Best NRFI Bets Today: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Brewers and Mariners

With Quinn Priester and Luis Castillo set to take the mound, expect the Milwaukee Brewers and Seattle Mariners bats to cool off as both pitchers excel at avoiding contact. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the AL East divisional matchup between the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays as both lineups face off against a pair of defenses who rank in the top half of the board in Defensive Efficiency.

Looking for more MLB betting insights? Check our selection of the Best MLB Home Run Props Today.

Odds provided by Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Bet $5 and instantly receive $150 in bonus bets in the form of six $25 bets.

If classic sportsbooks are not available in your state, try one of the best social sportsbooks to get in on the MLB action. See our selection below.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Seattle Mariners - Quinn Priester vs. Luis Castillo (3:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

After getting off to a slow start to the season, the Milwaukee Brewers offense have seemingly hit their stride as their lineup ranks above league average in Team Total Hits and in On Base Percentage. Even though Milwaukee has managed to generate Hits at a more consistent rate, they have failed to turn them into extra bases as the Brewers also rank 22nd overall in Slugger Percentage.

Against Seattle, the Brewers struggles with getting into scoring position are poised to persist as they are set to face off against Luis Castillo who excels at avoiding contact. In his 20 starts, Castillo is averaging an ERA of 3.21 and less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched. Castillo is also supported by a back end who grades out well in coverage as the Mariners defense ranks top-10 in Fielding Percentage.

As for Quinn Priester, the Brewers pitcher is in a favorable position to generate a higher rate of Whiffs as he faces off against a Mariners offense who ranks top-5 in Strikeout Rate. Seattle’s struggles with making contact will be on full display against Priester as he enters the contest averaging an ERA of 3.33, a FIP of 3.96, and less than five Hits Against per game.

Bet $5 at Hard Rock Bet and Claim $150 in Bonus Bets

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Max Fried vs. Chris Bassitt (7:07 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

It’s been a productive 2025 campaign for the New York Yankees newly acquired pitcher as Max Fried has managed to earn All Star honors while leading the AL in Pitcher Wins. While his Strikeout Rate is low, Fried has had no issue with keeping opposing runners off the bases as he is currently averaging an ERA of 2.43, a WHIP of 1.008, and less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched.

Even though the Toronto Blue Jays rank above league average in Contact Rate, Slugger Percentage, and in Total Runs Scored, Fried possesses more than enough individual production to neutralize their offense as his FIP of 3.03 indicates. Especially when he is supported by a productive back end as the Yankees defense ranks second overall in Defensive Efficiency and 14th in Fielding Percentage.

On the other side of the field, Chris Bassitt also draws a tough assignment as he is set to face off against reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge and the vaunted Yankees offense. Fortunately for Bassitt, his back end helps reduce the amount of contact variance in his starts as the Blue Jays rank top-15 in Defensive Efficiency. With both pitchers in a position to thrive, expect no runs to be scored in the first inning.

Get $150 in Bonus Bets at Hard Rock Bet With a $5 Wager

Best YRFI Bets Today

• Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Chris Paddack vs. Tyler Glasnow - The Los Angeles Dodgers have a great opportunity to open up the scoring early on in their contest against the Minnesota Twins as they are set to battle it out against Chris Paddack who is currently averaging an ERA of 5.14 and a FIP of 4.50.

• Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Lucas Giolito vs. Jesus Luzardo - Expect the Boston Red Sox offense to round back into competitive form on Wednesday night as they face off against the Philadelphia Phillies Jesus Luzardo who is averaging over one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched and a WHIP of 1.431.

Wager $5 at Hard Rock Bet and Claim $150 in Bonus Bets

Get One Month of MLB.TV With a $5 Bet on FanDuel

Visit FanDuel today and get one month of MLB.tv with a single $5+ bet on any MLB market. You don't even need to worry about the bet outcome; win or lose, you'll get a full month subscription. This offer is valid until August 1st, so hit the button below to claim it today.

Bet $5 and Get One Month of MLB.tv at FanDuel