Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions in Week 1: An Uptick in Possessions Favors the Bengals

• Cincinnati’s Tee Higgins rivaled Ja’Marr Chase in total red zone targets last season

• Cleveland’s front four ranked 22nd in Blitz Rate and 27th in Pressure Rate

• Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown generated a Red Zone Target Share of 60.7%

After failing to address their defense in the offseason, the Cincinnati Bengals may see a sizable increase in their number of possessions on offense while playing in high-scoring affairs. This shades value towards their anytime touchdown market as their skill players will see an uptick in their number of red zone targets.

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Tee Higgins Anytime Touchdown 1 (+145) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After locking up Tee Higgins to a long term contract, the Cincinnati Bengals' pass attack are expected to carry over their momentum into this season as they ranked top-5 in Pass DVOA, EPA, and in Success Rate. Even when receiving minimal support from his offensive line, this year’s betting favorite for the NFL MVP award Joe Burrow still had no issue with moving the ball down the field through the air.

The Bengals offense will have the opportunity to get into scoring position at a consistent rate as the Cleveland Browns' secondary struggles in coverage as their near dead last mark in Def Pass DVOA indicates. With the Browns forced to shade their safeties towards Chase, Higgins will have more space to work with to help increase the quality of Burrow’s passing lanes inside the 20.

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Chase Brown Anytime Touchdown 2 (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

The Bengals running back Chase Brown is also in a position to thrive as the Browns' low blitz rate means he will face less resistance when he enters the trenches. The Browns were heavily reliant on just their front four to clog rushing lanes last season as they ranked 22nd in Blitz Rate and 27th in Pressure Rate.

With the Bengals possessing arguably the best pass attack in the league, the Browns will be forced to anchor their linebackers in coverage which will lead to wider rushing lanes for Brown to exploit. This also serves as a reminder to line shop as Brown’s odds to score a touchdown can be found as high as -155 to score a touchdown which is a difference of $30 in a locked up wager while returning the same amount of profit.

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Brian Thomas Jr. Anytime Touchdown 3 (+125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

With the Carolina Panthers in desperate need of improving their back end, they made the head-scratching decision to beef up their front four instead by selecting a pair of edge rushers in the NFL draft. While the Panthers should improve in the pass rush department, it’s tough to envision their secondary following suit after finishing 32nd in Def Pass Success Rate.

Their struggles with defending the pass bodes well for Brian Thomas Jr as the Jacksonville Jaguars receiver excels at exploiting opposing gaps in coverage while comfortably leading the team in total targets with a Team Target Share of 25.5%. With Travis Hunter joining the fray, Thomas may also experience less double teams which increases his chances of getting open.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown 4 (+145) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Sunday’s NFC North divisional matchup just got more exciting after the Green Bay Packers traded for star edge rusher Micah Parsons. While Parsons should bolster Green Bay’s pass rush, the Packers still have major question marks lingering over their secondary.

With the Packers' cornerbacks struggling to stay on opposing pass catchers hips as their near dead last mark in Def Pass Success Rate implies, Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown should have no issue with breaking free and providing Goff a high-quality passing lane. St. Brown is also a target monster when inside the 20 as he finished last season with a Red Zone Target Share of 60.7%.

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