The Atlanta Falcons' Bijan Robinson is averaging five Yards per Carry
Justin Jefferson leads the Minnesota Vikings in total Red Zone Targets
The Carolina Panthers rank near dead last in Run Defense Success Rate
Even though the Atlanta Falcons' offense have failed to play at a competitive level, their lack of production has not impacted Bijan Robinson's odds for NFL Offensive Player of the Year, as he is currently averaging five Yards per Carry. In Sunday’s NFC South divisional matchup against Carolina, expect Bijan to continue to thrive as he faces off against a Panthers front seven who struggles to stop the run.
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Since the start of the regular season, Bijan Robinson has been able to consistently reach the second level of the defense as the Atlanta Falcons' star running back ranks above league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. Robinson’s success can be attributed to the support he receives from his offensive line as the Falcons' front five resides near the top of the board in Run Block PFF Grade.
In Sunday’s divisional contest against Carolina, expect Bijan to routinely gash the Panthers' defense as he faces off against a front seven who ranks in the bottom five in Run Defense Success Rate. For some more exposure, escalator bet Robinson’s anytime touchdown scorer prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals at the best available odds across multiple NFL betting sites.
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After neglecting their defense in the offseason, the Chicago Bears have failed to play at a competitive level on that side of the field as they head into Sunday ranked below league average in Def DVOA and in EPA. Their lack of pass rush has played a major role in their struggles this season as the Bears' front seven continues to plummet down the board in Pass Rush Set Grade and in Pressure Rate.
Their inability to generate pressure bodes well for JJ McCarthy as the Minnesota Vikings quarterback will be able to operate in a clean pocket which will help reduce the amount of Havoc in his throws. When in scoring position, expect McCarthy to continue to look towards Justin Jefferson’s way as the Vikings wide receiver currently leads the team in total Red Zone Targets with a 35.5% Target Share.
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After scoring just two touchdowns last year, Trey McBride has already tripled that amount this season in just nine games. McBride’s ability to create space when inside the 20 helps create high-quality passing lanes for Jacoby Brissett to throw to as the Arizona Cardinals tight end leads the team in total Red Zone Targets while converting six of his 11 Receptions into touchdowns.
While a matchup against San Francisco looks daunting on paper, the 49ers' defense have actually severely underwhelmed as their defense ranks 27th overall in Pass Rush Win Rate. With the 49ers struggling to get in the backfield, McBride will have more time in the open field to break away from their coverage which will increase his chances of hauling in a touchdown.
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On the other side of the field, Christian McCaffrey will have a great opportunity to round back into form as the 49ers running back faces off against a Cardinals defense who struggles to stop the run as their below league average mark in Run Defense PFF Grade indicates. To help cut through the juice, place a wager on McCaffrey to score multiple touchdowns as the 49ers' ability to sustain drives down the field by keeping the ball on the ground will lead to an uptick in his total number of scoring opportunities.
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