Best NRFI Bets Today: Positive Regression Looms Large Over Lance McCullers Jr

The Houston Astros Lance McCullers Jr has the opportunity to round back into form as he faces off against a Chicago White Sox offense who ranks near dead last in most key metrics. Before their opening pitch, we turn our attention towards the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals as both top of their orders are due for some regression in a matchup against two productive pitchers.

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Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros - Shane Smith vs. Lance McCullers Jr (8:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It has been an unfortunate start to the year for Lance McCullers Jr as the Houston Astros pitcher heads into Tuesday’s contest against the Chicago White Sox averaging an ERA of 4.44 and a WHIP of 1.397. While his current marks in ERA and WHIP may seem alarming at first glance, it’s worth noting that McCullers Jr is also averaging a FIP of 3.93 and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

Luckily for McCullers Jr, positive regression looms large as he is set to face off against a White Sox offense who ranks near dead last in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Especially with his back end providing him a high level of support as the Astros defense ranks top-10 in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

While McCullers Jr has struggled, Shane Smith has thrived as the White Sox pitcher is averaging an ERA of 2.45 and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. With the Astros offense struggling to bring home their runners as their low marks in Total Runs Scored and RBIs indicates, Smith will have the opportunity to sustain his high level of play on the mound and finish the first inning without conceding an Earned Run.

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New York Yankees vs. Noah Cameron - Max Fried vs. Noah Cameron (7:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Since joining the New York Yankees, Max Fried has quickly shot up the oddsboard for the AL Cy Young award as the newly acquired pitcher is averaging an ERA of 1.78, a WHIP of 0.938, and a FIP of 2.78. Even though his Strikeout Rate is low, Fried still excels at avoiding contact by averaging less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

In a matchup against the Kansas City Royals, Fried will have a great opportunity to strengthen his claim for the pitchers award as he faces off against an offense who ranks in the bottom ten in Total Runs Scored, RBIs, and in On Base Percentage. Their lack of control hurts their ability to get on base as the Royals also rank dead last in Bases on Walks.

On the other side of the field, the Yankees offense faces one of their toughest tests yet with Noah Cameron set to take the mound. While the sample size is small, Cameron has still been dominant in his starts as the Royals pitcher is averaging an ERA of 0.85 and less than 0.5 a Hit per Inning Pitched. The Royals back end also excels in coverage as their defense ranks ninth in Defensive Efficiency.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies - Kyle Harrison vs. Carson Palmquist - The San Francisco Giants offense are in a favorable position to open up the scoring early on in their contest against Colorado as they face off against Carson Palmquist who is averaging an ERA of 8.50, a WHIP of 1.833, and a FIP of 6.23.

• Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians - Andrew Abbott vs. Slade Cecconi - With Slade Cecconi averaging over one Hit Against per Inning Pitched and a WHIP of 1.426, expect his struggles on the mound to persist as he faces off against a Cincinnati offense who ranks above league average in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage.

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