Best NRFI Bets Today: Jesus Luzardo Takes the Ball

I have found two NRFI bets I like on the nine-game MLB slate for Thursday. The pitching matchups aren’t the greatest, but there are two games with considerable value.

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Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook is where I’m getting the odds for the bets. New customers can get $150 in bonus bets if their first $5 wager wins on the app and they sign up through our exclusive link.

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Rays vs. White Sox - Ian Seymour vs. Shane Smith (2:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at Hard Rock Sportsbook

The White Sox have the fourth-worst team batting average in baseball, and I’m fading them against the Rays. Chicago will start Shane Smith against Ian Seymour and Tampa Bay.

Seymour has been great in 2025, entering this matchup with a 3-1 record and a 2.89 ERA. He should have no problem retiring the White Sox lineup in the first inning.

Seymour only has 37.1 innings on the season, but he has allowed just two earned runs in his last two starts. I’m going to ride the hot hand, and I expect Seymour to dominate on Thursday.

Smith’s numbers aren’t the greatest, but he hasn’t been all that bad this season. He has a 3.95 ERA and has struck out 118 batters in 125.1 innings.

Smith is coming off a rough start as he allowed four runs in five innings against Detroit. I expect him to bounce back against a solid Rays offense.

If walks are kept to a minimum from both pitchers, then this NRFI will easily cash. Tampa Bay has some pop at the top of their lineup, but Smith is a big strikeout pitcher.

This NRFI will take both defenses being solid in the first inning and not making any mistakes with pitches over the plate.

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Mets vs. Phillies - David Peterson vs. Jesus Luzardo (7:15 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-115) at Hard Rock Sportsbook

My favorite NRFI wager of the day comes in a matchup between the Mets and Phillies. Both offenses are solid, but I love the pitching matchup.

New York will start David Peterson against Jesus Luzardo and Philadelphia. The total for this game is listed at 8.5 runs.

Peterson enters this game at 9-5 with a 3.72 ERA. He has fanned 140 batters on the season in 157.1 innings. Peterson has had a walk issue recently, but he is due for a good start against the Phillies' offense.

Luzardo has been dominant in 2025 as he is 13-6 and has been controlling the strike zone. He has one of the best strikeout arms in baseball, as he has fanned 190 batters in 161.2 innings.

In Luzardo’s last two starts, he has pitched 12.2 innings, allowing just two runs while striking out 15 batters. If Luzardo is on his game, he shouldn’t have a problem retiring the Mets in the first inning.

Both offenses rank in the top ten in team batting average, as Philadelphia is hitting .258, which is the third best in the league. New York is hitting .250 as a club, which isn’t far behind the Phillies.

Even with these great offenses, I trust the starting pitching to limit runs in the first inning.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Nationals vs. Marlins - MacKenzie Gore vs. Ryan Weathers: These starting pitchers have a combined record of 6-14. The ERAs are also not the greatest, and I expect a ton of runs in this matchup. 

• Rockies vs. Padres - McCade Brown vs. Randy Vasquez: Brown is 0-3 with a 12.54 ERA. The Padres should take advantage of this opportunity and score runs early and often.

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