineup ranks below league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, Bases on Walks, and in On Base Percentage.

In a NL West divisional matchup against the San Francisco Giants, the Padres offense will continue to underwhelm as they face off against Kyle Harrison who excels at creating Whiffs. In his six appearances, the Giants rotational pitcher is averaging over one Strikeout per Inning Pitched, an ERA of 2.51, a WHIP of 0.977, and a FIP of 3.91.

Like the Padres, the Giants offense have also struggled to play at a competitive level as they currently rank near the bottom of the board in the same previously mentioned metrics. On Wednesday night, expect the Giants offense to continue to struggle as they face off against Nick Pivetta who excels at avoiding contact by averaging less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched and an ERA of 2.74.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Ryan Gusto vs. Mike Burrows - Expect the Houston Astros offense to continue to climb up the board in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage as they face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates Mike Burrows who currently averages an ERA of 8.64, a WHIP of 1.560, and a FIP of 8.36.

• New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Griffin Canning vs. Tony Gonsolin - With Tony Gonsolin averaging nearly two runners on base and over one Hit Against per Inning Pitched, the New York Mets top of their order are in a favorable position to thrive as they excel at making contact as their above league average mark in Team Total Hits indicates.

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