Superspeedway racing means that the unexpected is a factor at any time.
This should definitely be taken into account for this weekend's props.
Although pack racing at Talladega hasn't been as wild in recent years, it always adds some spice to the mix.
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How to Watch
What: GEICO 500
Where: Talladega Superspeedway in Talladega, AL
When: Sunday, April 28th at 2:00 PM EST
How: Fox Sports (TV) | Motor Racing Network (Web radio)
Will Ryan Blaney Score Stage Points?
That's an easy pick to get things started.
Blaney has scored at least one stage point in each of his four Cup Series starts at Talladega.
This season, the Team Penske driver scored stage points in seven races out of a possible nine.
With Talladega being one of Penske's favorite hunting grounds, Blaney is well on the way for more stage points.
Over/Under 26.5 Lead Changes
While Talladega averaged 26.3 lead changes over the last three years, that number dropped significantly in 2018.
This statistic gets a significant boost from races with 30-plus changes at the lead.
That has also been the trend for Daytona.
This year's edition of the 500 saw 15 changes at the top spot.
Another Win for Team Penske?
Penske has dominated the action at Talladega.
The powerhouse won six of the last ten races at the superspeedway.
Brad Keselowski leads all active drivers with five wins at the track.
Joey Logano has three wins, visiting the winner's circle at Talladega in 2015, 2016 as well as last season.
Ford has a seven-race winning streak going at the superspeedway.
With Keselowski, Logano and Ryan Blaney all in contention, Penske is the early favorite.
Over/Under 5.5 Ford Drivers Inside the Top 10
While Ford is the car to beat at Talladega with seven consecutive wins, the top 10 is a different matter.
The blue oval manufacturer doesn't have a lot of firepower outside of powerhouses Stewart-Haas and Team Penske.
Superspeedway specialist Ricky Stenhouse Jr. could also be in the mix, but that's a total of eight drivers.
In other words, Ford would only be allowed two misses, which is cutting incredibly close.
The manufacturer only had 6 cars inside the top 10 once over the last 10 races at Talladega.
Over/Under 6.5 Stage Points for Kurt Busch
Kurt Busch usually moves towards the front of the field in the latter stages of the race.
The Chip Ganassi driver has only gone over that number twice this season.
At Talladega, Busch has scored seven stage points or more two times in four races.
Will Sunday's Winner Start Outside the Top 15?
The winner started outside the top 15 four times in 26 superspeedway races during the Gen 6 era.
That happened three times at Talladega and only once at Daytona.
With such lopsided numbers, it's fair to say that starting inside the winner will likely start inside the top 15.
A Top 10 Finish for Ricky Stenhouse Jr?
Stenhouse has a good record at Talladega.
The Roush-Fenway Racing driver has four top 5 finishes in the last five races, including his first career victory.
Despite Roush's recent struggles, Stenhouse has done well at superspeedways.
Given Ford's dominance at Talladega, another top 10 is a likely result.
Over/Under 10.5 Laps Led by Sunday's Winner
The winner went well under that number in two of the last four races at Talladega.
However, since the Gen 6's introduction, the trend points to the winner leading the race for at least 11 laps.
It was also the case for Daytona this season, with Denny Hamlin heading the pack for 30 laps.
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