Best Chiefs vs. Cowboys Prop Bets: Thanksgiving Clash for Return into Playoff Race

• Rashee Rice has surpassed 68 yards in three of his last four games

• Dak Prescott is averaging 267.5 pass yards per game

• Patrick Mahomes has had 91 pass attempts over the previous two weeks

This Thanksgiving features some fantastic matchups, including the one between the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys. These two former dynasties have had a tough first half of the season and currently sit outside of the playoff picture. A win on Thursday will help that, but a loss could make the postseason a distant hope.

Best Chiefs vs. Cowboys Prop Bets

Below, we will share our three favorite prop bets for this Thursday night matchup.

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Rashee Rice Over 68.5 Passing Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook

This is our favorite bet of Thanksgiving weekend. Rashee Rice has been delivering at an elite level since returning from his suspension in Week 7. He easily assumed the top role in the Chiefs’ pass attack and has surpassed this yardage total in three of his last four games. That lone game he went under was against a Broncos team we believe has the best ranked defense in NFL. 

Last week, Rice was held in check early against the Colts, but went off in the second half of the overtime win. He finished the game with eight catches for 141 yards after being targeted a season-high 12 times.

This week, the Chiefs need to add a win to get back into the AFC playoff race. That will lead Patrick Mahomes to have a big game, especially against a Cowboys team with one of the league’s worst defenses. Dallas is allowing opposing quarterbacks to post the third-highest passer rating (107.1) in the NFL this season, which is bad news against the multiple-MVP-winning Mahomes.

Find more details and rankings with our latest NFL MVP predictions and odds.

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Dak Prescott Over 246.5 Passing Yards (-114) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Cowboys' success in 2025 can largely be attributed to Dak Prescott's play. He is averaging 267.4 passing yards per game, trailing only Patrick Mahomes. Javonte Williams’ success as a rusher has opened up the offense more, allowing the quarterback to show why the Cowboys once made him the highest-paid player in the NFL. The result has been Prescott surpassing this yardage total in three straight weeks.

While the Chiefs rank in the top half of the league in passing yards allowed per game (195.4), their pass defense is vulnerable. They're 92.9 opposing passer rating and 7.0 average yards per play rank in the bottom half of the league. A big reason is their pass rush, which ranks in the bottom ten of the NFL in sacks.

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Patrick Mahomes 300+ Passing Yards (+161) at Caesars Sportsbook

Last week, we saw Patrick Mahomes put the Chiefs’ offense on his shoulders to secure a crucial win against a good Colts team. He finished the game, completing 63% of his passes for 352 yards. It wasn’t his best effort, but his ability to move the ball down the field enabled the comeback win.

While Mahomes had only topped 300 yards once before, that is changing. He has attempted at least 45 passes in two consecutive games, meaning he is getting the volume needed to surpass the 300-yard mark. It paid off last week, and will do so again against one of the NFL’s worst defenses.

Dallas ranks thirtieth in passing yards allowed per game (252.3) and thirty-first in touchdowns (24). While they have been better up front, they do not have the depth in their secondary to compete with a Chiefs offense that will be leaning on the pass. We expect Mahomes to throw a ton of passes, leading to well over 300 yards on Thanksgiving.

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