Best Bills vs. Broncos Prop Bets: Negative Regression Looms Large Over Josh Allen

• The Denver Broncos are the number one overall seed in the AFC

• Josh Allen averaged 6.5 Rush Attempts per game in the regular season

• The Broncos' defense ranks above league average in Pass Rush PFF Grade

In his previous matchup against Jacksonville, Josh Allen managed to put together a dominant performance as the Buffalo Bills' star quarterback finished the contest throwing for 273 yards while completing 80.0% of his passes. Heading into the divisional round, negative regression looms large over Allen as he faces off against the Denver Broncos who excel at generating pressure in the backfield.

Best Bills vs. Broncos Prop Bets

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Josh Allen Under 19.5 Pass Completions (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since the start of the regular season, Josh Allen has been able to remain in contention for the MVP award for a majority of the year as he resides near the top of the board in Quarterback EPA per Play. His ability to hit his pass catchers in stride while avoiding Havoc has played a major role in the Bills success on offense as Allen also ranks above league average in Turnover Worthy Play Percentage.

In a divisional round matchup against the Denver Broncos, expect Allen to fall hard back down to reality as he faces off against a front seven who ranks in the top-8 in Def DVOA and in Pass Rush PFF Grade. With the Broncos forcing Allen to get the ball quickly out of his hands, his pass catchers will struggle to create space from their suffocating coverage which lowers his chances of generating a completion.

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Josh Allen Over 7.5 Rush Attempts (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, the Broncos' pressure will force Allen to scramble out of the pocket at a higher rate in order to keep their drives alive which will lead to an uptick in his total number of Rush Attempts. The Bills are also projected to win as the current spread implies, potentially leading to a few kneel downs late in the fourth quarter.

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James Cook Under 78.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Like Allen, James Cook has also been able to play at a very high level as the Bills' running back ranks well above league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. Cook’s success in the backfield can be attributed to the protection he receives from his offensive line as the Bills' front five ranks in the top-5 in Run Block Set Grade.

Unfortunately for Cook, he will struggle to recapture the same success he had in the regular season as he faces off against a Broncos defensive line who excels at stuffing the run as their above league average mark in Run Defense Line Yards indicates. For some more exposure, escalator bet Cook’s Rushing Yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate unders.

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Bo Nix Under 0.5 Interception (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

In his second year with Denver, Bo Nix has managed to turn the Broncos into a viable Super Bowl contender by securing the number one overall seed in the AFC. His ability to take care of the ball while picking apart opposing gaps in coverage have helped limit the amount of variance in their contests as Nix ranks above league average in Big Time Throw Percentage.

Heading into Saturday, expect Nix to continue to thrive as he faces off against a Bills defense who ranks below league average in Pass Rush PFF Grade. With the Bills struggling to create pressure, Nix will be able to avoid having to throw on the run which will help reduce the amount of Havoc in his throws.

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