Best NRFI Bets Today: Value in the AL Central

The Royals take on the Twins in a division matchup on Friday. This highlights one of my favorite NRFI wagers on Friday’s slate.

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Royals vs. Twins - Seth Lugo vs. Joe Ryan (8:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-140) at Hard Rock Sportsbook

Kansas City and Minnesota are nowhere close to the top of the AL Central, but the starting pitching in this matchup is outstanding. Seth Lugo will get the ball for the Royals against Joe Ryan and the Twins.

Lugo enters this contest with an 8-5 record and an ERA of 3.06. He has been terrific in his last three starts, allowing only seven runs in 16.1 innings.

Lugo has struck out 107 batters in 123.1 innings, indicating he can navigate the bases effectively with his strikeout ability. This is particularly useful when selecting NRFI bets, especially if the pitcher struggles in the first inning.

Ryan has dominated the league in 2025, posting a 10-5 record with a 2.83 ERA. In his last start, he pitched six innings, allowing two runs against the Guardians.

Ryan has great strikeout ability as he has fanned 141 batters in 127.1 innings. The pitcher’s 0.93 WHIP is one of the best in baseball, and I think he continues his dominance on Friday.

Both offenses rank in the bottom half of the league in team batting average. If both pitchers attack the strike zone, this NRFI should cash.

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Mets vs. Brewers - Kodai Senga vs. Brandon Woodruff (8:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at Hard Rock Sportsbook

The Mets will battle the hottest team in baseball on Friday with Kodai Senga leading them into battle. Kodai Senga will get the start for New York against Brandon Woodruff and Milwaukee.

The Mets' offense has been nonexistent as of late, as they almost got no-hit against Gavin Williams earlier this week. Their task will be much more arduous against Brandon Woodruff on Friday.

Woodruff is 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA this season. He has only started five games in 2025, but he has been excellent for Milwaukee.

In Woodruff’s last three starts, he has pitched 18 innings, allowing only four earned runs. In this span, he has struck out 19 batter,s and I think he will keep this going against the Mets.

Senga enters this matchup at 7-3 with a 2.31 ERA. He has struck out 82 batters and has a 1.25 WHIP in 89.2 innings.

It’s scary fading Milwaukee’s offense with how well they have been playing recently, but Senga has all the pieces to shut them down.

The Brewers have the third-highest team batting average, hitting .256 as a club. The Mets have been the complete opposite as they are hitting .241, which is the eighth worst in baseball.

I trust in Senga and Woodruff’s ability to take the offenses out of the game and expect a low-scoring affair.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Rockies vs. Diamondbacks - Austin Gomber vs. Zac Gallen: Gomber is winless on the season and has a 6.18 ERA. Gallen is also having his worst season, posting an ERA of 5.48 and an 8-12 record. 

• Athletics vs Orioles - J.T. Ginn vs. Tomoyuki Sugano: Both starters have ERAs over 4.00 and have been highly inconsistent.

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