Best NRFI Bets Today: Paul Skenes Day In Pittsburgh

Paul Skenes takes the mound for the Pirates against Blake Snell on Thursday. This is one of my favorite NRFI bets of the season because of the excellent pitching matchup.

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Phillies vs. Brewers - Ranger Suarez vs. Freddy Peralta (4:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-140) at Hard Rock Sportsbook

Two playoff teams square off in Milwaukee on Thursday, with the Brewers and the Phillies. Both offenses have been very impressive this season, but I’m focusing on this pitching matchup.

Ranger Suarez gets the start for Philadelphia against Freddy Peralta and the Milwaukee Brewers. If both pitchers are on their game, I expect limited runs in this contest.

Suarez comes into this matchup with a 10-6 record and a 3.02 ERA. In his last three starts, he has pitched 18.2 innings, allowing just three earned runs.

Suarez is reliable because of his strikeout ability in high-leverage situations. He allowed ten hits in his last start and still managed to escape, allowing just one run.

Peralta is 16-5 this year with a 2.58 ERA. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball down the stretch, and Milwaukee will need him to keep this going in September and October.

Peralta has not allowed a single run in his last three starts in 17 innings of work. In this span, he has only allowed four hits and has fanned 20 batters.

I trust these pitchers a ton in this matchup, even with the solid offenses. I expect Suarez and Peralta to go deep into this game, but it all starts with six outs in the first inning.

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Dodgers vs. Pirates - Blake Snell vs. Paul Skenes (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-170) at Hard Rock Sportsbook

My second NRFI for Thursday could be a bet of the year candidate. The Dodgers and Pirates both have potent offenses, but their pitchers should prevail in their respective battles.

The Dodgers will start Blake Snell against Paul Skenes of the Pirates. Skenes is one of the best pitchers in baseball and is currently the heavy favorite to win the NL Cy Young award.

Snell enters this contest at 3-3 with a 2.41 ERA. What separates him from most is his strikeout ability, as he is averaging over a K per inning.

Snell’s 2025 sample size is small, but when he is healthy, he is very good. He is coming off an eight-strikeout performance, and I think he could repeat this on Thursday.

Skenes has been dominant again in 2025, boasting an ERA of 2.05 and a 0.95 WHIP. He has allowed just three runs in his last three starts, accompanied by 21 strikeouts.

Skenes is a big time strikeout pitcher, striking out 187 batters in 167 innings. He will be motivated to face a loaded Dodgers lineup, and he will deliver his best performance.

Los Angeles is hitting .253 as a club in 2025, which is the fifth-best in baseball. Skenes will have to dominate, but he is capable.

I trust both Snell and Skenes to shut the offenses down to cash this NRFI.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Angels vs. Royals - Kyle Hendricks vs. Seth Lugo: Lugo was in the Cy Young talks a season ago, but this year, he has been very inconsistent. Hendricks is getting worse with age, and there will likely be a ton of runs in this matchup. 

• White Sox vs. Twins - Shane Smith vs. Taj Bradley: Bradley has a 4.82 ERA, and Smith hasn’t been much better. Both arms give up the long ball and walk a ton of hitters.

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